Our sixth installment of the weekly playoff projections starts to break down exactly what teams have remaining, and what they need to do in order to become eligible or gain a higher seed. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we will rank teams accordingly each week, and discuss the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
We started the process five weeks ago by seeding the top eight teams in each division, and now include every likely playoff team and projected seeds, as well as identifying those teams which can still become eligible, and what they need to do. Time is running short . . .
OPEN
Projected four teams:
1. De La Salle
2. Pittsburg
3. Clayton Valley Charter
4. Monte Vista
Rationale: Nothing has changed here in our projections. If De La Salle wins out, the Spartans should have done enough for the top seed, as a last-second loss to East-Salt Lake City is an indicator of strength of schedule, much like last year’s loss to Trinity-Euless. They also have the wins over Servite, Serra, and California, with Monte Vista still remaining on the schedule.
Pittsburg is unbeaten and tied for the lead in the BVAL, with a big showdown coming this week against Freedom. The winner of that game should be a near-lock for the Open Division, barring any upsets. And the Pirates also have non-league wins over Serra, Mitty, and Vacaville.
The most difficult debate here right now is for the third and fourth seed. Monte Vista is unbeaten, with a three-point win over California, but has not played the same schedule as Clayton Valley. The Eagles have four wins against teams who have five or more wins, and handed Nevada powers Reed and Canyon Springs each their only loss. Reed has a 21-point win over Sac-Joaquin power Oak Ridge. The biggest remaining test for Clayton Valley is a regular season finale against Campolindo.
The regular season finale between Monte Vista and De La Salle, of course, has the potential to change things, provided Monte Vista first defeats San Ramon Valley this week. A win by the Mustangs would elevate them to a top-two seed for sure, and possibly the top overall spot.
DIVISION I
Projected seeds:
1. Freedom
2. California
3. Antioch
4. Heritage
5. San Leandro
6. Foothill
7. San Ramon Valley
8. American
Rationale: With the Open Division likely to take the top four teams from Division I, the likelihood remains that this playoff bracket will have eight teams, meaning that the entire division will have a week off to start the playoffs.
Freedom’s hot start, and big win over Antioch, has the Falcons in line for the top seed here, unless they beat Pittsburg and move up to the Open Division. Cal’s loss to De La Salle last week should have no negative impact, and it is hard to imagine the EBAL runner-up falling lower than the two seed. A season finale between Cal and San Ramon Valley could have a big impact here, though, if the Wolves can pull off a victory.
Antioch appears still in line for the third seed, despite three losses so far. Heritage’s win over Liberty gives it the common opponent edge over San Leandro, who lost to the Lions. The Pirates are unbeaten in the WACC-Foothill, and have a win over Foothill, so they have to go ahead of the Foothill and San Ramon Valley tandem. Foothill, of course, beat San Ramon Valley head-to-head, and finishes with Livermore and Amador Valley, both games in which the Falcons will be favored.
San Ramon Valley’s resume is strong at the moment, with a 6-2 overall record, and 5-1 in league play, so it is tempting to move them ahead of the three teams listed directly above. We did that in our rankings, but these are projections, so future games have to be taken into account. SRV finishes with Monte Vista and California. If they beat either of those teams, they will be no lower than the four seed. Lose both, however, and that loss to Foothill will be the difference maker.
American just beat Washington in a key victory for the Eagles’ playoff eligibility. Now, they just need to beat Irvington in their final regular season game this week, and they will be eligible for the post-season.
Other teams who still remain in the running include Amador Valley, Berkeley, Castro Valley, Liberty, Dublin, and Irvington. Amador Valley needs one win, and finishes the season against Foothill, after having this week off. Berkeley needs two wins, and has games remaining against Bishop O’Dowd and Castro Valley.
Castro Valley simply needs to beat Berkeley in its season finale to finish 1-1 against Division I competition, and meet the criteria that way. Liberty needs two wins, and finishes the season against Deer Valley and Freedom. Dublin needs two wins, and finishes with California and Dougherty Valley. Irvington just needs to beat American, which would give the Vikings a 1-0 record against Division I competition.
