Below is the third edition of the state playoff matchups as of Oct. 11 for Divisions 6A through 4A.
6A DIVISION
Let’s avoid critiquing Brophy Prep staying at No. 2 despite losing to Basha (a non-playoff team at this point), while Perry’s loss to Chandler sent them back to No. 7. The first round may have one or two tight matchups, the No. 8-9 game and the No. 6-11 game, but when you get to the quarterfinals things start to heat up. Brophy and Perry could face off as well as Desert Ridge and Chandler, and just imagine if Hamilton falls below Desert Ridge (another team that has a grievance for being behind a two-loss squad they beat). If the Jaguars wind up at No. 5 and Hamilton slips to No. 6, it would be a quarterfinals grudge match for the ages between Chandler and Hamilton.
No. 1 Mountain Pointe (7-0) vs. No. 16 Dobson (5-2)
No. 2 Brophy Prep (7-1) vs. No. 15 Pinnacle (3-5)
No. 3 Chandler (6-2) vs. No. 14 Desert Vista (3-4)
No. 4 Skyline (7-1) vs. No. 13 Tucson (5-2)
No. 5 Hamilton (5-2) vs. No. 12 Valley Vista (5-2)
No. 6 Desert Ridge (6-1) vs. No. 11 Red Mountain (4-3)
No. 7 Perry (6-1) vs. No. 10 Horizon (6-1)
No. 8 Mesa Mountain View (4-3) vs. No. 9 Westview (5-2)
5A DIVISION
The most interesting thing about the way the bracket would break down this week is that Desert Edge, the season’s No. 1 team in 5A since week zero, may have to go through a really good Mesquite team in the quarterfinals, an undefeated Williams Field in the semis and an undefeated Cienega in the finals. Less than a month ago, the Scorpions defeated the Wildcats, 24-13, a rematch in round two would be a standout game, and somewhat unfair to a team that has been the head of the class since it knocked off Centennial, the defending Division I champion, Aug. 20.
No. 1 Desert Edge (7-0) vs. No. 16 Fairfax (6-2)
No. 2 Cienega (7-0) vs. No. 15 Liberty (5-2)
No. 3 Queen Creek (7-1) vs. No. 14 Flowing Wells (4-3)
No. 4 Williams Field (8-0) vs. No. 13 Campo Verde (6-2)
No. 5 Ironwood Ridge (6-1) vs. No. 12 Notre Dame Prep (5-2)
No. 6 Centennial (6-1) vs. No. 11 Kellis (6-1)
No. 7 Marana (5-2) vs. No. 10 Desert View (6-1)
No. 8 Mesquite (5-2) vs. No. 9 Marana Mountain View (5-2)
4A DIVISION
The only real changes in the rankings from top to bottom came in the 4-8 range. Marcos de Niza’s recent stretch of two losses in three games has sent them down to No. 5 and Higley’s high-scoring offense has vaulted them to No. 4. That Higley matchup with Casa Grande could be a good one, and might produce the most combined points of any round one game. The most competitive game might be No. 7 Salpointe Catholic of Tucson and No. 10 Dysart. They both have put together excellent defensive seasons, and have an overall record of 11-3 to this point.
No. 1 Saguaro (8-0) vs. No. 16 Buckeye Union (5-2)
No. 2 Sunrise Mountain (6-1) vs. No. 15 Mingus Union (4-3)
No. 3 Catalina Foothills (6-1) vs. No. 14 Canyon del Oro (4-3)
No. 4 Higley (6-1) vs. No. 13 Casa Grande (4-3)
No. 5 Marcos de Niza (5-2) vs. No. 12 Bradshaw Mountain (5-2)
No. 6 Cactus (4-3) vs. No. 11 Thunderbird (5-2)
No. 7 Salpointe Catholic (5-2) vs. No. 10 Dysart (6-1)
No. 8 Peoria (5-2) vs. No. 9 Cactus Shadows (5-2)
PLAYOFF QUALIFICATIONS
With regional play set to begin this week across the state of Arizona, the AIA released its first round of weekly divisional seeding.
The seeds, ranking each school in each division, are based on an algorithm utilizing statistical mathematics found in the 2005 research paper by Roy Bethel entitled: “A Solution to the Unequal Strength of Schedule Problem.” MaxPreps developed the algorithm for high school sports nationwide and the state tweaked it to be “retrodictive,” meaning it focuses solely on games in the past and does not attempt to predict the results for games remaining on the schedule. Each team is assigned a rating value, which then translates to the playoff seed.
Football playoffs begin Friday, Nov. 4 and are played within four rounds of a single elimination, 16-team bracket in Divisions 6A to 2A. In order to qualify, teams must have scheduled a minimum of eight games and the top team in each region is given an automatic bid. Note: The automatic bid in the 6A Southern will be the winner of the No. 1 Tucson division team vs. the No. 1 Yuma division team. The state tournament bracket will be seeded according to overall ranking of the 16 teams.
