Our third installment of the weekly playoff projections could still be considered a bit too early, but the picture gets a little clearer as time passes, and any leagues which have not already started league play do so this week. This week, we continue the weekly process of identifying our projected seeds for the North Coast Section playoffs. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we will rank teams accordingly each week, and discuss the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
We started the process two weeks ago by seeding the top eight teams in each division, and have now expanded where it becomes evident there will be more teams qualified, up to 12 teams at this stage, rather than the full 16. We will expand this list to a full 16 by the end of the season as more results make it more logical to sort out all schools. We may include teams on the bubble in the rationale section for each division.
OPEN
Projected four teams:
1. De La Salle
2. Pittsburg
3. Clayton Valley Charter
4. Monte Vista
Rationale: Monte Vista was the only one of these four teams to play last week, and they stayed unbeaten with an easy win over Granada. Other results and considered rationale, however, have caused us to flip the Mustangs and Clayton Valley. The largest of these rationale is Reed-Sparks (NV), which has reeled off five straight wins since losing to Clayton Valley, including a 21-point win over Oak Ridge-El Dorado Hills. Also to be considered is the fact that Monte Vista plays De La Salle in the season finale. If the Mustangs are still unbeaten at that point, a win would elevate them to the top seed, while a loss would leave them with an identical record as Clayton Valley (assuming the Ugly Eagles make it through the difficult DAL-Valley Conference unscathed), with both losses to elite opponents.
Pittsburg starts BVAL play this week, and if the Pirates can go unbeaten, with big games looming against Freedom and Antioch, they will deserve the second seed. They have big wins over Serra, Mitty, and Vacaville.
DIVISION I
Projected seeds:
1. Antioch
2. California
3. Freedom
4. Heritage
5. San Leandro
6. Foothill
7. San Ramon Valley
8. Amador Valley
9. American
Rationale: We’re moving Antioch ahead of California in these projections due to the common opponent factor for playoff seedings. Even if Antioch does not win the BVAL (which would likely move it to the Open Division), the Panthers’ seven-point loss makes them a strong candidate for the top seed, unless California can play De La Salle closer than that. Of course, with Antioch and Freedom playing each other to open league play this week, the top three here will get a bit neater looking after this Friday. It’s hard to imagine a Cal team with one last-second loss in league play dropping behind two teams from the BVAL.
Heritage is the big riser here, after a big win over Liberty, and San Leandro’s win over Foothill now takes greater precedence with Liberty needing to pull an upset in the final four weeks in order to become playoff eligible. Heritage goes in front of San Leandro based on Liberty as the common opponent.
Foothill has a win over San Ramon Valley, and appears likely to win at least six games this season if they continue improving like they have shown.
Amador Valley is on the list due to its big win over Granada, but needs to beat Livermore this week in order to stay on track for playoff eligibility. American appears likely to go at least .500 in MVAL play, and therefore become eligible for the post-season.
The positive about being in this bracket will be the opportunity to win a section championship without having to get past De La Salle. The negative will be that there will be no opportunity to advance to a state bowl game.
DIVISION II
Projected seeds:
1. Campolindo
2. Concord
3. Redwood
4. Ukiah
5. Granada
6. Santa Rosa
7. Maria Carrillo
8. Windsor
9. Northgate
10. Montgomery
11. Mt. Eden
12. Livermore
Rationale: As of now, we don’t see any teams in this bracket who are making a case to get selected for the open division. Concord and Campolindo can each stake a claim to the top spot right now, and each have difficult roads ahead, leaving the door open to another team that could make a strong run in league play.
A loss to Clayton Valley in league play will not be enough to knock anyone out of the top spot, so Concord and Campolindo will likely get to settle the argument for the top seed head-to-head, though both will also have to deal with Miramonte. Granada still has to deal with the meat of its EBAL schedule, and its loss to Amador Valley could hurt in seeding, though a win or two against the top half of its league would likely elevate the Matadors to a top-four seed.
Windsor, Montgomery, Santa Rosa, Maria Carrillo, and Ukiah will all play each other in the North Bay League, along with each having to face Cardinal Newman and Rancho Cotate. Ukiah and Maria Carrillo made strong early statements with wins over Santa Rosa and Windsor, respectively. Windsor rebounded with a big win over Montgomery, while Santa Rosa bounced back with a win over Carrillo.
Redwood might have the easiest path to a top four seed, and only has a loss to Marin Catholic. Carrillo’s win over Windsor certainly helps the Giants, who have a 42-21 win over Carrillo, and a win over Mt. Eden.
Northgate remains behind the Windsor team which gave the Broncos its only loss, while Mt. Eden is low right now simply due to strength of schedule. Games against Hayward, who is knocking on the door to this list, and Encinal will determine where the Monarchs end up. Livermore plays a difficult schedule, and has a win over Arroyo, which could eventually be what determines playoff eligibility for the Cowboys.
DIVISION III
Projected seeds:
1. Miramonte
2. Analy
3. Marin Catholic
4. Bishop O’Dowd
5. Kennedy-Fremont
6. Rancho Cotate
7. Encinal
8. Acalanes
9. El Cerrito
10. De Anza
11. Alhambra
12. Eureka
Rationale: Noticeably absent from this list right now is perennial post-season participant Saint Mary’s, up from Division IV this season. The Panthers have started 0-4, but a winning record in TCAL-Rock play will still get them eligible for the playoffs, and would also earn them a seed in the top 12, and likely the top eight.