DIVISION II
Projected seeds:
1. Campolindo
2. Concord
3. Redwood
4. Ukiah
5. Windsor
6. Granada
7. Santa Rosa
8. Livermore
9. College Park
10. Northgate
11. Washington
12. Mt. Eden
13. Hayward
Rationale: Campolindo has a near-lock on the top seed at this moment, especially after blowing out Concord last Friday night. We are leaving Concord in the two spot for now, since the Minutemen will likely beat Las Lomas next week. That means this week’s game with Miramonte is huge.
Redwood has games remaining with San Marin and San Rafael, and if the Giants win both, should be a likely three seed since their only loss this season is to Marin Catholic, and they have wins over Maria Carrillo and Mt. Eden. This week’s game with San Marin is for sole possession of second place in the MCAL.
It seems likely that a North Bay League team will grab the fourth seed, especially after Livermore’s loss to Dublin, but the door is still open for Livermore or Granada as well, especially with the way the NBL teams keep knocking each other off. Right now, we are leaving Ukiah there, since its only two losses are against Cardinal Newman and Rancho Cotate, and the Wildcats have wins over both Santa Rosa and Casa Grande. Wins over Montgomery and Windsor should lock up a top-four seed for the Wildcats.
Windsor is now in our top five, despite a one-sided loss to Cardinal Newman, and can climb higher with games remaining against Casa Grande and Ukiah. If the Jaguars beat Casa Grande this week, the regular season finale against Ukiah should be for a top-four seed.
Livermore falls a few spots this week after a real damaging loss to Dublin, but has big opportunities to move back up with games remaining against Foothill and Granada. Speaking of Granada, the one-point loss to Foothill is certainly a quality loss on the resume, although missing a late field goal to win the game hurts. A win in that game would have all but cemented a top-four seed for the Matadors. They finish, however, with Dougherty Valley and Livermore, so a 5-5 overall record is plausible, which should get a good seed considering strength of schedule.
Santa Rosa has big wins over Carrillo, Montgomery, and Berkeley on its resume, but the loss to Windsor hurts. Like Granada, the Panthers fell just short of notching a signature victory last week, falling by two points to Rancho Cotate. This week will be tough, with Cardinal Newman, but Santa Rosa will have a shot at getting to six wins if it beats Casa Grande in the season finale. An upset this week, meanwhile, would send the Panthers soaring.
College Park has a big head-to-head win over Northgate, but does not have as big a win as Livermore’s win over Amador Valley. However, if the Falcons finish strong with wins over Berean Christian and Alhambra, they would be league champions and virtually guaranteed of a top-eight seed at that point.
Northgate just picked up a huge win over Berean Christian, but remains behind College Park due to the head-to-head loss. Mt. Eden also climbs in this week’s projections, after beating Hayward by 23 points. They stay behind Northgate, though, due to Alameda as a common opponent. Northgate beat the Hornets, while Mt. Eden suffered a loss.
Hayward’s loss to the Monarchs is certainly going to hurt the Farmers’ seeding, and right now it drops the Farmers all the way to 13, despite the win over Encinal. But if Hayward can win out and be a league champion, it can still get a home game in the first round regardless of seeding.
Washington is already playoff eligible, and has a win over Pinole Valley, who did beat College Park. The win over Alameda is also big right now, since the Hornets beat Mt. Eden. The Huskies also have a one-point loss to Alhambra, though, so we are waiting until after College Park and Northgate play Alhambra in the next two games to use that common opponent.
A handful of teams are still able to become eligible, but with work to do. Casa Grande needs to win one of its final two, facing Windsor and Santa Rosa. Montgomery needs to win its final two games, facing Ukiah and Carrillo.
Arroyo needs to win one more game, and has games remaining against Hayward and Mt. Eden. Pinole Valley needs to win its final two games, facing Salesian and Saint Mary’s. Alameda also needs to win its final two games, facing Encinal and Hayward.
DIVISION III
Projected seeds:
1. Analy
2. Rancho Cotate
3. Bishop O’Dowd
4. Marin Catholic
5. Kennedy-Fremont
6. Miramonte
7. Encinal
8. Acalanes
9. De Anza
10. El Cerrito
11. Eureka
12. Saint Mary’s
13. Alhambra
14. Tamalpais
15. Petaluma
16. Terra Linda
Rationale: Analy continues to strengthen its grip on the top seed, especially as Rancho Cotate (big win) and Cardinal Newman (only loss) continue to look better every week. Speaking of Rancho Cotate, the Cougars right now have the second-strongest resume among the group, but have a huge regular season finale remaining with Cardinal Newman. The two competitive losses continue to strengthen the Cougars resume, but nothing is for sure here, especially if O’Dowd beats San Leandro in the regular season finale.
