We are now under four weeks left until the committee decides the playoff fate for all eligible teams. Here is how it is shaping up.
Division I
Locks: Amador Valley, Berkeley, Clayton Valley, College Park, De La Salle, Foothill, Freedom, San Ramon Valley
Likely In: Dublin, Granada, Irvington, Pitt, Santa Rosa
On the Bubble: American, Arroyo, Castro Valley, Dougherty Valley, Liberty, MSJ, Monte Vista, Mt. Eden, San Leandro
At this point, CP looks like a lock. Five games over .500, unbeaten in league and a strong schedule. It is almost time to consider Santa Rosa a lock, probably by next week. Granada is close as well and just needs a couple of more positive results. Irvington, with wins over San Leandro and Arroyo, is in great shape and is almost a lock even if they don't win the MVAL.
I think there are 13 teams in great shape right now, with the rest on the bubble. If Monte Vista gets eligible, they'll get in. After that, I think a win over Pittsburg will bode well for Arroyo, and I think San Leandro would be next in line with a good overall record and a strong start in league. Arroyo and SL play twice still, which could go a long way in determining a playoff spot.
Division II
Locks: Acalanes, Concord, De Anza, Montgomery, Northgate, Richmond, Ygnacio Valley
Likely In: Las Lomas, Rancho Cotate, Redwood Tamalpais, Tennyson, Windsor
On the Bubble: Campolindo, Casa Grande, El Cerrito, Kennedy-Fremont, Livermore, Newark Memorial, Novato, Petaluma, San Lorenzo, Washington
I still think YV is a lock, despite recent transgressions. The record is still in good shape and they are a very good team.
Redwood, Tamalpais and Tennyson move into the likely in category, shrinking the amount of bubble spots remaining. This would leave three bubble spots.
Kennedy-Fremont joins the bubble fray, and I've moved Petaluma down from likely in to on the bubble due to the lack of results available to me from the SCL.
Livermore, with its schedule, is likely in if they get eligible, and they just need one Division II win. Campo and Newark, if both end up eligible, are probably in. Newark looks to moving towards eligibility while Campo is going to need to string together some results.
Outside of that, I think EC and SLZ also have good arguments.
Division III
Locks: Bishop O'Dowd, Drake, Kennedy-Richmond, Marin Academy, Miramonte, Piedmont, Pinole Valley, University
Likely In: Albany, Berean Christian, San Rafael, St. Mary's
On the Bubble: Alhambra, Analy, Branson, Cardinal Newman, El Molino, Elsie Allen, Healdsburg, Marin Catholic, Piner, San Marin, Terra Linda
Miramonte is now a lock, being two games over .500 in DIII matches, with only one such match remaining. Their schedule and results make them a lock. Piedmont and Pinole now mathematically will finish at least .500 in DIII matches, which is good enough to be a lock.
Albany and Berean are very close to being locks, and can still technically fall under .500 in DIII matches, but my hunch is next week will be calling them locks. St. Mary's just needs one win or draw in one of their final two DIII matches and they are a lock. I feel confident about those 12 teams getting in.
I think Branson and Marin Catholic are in pretty good shape, with their DIII records being at .500, but matches remaining with San Marin and Terra Linda will help settle the fate of all four of those teams.
A lack of results from the SCL leaves me unable to give Analy, Elsie Allen, El Molino, Healdsburg and Piner a fair assessment, though I do think they are bubble teams at this point.
League Races
BVAL
It’s early days in the BVAL, but right now it looks like it’s Tuesday’s game between Freedom and Pittsburg will go a long way into giving someone a leg up. Antioch may be looking to play spoiler after picking up a big three points against Deer Valley, so don’t crown Freedom or Pitt the champ just yet.
DAL
The Foothill Division shows Acalanes up top with Concord in two, which should come as no surprise. However, Miramonte being just two points off the lead may have been unexpected. It’s truly a three-team race right now, but with the way the Dons have been playing, they should be considered the favorite.
In the Valley Division, College Park has raced out to a perfect start and are two points ahead of a Clayton Valley team coming off a big win over YV. However, I wouldn’t count YV out yet, and Las Lomas and Northgate are also incredibly talented. It may look like a two-horse race right now, but 3-4 teams are going to be in the mix at the end.
EBAL
It seems like it will be a two-team race in the EBAL Mountain, with SRV and DLS battling it out. Is MV too far back? Can Dougherty come up with a few more big wins? Those are questions that will be answered, but right now it seems like it’s the two aforementioned teams with SRV having a leg up and controlling its destiny for now.
In the Valley, it’s a crowded house and nobody is out of it. AV and FH have the edge now, not just in the standings, but they are tied for first and both have a game in hand. That game is against each other, so if there is a winner of that one, they would have a chance to be five points clear. A draw and we have a logjam from top to bottom.
MCAL
There are so many league games in this league, and there are four legitimate contenders at this point with a long way to go. Drake and Tam seem to be the class of the league right now, but a surprising San Rafael team and a surging Redwood team don’t seem to be going away.
MVAL
Nearly at the halfway pole, and Irvington have blazed out to a perfect start and sit five points clear. They are definitely one of the bigger storylines of the year. However, injuries may cause them problems, losing two key players recently, and Newark is slowly starting to round into form and sits just five points back. It does appear to be a two-team race and it should be a doozy.
NBL
Montgomery has turned it on, winning five league matches in a row and six overall, and is in firm command. It's not over by any means, with Windsor, Rancho Cotate and Santa Rosa all within at least six points.
SCL
This league has not submitted scores, and I can't really say anything if they don't participate because I don't want to just BS.
TCAL
In the Rock Division, it was just about 11 days ago that Richmond and De Anza were level and playing a huge league game. Richmond was able to squeeze that one out and has since opened up a six-point lead. It’s not over by any means, but their league season ends very soon and Richmond needs seven points from its last three league matches to wrap it up.
In the Stone, Kennedy and Pinole are going to be battling it out. Pinole beat Kennedy recently and now sits in prime position. A win or draw in their next matchup and Pinole wins the league.
WACC
Berkeley has played one less match than BOD and SL, and has a four-point lead over those teams. The Yellowjackets are in control of the Foothill Division currently, and don’t look to be slowing down. The Dragons and Pirates will continue to provide pressure.
In the Shoreline, Tennyson has established itself as the favorite recently. A 5-1 win over Piedmont and a 3-0 win over SLZ, the two teams running most closely to them, appears to make the Lancers a clear-cut favorite, but they are just up by two points over those two teams. The race is far from over.
