Our fourth installment of the weekly playoff projections can no longer be considered too early, as every league is now in the heart of its schedule. This week, we continue the weekly process of identifying our projected seeds for the North Coast Section playoffs. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we will rank teams accordingly each week, and discuss the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
We started the process three weeks ago by seeding the top eight teams in each division, and have now expanded where it becomes evident there will be more teams qualified, up to 12 teams at this stage, rather than the full 16. We will expand this list to a full 16 by the end of the season as more results make it more logical to sort out all schools. We may include teams on the bubble in the rationale section for each division.
OPEN
Projected four teams:
1. De La Salle
2. Pittsburg
3. Clayton Valley Charter
4. Monte Vista
Rationale: Despite some uncertainty starting to creep in, we have kept these four teams in the same order as our current choices for the Open Division bracket. De La Salle’s one-point win over San Ramon Valley last week means upcoming games with teams such as Foothill, California, and Monte Vista are not gimmes for the Spartans, and a loss for any of these teams over the remainder of the season will cost them the top seed.
Pittsburg opened BVAL play with a 34-point win over Deer Valley, and finishes the season with games against Freedom and Antioch. The Pirates face unbeaten Heritage this week. They also have big wins over Serra, Mitty, and Vacaville. Clayton Valley, meanwhile, dominated Miramonte last Friday to make an early statement in the strong DAL-Valley Conference. Monte Vista remains unbeaten, and appears to be on a collision course for the season finale with De La Salle.
DIVISION I
Projected seeds:
1. Freedom
2. California
3. Antioch
4. Heritage
5. San Leandro
6. Foothill
7. San Ramon Valley
8. American
Rationale: With Freedom’s big win over Antioch, the Falcons now assume the top spot. That is, unless they knock off Pittsburg to earn a berth in the Open Division. California continues to look strong in its quest for a top-two seed, and maybe even a top seed or Open Division berth depending on how the Grizzlies do against De La Salle in a couple weeks.
Antioch and Heritage will see each other in another week, and will get to decide the third seed on the field. San Leandro won its WACC-Foothill opener on Friday, and the Pirates have an earlier win over Foothill. Foothill, meanwhile, has an overtime win against San Ramon Valley and has won three straight games.
American looks likely to be able to be .500 or better in the Mission Valley, which would make the Eagles post-season eligible. Three other teams trying to get eligible include Berkeley, Liberty, and Amador Valley. Each of them will need upset victories in the final four weeks.
DIVISION II
Projected seeds:
1. Campolindo
2. Concord
3. Redwood
4. Ukiah
5. Santa Rosa
6. Livermore
7. Granada
8. Windsor
9. Mt. Eden
10. College Park
11. Northgate
12. Washington
Rationale: As of now, we don’t see any teams in this bracket who are making a case to get selected for the open division. Concord and Campolindo can each stake a claim to the top spot right now, and each have difficult roads ahead, leaving the door open to another team that could make a strong run in league play.
A loss to Clayton Valley in league play will not be enough to knock anyone out of the top spot, so Concord and Campolindo will likely get to settle the argument for the top seed head-to-head, though both will also have to deal with Miramonte.
Redwood continues to roll in MCAL action, with a lone loss this season to Marin Catholic, and Ukiah’s win over Santa Rosa looks like it will loom large in the seedings, especially after Santa Rosa’s win over Montgomery last week. Livermore picked up a huge win over Amador Valley for its fourth win, and the Cowboys and Granada will get to settle who gets the higher seed in the regular-season finale.
Windsor holds in the top eight despite a loss to Rancho Cotate last week, and the Jaguars have wins over Northgate and Hayward. Mt. Eden dropped its league opener to Encinal, but played well, and the Monarchs eventual seed will likely be decided by its game with Hayward.
College Park moves into out top 10 after a big win over Northgate on Friday, while Washington’s strong overall record moves the Huskies into the 12 spot despite a weak overall strength of schedule. The schedule gets tougher, though, so they will have to earn this spot.
Maria Carrillo and Montgomery will both be in line for higher seeds if they get eligible, but neither is guaranteed of that at this point. Hayward routed San Lorenzo in its league opener on Friday, and faces Encinal this week. The Farmers are also on the bubble of this list, and will have a big game later with Mt. Eden.
DIVISION III
Projected seeds:
1. Analy
2. Bishop O’Dowd
3. Marin Catholic
4. Miramonte
5. Rancho Cotate
6. Kennedy-Fremont
7. Encinal
8. Acalanes
9. De Anza
10. Saint Mary’s
11. El Cerrito
12. Alhambra
Rationale: We see some shake-up in the top four after Miramonte’s one-sided loss to Clayton Valley. Everyone at the top of this list has at least one loss, but Analy’s win over Rancho Cotate and competitive game with Cardinal Newman moves the Tigers to the top.