O’Dowd’s loss is a quality one (Freedom), and the Dragons should be a lock for a top-two seed if they can beat San Leandro in the regular season finale. If not, however, it could open the door for a Marin Catholic team which should go unbeaten in the MCAL, to slide into the third slot. The glaring deficiency on Marin Catholic’s slate is the loss to St. Ignatius, while the teams we have above the Wildcats right now do not have a bad loss.
Kennedy-Fremont just beat Logan for the first time since 1983, and it gives the Titans a win over a Division I opponent. A win over Washington this week would likely cement a top-five seed for Kennedy, which also has big wins over Moreau Catholic, San Marin, Petaluma, and Berean Christian. Miramonte, meanwhile, has a huge game this week against Concord. A win over the Minutemen would probably put the Matadors back ahead of Kennedy, especially considering the earlier win over Vanden.
Encinal bounced back from a loss to Hayward by routing Arroyo, plus the Jets are back in the hunt for a league title with Hayward’s loss to Mt. Eden. Earlier wins over Piedmont, Mt. Eden, and Terra Linda, along with a three-point loss to Paradise have them back ahead of Acalanes, unless Acalanes can pull just one upset in the final two weeks.
Acalanes has one-sided wins over both De Anza and Alhambra, and all four losses are quality ones, to Analy, Heritage, Clayton Valley, and Concord. The question mark for the Dons is whether they can put up respectable games over the next two weeks, facing Campolindo and Miramonte.
De Anza is one spot ahead of El Cerrito based on Swett as a common opponent. The Dons beat the Warriors, who beat El Cerrito by a field goal. This week provides another common opponent, however, as De Anza faces Kennedy-Richmond, who lost to El Cerrito. Beat Kennedy, and the Dons should stay ahead of the Gauchos. Lose to Kennedy, however, and the Dons will drop.
Eureka became playoff eligible with a win over McKinleyville last week. The Loggers already have quality wins over Fort Bragg and Fortuna, and a one-point loss to Ukiah. A win over Del Norte this week could move Eureka even higher.
Saint Mary’s knocked off SPSV last week, and now needs just one win in its final two games to become playoff eligible, facing Swett and Pinole Valley. The Panthers now have quality wins over both Salesian and SPSV, plus a strong schedule, which includes losses to O’Dowd, Miramonte, El Cerrito, and Moreau Catholic. Alhambra’s win over Mt. Diablo also ensured playoff eligibility for the Bulldogs, who finish the season with Northgate and College Park. They have a quality win over Washington, but a win in the final two could move them higher.
Right now, we have the trio of Tamalpais, Petaluma, and Terra Linda in the final three spots, but these places are all tenuous. Terra Linda has a good win against Justin-Siena, and needs to win one of two games to finish the season, facing Tam and Petaluma. Petaluma and Tam are both eligible now, after wins over El Molino and Justin-Siena, respectively. Tam’s common opponent score over Justin-Siena has them ahead of Terra Linda, but with these three teams all facing each other in some manner to finish the season, a lot can still change.
There are a few other teams looking for eligibility, though getting a berth would not be guaranteed. Richmond needs one win, playing against Albany and Kennedy-Richmond, but the Oilers would still be relegated to a bottom seed if they got in. The same applies to Sonoma Valley, which can become eligible with one win, facing Healdsburg and El Molino.
DIVISION IV
Projected seeds:
1. Cardinal Newman
2. St. Bernard’s
3. Moreau Catholic
4. Piedmont
5. Salesian
6. Del Norte
7. Kennedy-Richmond
8. San Marin
9. Hercules
10. Swett
11. Fortuna
12. Lower Lake
13. Harker
14. El Molino
15. Healdsburg
Rationale: The Cardinals might have the biggest stranglehold on a top seed, even with a season ending showdown looming against Rancho Cotate. Cardinal Newman has an excellent win over Analy, and only a quality loss to St. Mary’s-Stockton on the wrong side of the ledger.