Miramonte completed its non-league slate unbeaten, but has to deal with Clayton Valley, Concord, and Campolindo in league play. Lose all three, and they will likely drop to somewhere around the four seed. Win one, and they will be in the discussion for the top two seeds. Win two or more, and they will have a strong case for the top seed. The Matadors open league play with Clayton Valley this week.
Analy has the loss to Cardinal Newman, but a big win over Rancho Cotate, which will play huge if the Cougars can make a strong run in the NBL. Marin Catholic and Analy both have the easiest paths to an unbeaten record in league play, but Marin Catholic has the damaging loss to St. Ignatius. The Wildcats do, however, have a big win over Menlo-Atherton, which is better than any win currently on O’Dowd’s resume, after the Dragons fell by 30 points to Freedom two weeks ago.
Kennedy-Fremont’s spot will likely depend on its performance against Moreau Catholic, while the same can be said for Rancho Cotate and its game later against Cardinal Newman, and a deep NBL schedule. Encinal is a favorite to win the WACC-Shoreline, and its win two weeks ago over Piedmont could pay dividends if any of the teams above it stumble a bit in league play.
Acalanes finds itself in a difficult league, and could be one of those teams that eventually qualifies based on its record against Division III competition. The Dons have a big win earlier over Alhambra, to go with a win over De Anza. El Cerrito could leap Acalanes with strong play in the TCAL-Rock Division, while Alhambra will be in the mix for a DAL-Foothill title, but will struggle to move too far up with the blowout loss to Acalanes on the resume. De Anza just helped itself immensely with a win over previously unbeaten Swett.
DIVISION IV
Projected seeds:
1. Cardinal Newman
2. Moreau Catholic
3. Piedmont
4. St. Bernard’s
5. Salesian
6. Hercules
7. Del Norte
8. Kennedy-Richmond
9. San Marin
10. Swett
11. Fortuna
12. El Molino
Rationale: With its only loss to St. Mary’s-Stockton, and a win over Analy, Cardinal Newman seems destined for the top seed, unless someone in the NBL can derail those plans. Moreau Catholic has played some solid competition, and has a head-to-head win over Piedmont, so an unbeaten run through the MVAL should get the Mariners a top-two seed.
Piedmont still has the difficult WACC-Foothill Division to navigate, but we have them third right now based on the win over Salesian, even after the seven-point loss to Division III Encinal. St. Bernard’s only loss was out of state, to a state-ranked Holy Trinity-Florida team, and they have a win over Division II Casa Grande.
If the Crusaders run the table, they should get a three or four seed in their first year up from Division V, barring upsets to the top two teams listed here. Right now, we have them below Piedmont due to strength of upcoming schedule, though the Crusaders’ strength of schedule could look better if Casa Grande can win a handful of NBL games.
Salesian started its push for the top four with a thrilling win over Berean Christian, and has the TCAL-Rock schedule in front of it. A strong run in league play should guarantee no lower than the five seed.
Hercules is unbeaten and a favorite in the TCAL-Stone Division, but strength of schedule will be an issue for the Titans, especially since a one-point non-league win over Pinole Valley and a four-point win over Mt. Diablo might not look great at the end of the year.
Del Norte’s win over Fortuna last week has placed the Warriors in a favorable position for seeding, and the Huskies drop a bit more considering they are now just 2-4 overall, despite a solid schedule. Kennedy-Richmond, meanwhile, just helped its cause with a six-point loss to El Cerrito, establishing the Eagles as a team to beat in the TCAL-Stone Division. Kennedy and Hercules will get to settle their seeding on the field.
Finally, the El Molino Lions also have yet to beat anyone with a winning record, but the possibility of becoming playoff-eligible with two wins in the Sonoma County League is certainly realistic. They are also 1-0 against Division IV competition.
DIVISION V
Projected seeds:
1. Berean Christian
2. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
3. Fort Bragg
4. Middletown
5. Stellar Prep
6. Ferndale
7. Kelseyville
8. St. Helena
9. Arcata
10. Clear Lake
11. St. Francis-Watsonville
12. California School for the Deaf
Rationale: Berean Christian may have two losses, but it’s hard to fault the Eagles for playing up in divisions, with the losses coming by 10 to unbeaten Kennedy-Fremont, and on a late score to Salesian, after leading for most of the game. Both Berean Christian and SPSV will see an increase in their strength of schedule as they start league play, and for Berean. If the Bruins can post strong numbers in the TCAL-Rock Division, they could overtake the Eagles for the top seed.
Fort Bragg, meanwhile, is favored in the North Central League, but does not play the level of competition as the two teams above them. That being said, dropping down from Division IV could result in a top two seed for the Timberwolves as the season shakes out. Middletown will get a shot, however, as the Mustangs and Fort Bragg will get to settle the NCL on the field.
The only Division V team on Stellar Prep’s schedule is St. Francis-Watsonville, but the Thunder’s non-league win over Castro Valley certainly boosts their resume. Ferndale’s two losses are to higher division opponents, El Dorado-Placerville and Fortuna. If the Wildcats can be competitive in games against St. Bernard’s, that would certainly help their cause.
Kelseyville has a head-to-head win over St. Helena, but was routed by Middletown. Arcata rebounded well from a loss to St. Bernard’s, racing past McKinleyville. Clear Lake and St. Francis each have two losses, but Clear Lake’s two losses are to Fort Bragg and Berean Christian.
CSD is a one-loss team, but without much on its resume.