O’Dowd recovered nicely from its only loss so far – to Freedom – and rebounded with an 18-point victory over Piedmont. With Freedom’s big win over Antioch, the Dragons’ strength of schedule got another boost, so we have moved them into the two slot. Marin Catholic is well on its way to an undefeated run through the MCAL, while Miramonte still has big games remaining with Concord and Campolindo.
Rancho Cotate posted an impressive 28-point win over Windsor, and the two losses are to Analy and Antioch, so it’s hard to imagine the Cougars being seeded any lower than five, and even higher if they can beat Cardinal Newman. Kennedy is still eyeing its big test, a date with Moreau Catholic later in league play.
Encinal posted a big win over Mt. Eden to open Shoreline Division play, and faces its other top challenger this week, Hayward. Acalanes has a difficult road ahead in league play, especially after getting shut out by Concord, but will be above .500 against Division III competition, and has one-sided wins over De Anza and Alhambra.
De Anza has a huge win over Swett, which just beat El Cerrito. Saint Mary’s looks like it might have just started its climb up these projections, after opening league play with a win over Salesian. The Panthers are still just 2-4 overall, but with upcoming games against El Cerrito, Swett, and St. Patrick’s, there is plenty of room to move upwards.
Alhambra is one of the top contenders in the DAL-Foothill, along with Berean Christian, but the big loss to Acalanes will hurt the Bulldogs.
DIVISION IV
Projected seeds:
1. Cardinal Newman
2. Moreau Catholic
3. St. Bernard’s
4. Piedmont
5. Swett
6. Salesian
7. Hercules
8. Kennedy-Richmond
9. San Marin
10. Del Norte
11. Fortuna
12. El Molino
Rationale: Unless someone in the North Bay League can shock Caridnal Newman, the Cardinals are a virtual lock for the top seed, and the same goes for Moreau Catholic and its Mission Valley opponents for the second seed.
Losses to Encinal and Bishop O’Dowd aren’t going to totally damage Piedmont’s resume, but we are dropping the Highlanders behind a St. Bernard’s team which has been playing very well since a season-opening three-point loss to Holy Trinity Episcopal-Melbourne (FL). Swett is a big climber this week after its win over El Cerrito.
Salesian has a big win over Berean Christian, but the earlier loss to Piedmont has now been compounded with a league-opening loss to Saint Mary’s. The Pride still have big league games remaining with Swett, El Cerrito, and SPSV.
Hercules is unbeaten and a favorite in the TCAL-Stone Division, but strength of schedule will be an issue for the Titans, especially since a one-point non-league win over Pinole Valley and a four-point win over Mt. Diablo might not look great at the end of the year.
Kennedy and Hercules will get to settle their debate on the field, as new rivals in the TCAL-Stone Division, as both opened league play with wins. San Marin has been improving since some early struggles, and is playing well in the MCAL. Del Norte has a big win over Fortuna.
Finally, the El Molino Lions also have yet to beat anyone with a winning record, but the possibility of becoming playoff-eligible with two wins in the Sonoma County League is certainly realistic. They are also 1-0 against Division IV competition.
Justin-Siena is on the bubble here, if the Braves can get eligible through Marin County play.
DIVISION V
Projected seeds:
1. Berean Christian
2. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
3. Fort Bragg
4. Middletown
5. Kelseyville
6. Stellar Prep
7. St. Helena
8. Ferndale
9. California School for the Deaf
10. Arcata
11. St. Francis-Watsonville
12. Clear Lake
Rationale: Berean Christian may have two losses, but it’s hard to fault the Eagles for playing up in divisions, with the losses coming by 10 to unbeaten Kennedy-Fremont, and on a late score to Salesian, after leading for most of the game. Both Berean Christian and SPSV will see an increase in their strength of schedule as they start league play. Berean opened league play with a rout over Mt. Diablo, despite missing standout Isaiah Hodgins. If SPSV can post strong numbers in the TCAL-Rock Division, they could overtake the Eagles for the top seed. The Bruins opened league play with a big win over Pinole Valley.
Fort Bragg, meanwhile, is favored in the North Central League, but does not play the level of competition as the two teams above them. That being said, dropping down from Division IV could result in a top two seed for the Timberwolves as the season shakes out. Middletown will get a shot, however, as the Mustangs and Fort Bragg will get to settle the NCL on the field.
Kelseyville has a head-to-head win over St. Helena, and its lone loss is to Middletown. Stellar Prep has played up in divisions for most of the season, and strength of schedule should benefit the Thunder despite the overall record.
St. Helena should do well over the rest of the NCL season, though losses to Fort Bragg and Kelseyville have knocked the Saints out of the running there. Likewise, Ferndale’s one-sided loss to St. Bernard’s last week established the Little 4 pecking order. CSD, meanwhile, is a one-loss team.