St. Bernard’s and Moreau Catholic are battling for the second seed right now, with the edge possibly to the Crusaders after Moreau’s loss to Kennedy. Moreau has a huge game with Inderkum this week, however, and a win there would virtually guarantee the second seed for the Mariners. St. Bernard’s only loss is to a 5-2 Holy Trinity Episcopal-Florida team, which is ranked in the top 20 among all Florida Class 3A schools, and the Crusaders knocked off Division II Casa Grande by two scores, while also beating Del Norte by the same margin.
Moreau Catholic has a win over Piedmont, who in turn has a win over Salesian, getting those seeds to fall in line. Salesian has big recent wins over SPSV and Swett, while Del Norte is looking poised to move up as well. The Warriors have a big game against Eureka this week, which could decide the HDN-Big 5 title.
Kennedy-Richmond climbs into the top seven after its big win over Hercules two weeks ago, while San Marin remains in second place in the MCAL, with a big game against Redwood coming up this week. Hercules falls to nine after the loss to Kennedy, despite bouncing back with a win over Albany.
Swett is stuck down at the 10 seed right now, despite nearly pulling off a huge win over Salesian. This week will be important for the Warriors, though, with De Anza and Kennedy facing off. Swett lost by one point to De Anza, so a Kennedy win will keep Swett down, but a larger De Anza victory could elevate Swett based on common opponent score.
Fortuna is eligible after blowing out Arcata last week, and gets a second shot at Del Norte in the Huskies’ regular season finale.
Lower Lake has built some momentum with wins over Kelseyville and Clear Lake in the last two weeks, and finishes with St. Vincent and Cloverdale. Harker, El Molino and Healdsburg have all clinched eligibility, though none have a real quality win yet. Harker did beat St Francis last week, and has a win over Santa Cruz. El Molino beat the Greyhounds head-to-head.
DIVISION V
Projected seeds:
1. Fort Bragg
2. Berean Christian
3. Middletown
4. Stellar Prep
5. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
6. Kelseyville
7. St. Helena
8. Ferndale
9. California School for the Deaf
10. Arcata
11. St. Francis-Watsonville
Rationale: It’s hard to find anyone who thinks Berean Christian does not have the most talent in this field, but the strong season by Fort Bragg could elevate the Timberwolves to the top seed, with a lone loss to Eureka. Berean Christian’s losses, meanwhile, are all to higher division opponents as well, so this will be an interesting debate. A win over College Park this week, however, would get Berean back into a tie for the DAL-Foothill lead, and even a co-championship in that league could get them back into the number one spot.
Fort Bragg is now 8-1, with wins over St. Helena, Middletown, and Lower Lake, and the Timberwolves face Kelseyville in their final regular season game. Middletown’s only losses are to Salesian, Berean Christian, and Fort Bragg, plus the Mustangs also have a 32-point win over Kelseyville. The margin of victory for Berean Christian and Fort Bragg against Middletown is nearly identical.
SPSV just suffered its second loss of the season, but the Bruins also have a tough slate to finish, seeing El Cerrito and Swett. If the Bruins win just one of those games, it will give them a strong resume, maybe enough to move back ahead of Stellar Prep. Stellar Prep has a big 44-8 win over Washington-Fremont, and is heavily favored to beat St. Francis-Watsonville and Harker to close out the regular season. The Thunder also have a win over Division I Castro Valley.
Kelseyville has a head-to-head win over St. Helena, and faces Willits and Fort Bragg to finish the season. The Saints, meanwhile, finish with Middletown and Clear Lake.
Ferndale is 5-3 right now, and likely to finish 6-4, with games left against St. Bernard’s and Hoopa Valley. CSD’s only loss right came out of state to Indiana School for the Deaf, but does not have a strong win, and could get passed up in the seedings by Arcata.
Arcata is playoff eligible, but a win over Eureka would really boost the Tigers in the seedings. St. Francis is also eligible, but coming off a loss to Harker, and faces Stellar Prep and CSD to finish the regular season. Clear Lake is still alive as well, but needs two wins, facing Cloverdale and St. Helena.
