The North Coast Section seeding committee meets on Sunday and it will be interesting to see how the P2P NCS rankings and projections match up with what the committee decides on where who goes where in the pecking order of the six divisions.
Division I appears to have a clear cut favorite but after that it’s a little less predictable. Even so, there are no real total locks, but there are some close ones.
DIVISION I
This is a division where it would seem P2P NCS No. 2 ranked Carondelet, barring something unforeseen like an injury, would appear to be hands down favorite. The Cougars have handled all the EBAL teams that will have four of the first six seeds with only San Ramon Valley coming even close in a 58-47 home loss two weeks ago.
Most of the Cougars competition has been against top teams from other divisions and schools from out of state in tournaments. Of the large schools they’ve played outside going 7-0 against EBAL teams, Coach Elgin Leslie and his girls have a loss to Folsom, wins over Sacramento and McClatchy, and a win over a Chaminade-West Hills team just missed the eight-team CIF Southern Section Open Division but is the No. 1 seed in the Division 1 32-team field.
Can P2P NCS No. 7 Heritage come up with an effort like they did in coming from way down against NCS No. 3 Miramonte to only take a 55-47 loss? Even so, Carondelet handled Miramonte 67-56 because no one could handle Cougars 6-3 junior post Ali Bamberger. Whether anyone in this D1 field can is a big question.
In a tight game on Thursday night visiting California earned the No. 5 seed with a 64-61 win on the road at Dublin and the Gaels should follow right behind with the sixth seed.
As of Friday morning 15 teams were eligible to be seeded but it’s possible two more may qualify as Clayton Valley can get eligible with a win on Friday night against College Park and Pittsburg is in the same boat needing a Friday night win against Deer Valley. If both win it will be very hard to decide since their competitive equity resumes are as close as they can be, but Clayton Valley will be favored while Pittsburg is up against our projected No. 13 seed Deer Valley and a loss eliminates them from the picture.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Carondelet
2. Heritage
3. Castro Valley
4. San Ramon Valley
5. California
6. Dublin
7. James Logan
8. Mission San Jose
9. Amador Valley
10. American
11. San Leandro
12. Mt. Eden
13. Deer Valley
14. Liberty
15. Freedom
16. Clayton Valley
DIVISION II
Miramonte by all rights should be the No. 1 seed but their competitive equity resume from a strength of schedule standpoint doesn’t get enough credit for the team’s it played at the Iolani Classic or the loss to Alaska No. 1 Dimond.
It shouldn’t really make any difference because just like in Division I where there is a clear-cut favorite, if there is anyone in the D2 title game other than the Mats and Bishop O’Dowd there will have to have been a huge upset along the way.
Looking at the rest of the field there are several teams that have a good shot of making the NorCals if they get to the semis led by a Newark Memorial team that could give O’Dowd a good game if the division is seeded as we see it.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Miramonte
2. Bishop O’Dowd
3. Newark Memorial
4. Redwood
5. Montgomery
6. Tamalpais
7. Ukiah
8. Casa Grande
9. Alameda
10. Acalanes
11. Hayward
12. Antioch
13. El Cerrito
14. Petaluma
DIVISION III
This Division also looks like it has an obvious title game with NCS No. 1 Salesian squaring off against NCS No. 4 Cardinal Newman.
With Washington-bound Haley Van Dyke always having the possibility to go for 30/20 at any time NCS No. 8 Campolindo could give Cardinal Newman a tussle in the semis if they get the No. 3 seed like they should, but anyone else would be a huge surprise.
The computer likes our NCS No. 18 Eureka as the No. 3 seed and they should get into the semis against Salesian, but even if Salesian plays like they did in a 51-38 loss to Bishop Alemany-Mission Hills, it will still be enough against anyone but Newman.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Salesian
2. Cardinal Newman
3. Campolindo
4. Eureka
5. Moreau Catholic
6. San Marin
7. Novato
8. Encinal
9. Alhambra
10. Kennedy
11. Albany
12. Analy
13. Sonoma Valley
14. Las Lomas
15. Piner
DIVISION IV
While NCS No. 6 St. Joseph Notre Dame has been conceded this division gy a lot of Bay Area analysts it’s not a slam dunk, although Coach Shawn Hipol and his young Pilots look to be the class of the division.
In this division like all the divisions we are seeding based on our NCS rankings and that doesn’t always agree with the strength of schedule the computer comes up with.
As a result, we see NCS No. 13 Piedmont as the second seed and their recent close win over Castro Valley after the first game they lost was close, only re-enforces out feeling it will be Piedmont facing St. Joseph Notre Dame in the finals after winning, and possibly on the road, at Arcata.
Fort Bragg can snag a seed if they can win on Friday at Lower Lake, and that could move things around a little bit for Sunday’s meeting. Lose and they’re out and we have a 12-team bracket.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. St. Joseph Notre Dame
2. Piedmont
3. Arcata
4. Del Norte
5. Marin Catholic
6. John Swett
7. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
8. Lick-Wilmerding
9. St. Mary’s
9. Kelseyville
10. Lower Lake
11. Justin-Siena
12. Healdsburg
DIVISION V
The San Francisco girls from Urban are the only Division V team in the rankings at No. 22, and although they only beat Lick-Wilmerding 46-43 and 54-51 in league they will be a favorite Friday night in the BCL – West title game.
Either way the Blues from the Haight Ashbury District of San Francisco will still get the top seed and will be a big favorite based on a win over a California ream that just beat Dublin, and a season-opening 10-point win over Marin Catholic.
After that, who knows? University gave Urban a game on the road but the Blues blew them out at their place. Clear Lake has a close loss and a big win against Cloverdale but also a loss to Justin-Siena. The last spot is a toss-up between Valley Christian-Dublin and the Bay School.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Urban
2. University
3. Bentley
4. Clear Lake
5. Cloverdale
6. St. Bernard’s
7. International
8. Marin Academy
9. Hoopa Valley
10. Sonoma Academy
11. San Domenico
12. Athenian
13. Holy Names
14. Fremont Christian
15. St. Vincent de Paul
16. Valley Christian
DIVISION IV
We will do a short preview on D6 but not much is known about the teams other than the Rincon Valley Christian girls and Coach Richard Higgenbottom, and California School for the Deaf, so we’ll go with the defending champion Eagles No. 1 and as No. 2 the Eagles from CSD, guaranteeing one Eagles team will be a section champion, but with both moving on to the CIF NorCals Division IV playoffs.
Other than that we went with competitive equity strength of schedule.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Rincon Valley Christian
2. California School for the Deaf
3. Emery
4. Laytonville
5. El Sobrante Christian
6. Cornerstone Christian
7. Calistoga
8. Credo
9. Rio Lindo Adventist
10. Patten Academy
11. Tomales
12. South Fork
13. Mendocino
14. Summerfield Waldorf
15. Jewish Community
16. San Francisco Waldorf
