Our first installment of the North Coast Section baseball playoff projections are out with three weeks remaining in the regular season, focusing on the highest three enrollment classifications, with other projections to be added in our next installment. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we have ranked the teams accordingly, and discussed the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future. Remember, this is us trying to see things through the eyes of the committee, and can vary widely from our rankings in some instances.
DIVISION I
Projected Seeds:
1. De La Salle
2. Foothill
3. Berkeley
4. Granada
5. Freedom
6. Heritage
7. Monte Vista
8. Dougherty Valley
9. College Park
10. Clayton Valley
11. Acalanes
12. Amador Valley
13. San Ramon Valley
14. Castro Valley
15. James Logan
16. Irvington
Criteria:
Let the second-guessing begin now. The top seed is pretty solid here, and even with its recent losses, Foothill has a compelling case for the two seed. After that, there are arguments in every direction, and the seeding might come out more accurate if all the names are thrown into a hat and simply drawn to a slot.
Berkeley just managed a respectable split with Alameda, and has a big non-league win over Heritage, but also just suffered a non-league loss to Dougherty Valley. Granada has massive wins over Saint Francis-Mountain View and Freedom, but also losses to Irvington and Clayton Valley. Freedom has a big win over Heritage, plus a win over Clayton Valley, but also a loss to College Park that could come into play if Heritage beats Freedom in the rematch.
College Park has beaten both Heritage and Freedom, but also has losses to Monte Vista, San Ramon Valley, and Amador Valley. Monte Vista just lost to Heritage. Dougherty Valley has wins over Berkeley, Foothill, and Clayton Valley, but also losses to Monte Vista, San Ramon Valley, and Deer Valley. Get the picture? Neither do we. But we have tried to sort teams into groups and used head-to-head as the primary factor within those small groupings. These spots will change, however.
This much is certain – there are going to be so-called upsets in the first two rounds that aren’t really upsets, like 15 seed Heritage’s win over Amador Valley last year, and these projections are definitely going to change in the next few weeks, especially with league tournaments on the horizon.
DIVISION II
Projected Seeds:
1. Alameda
2. Drake
3. Petaluma
4. Casa Grande
5. Northgate
6. Redwood
7. Tamalpais
8. Maria Carrillo
9. Marin Catholic
10. Rancho Cotate
11. Arroyo
12. El Cerrito
13. Washington-Fremont
14. Concord
Criteria:
First off, we only have 14 teams right now because there do not appear other sure bets to make the field outside of this group. And this is a fairly top heavy group. After the 11 seed, any victories by lower seeds will be considered true upsets.
Alameda has just one loss, in a split with Division I Berkeley. Drake leads the MCAL right now, and has a head-to-head win over Petaluma. Petaluma has a head-to-head win over Casa Grande (plus its massive win over Serra-San Mateo), while Casa has a big win over Northgate. Redwood beat Tamalpais in the first meeting between those schools, while Tam has a win over Carrillo.
DIVISION III
Projected Seeds:
1. Miramonte
2. Campolindo
3. Kennedy-Fremont
4. Cardinal Newman
5. Eureka
6. Analy
7. San Marin
8. Encinal
9. Bishop O’Dowd
10. Piner
11. St. Joseph Notre Dame
12. Albany
Criteria:
There should be more than 12 teams eligible for this division, and depending on which teams get eligible, it will change the order of seeding as well. Teams such as Alhambra, Pinole Valley, Justin-Siena, San Rafael, Sonoma Valley, Terra Linda, and Las Lomas could all dramatically effect the seeding and the impact on the first round, especially when you consider that teams such as Pinole, Siena, and San Rafael have ace pitchers who can beat any opponent.
Last year’s runner-up, Miramonte, has some quality victories, especially a recent win over Acalanes, and could be in line for the top seed. Campo has a big win over Kennedy-Fremont, and plays in an elite league, which should help the Cougars in the seeding process.
Eureka has a sparkling record, but low strength of schedule. That being said, the Loggers have beaten Analy, who has a recent blowout win over san Marin. Encinal has a big win over O’Dowd, and Piner could move up higher having split games with Analy and Petaluma.
DIVISION IV
With non-league wins over St. Patrick-St. Vincent and Redwood Christian, Piedmont could have the inside track to the top seed, especially playing in a division against higher enrollment teams. SPSV, Redwood Christian, Middletown, Fort Bragg, Kelseyville, and McKinleyville will all be in the mix to host first-round games.
DIVISION V
St. Vincent de Paul is unbeaten, but considering quality wins and strength of schedule, Fremont Christian seems to have a pretty good shot at the top seed. Berean Christian is also in the mix for a top three seed, and could make an argument to go in the one or two spot.
DIVISION VI
South Fork’s wins over the Laytonville give the Cubs a leg up in the seeding, considering that Laytonville could wind up as a league champion. Credo could also be in the mix, along with Waldorf-SF and Point Arena.
