Six divisions that will crown champions will be contested over the next two weeks, and once the dust settles a bit, we will do a semifinal preview for all six divisions, but for now we will go with previewing the top three divisions that comprise a total of 41 teams.
DIVISION I (bracket)
TOP FOUR SEEDS: Freedom, Heritage, Foothill, Amador Valley
OVERVIEW: The only thing vaguely resembling our previous playoff projections from three weeks ago is the number of teams that are in the field, and that’s 13 qualifiers.
The North Coast Section has very strict criteria it does not waver from that can be found on the section’s web site in the Sports & General Rulings Handbook. It’s in Section 514H Criteria for At-Large Selection and identifies Record over-all and Strength of Schedule as the two main criteria. In Record over-all the sub criteria is League/Place co-champion, League Playoff and Non-league (pre-season/tournament/other. In Strength of Schedule the criteria is Record against teams in the same division, Record against teams in a higher division, Head-to-head against teams which have qualified or are being considered, Record against common opponents and Coaches Ranking.
Based on that it was pretty much a no brainer that Freedom would get the No. 1 seed since and Heritage would be right behind them. Freedom has a split with Heritage but not only do the Falcons have a head-to-head win over No. 3 seed Foothill, it was in the title game of the Livermore Stampede, and that right there more than satisfies the criteria for setting the pecking order.
While Freedom has the lone 7-0 loss to Heritage as their only blemish, Coach Brett Russo and his girls will always be tough with Southern Utah-bound Vanessa Strong in the circle, and certainly make some noise after a first round bye, but despite getting the top seed, they are not the favorites, and the Bay Valley Athletic League with them and Heritage are not really where the power seems to be.
The favorite status goes to defending champion Foothill. Yes, they lost 8-7 to Freedom at the Stampede, but that was with Oklahoma-committed sophomore fire-balling pitcher Nicole May and her 65-66-mile per hour rise ball at first base and not in the circle. Coach Matt Sweeney and his girls have three losses, but the only one with May pitching was 1-0 in early April at No. 4 seed Amador Valley where the hosts pushed across a run against May in the bottom of the sixth.
Since the loss to Freedom the Falcons have won nine straight games and in the last two meetings with Amador Valley they beat Northwestern-bound senior standout pitcher Danielle Williams 1-0 to end EBAL play and they touched her up in an 8-0 victory in the league playoff title game.
Fourth-seeded Amador Valley can’t be counted out because Williams is capable of shutting anyone down when she is on, and if the bats come alive they could be tough. An Amador Valley at Freedom semifinal could be an interesting match-up.
Seventh-seeded James Logan could emerge fired up for retiring coach Teri Johnson if senior Camille Rodriguez continues to pitch well. The veteran Johnson is the all-time winningest coach in the NCS and according to the Cal-Hi Sports Record book her current 663 victories is No. 9 on the all-time list. If they get past No. 10 seed Alhambra, they will see Heritage.
Two other teams that have had some quality wins and played everyone tough are No. 5 seed Castro Valley and No. 6 seed California. Castro Valley likely will see Amador Valley if they beat Clayton Valley and a Foothill team with a bye awaits California if they prevail against Granada.
SLEEPER: It’s a long shot, and it’s a bit sentimental, but maybe somehow the James Logan Colts will blitz the field and add a sixth NCS title to the 22 Mission Valley Athletic League titles Johnson’s teams have captured.
PREDICTED CHAMPION: Foothill
DIVISION II (bracket)
TOP FOUR SEEDS: San Marin, Concord, Antioch, Carondelet
OVERVIEW: Our projected order of the top four seeds from three weeks ago played out in the exact order but after that the water is a little muddied.
Defending Division III champion San Marin was moved up by the competitive equity formula and this year’s team looks poised to repeat, only in Division II this season. The Mustangs enter the playoffs unbeaten and won the top seed in a 4-1 victory on May 2 over second-seeded Concord.
Since then and in its final five games in Marin County Athletic League action, no one has been able to score a run against the Mustangs, and Utah-committed sophomore pitcher Madison Papenhausen has been virtually unhittable. There were a couple of 2-0 games in the five against Marin Catholic and Redwood, but those two have solid pitching of their own. In the playoffs they might need to score more runs like the four they had against Concord, but if girls don’t start hitting Papenhausen, it might not matter.
Concord is capable of turning the tables on San Marin if their sophomore pitcher Madelyn Mays and the bats are hot, and they can avoid errors. A 5-1 loss to Alhambra prevented the Minutemen girls from going 10-0 in the Diablo Valley – Foothill League and three of the five runs were unearned.
Antioch was not able to beat Freedom or Heritage, but Coach Nick Wisely and his girls had Freedom down 4-0 through five innings in their first meeting before taking a 6-4 loss. Carondelet has a win over Foothill but Nicole May was not pitching for Foothill. With May pitching they had a 2-0 lead through five innings in the EBAL playoffs before losing 4-2.
Montgomery checks in at the No. 5 seed but No. 6 seed Bishop O’Dowd could make some noise if the Hammoude sisters, Oregon State-bound senior catcher Frankie, and junior Cal-committed shortstop Nicole, get hot.
SLEEPER: We like Carondelet, O’Dowd and Redwood as potential threats to San Marin, but if somehow O’Dowd were to get through the first two rounds and beat Concord in the semis, the bats of the Hammoude sisters could become a factor if they face San Marin in the title game.
PROJECTED CHAMPION: San Marin
DIVISION III (bracket)
TOP FOUR SEEDS: Marin Catholic, Moreau Catholic, Eureka, Sonoma Valley
OVERVIEW: In this division we only had the first two seeds correct in our projections three weeks ago, but after that it might not make a lot of difference in a division where at projection time only 10 teams were eligible in a field that now has 12 teams.
With defending champion San Marin being moved up to DII after a 15-0 shellacking of Sonoma Valley in last year’s title game, the door was opened up for a new champion and the front-runner is a top-seeded Marin Catholic team that lost 4-2 to San Marin in last year’s semifinals.
But that was then and this is now. Marin Catholic coach Dave Albini has a fresh new face in the circle and freshman Annabel Teperson has had a pretty good season both in the circle and at the plate for the young Wildcats team that only has three seniors on its 18-girl roster. Teperson has two perfect games against Casa Grande and Palo Alto and if she is on and junior slugger Julia Scardina and the rest of the Wildcats are hitting, Albini and his girls will be hard to beat.
As was stated in the projections three weeks ago if Moreau Catholic didn’t have so many losses they could have laid claim to the top seed since they have a win over James Logan on their resume and have played a large school non-league schedule and they in the large school Mission Valley Athletic League where they were a more than respectable 9-5.
The seeding committee liked Eureka and Sonoma Valley more than we did in the preview but both could make some noise along with fifth-seeded Analy.
After that it is a pretty big drop-off in a division that has a hard time filling the bracket and that means all four top seeds won’t be in action until Friday or Saturday since they have byes.
SLEEPER: Analy was third in the Sonoma County League which won’t exist any longer, but they have a split with Petaluma to hand that team its only league loss, and Petaluma has a win over Marin Catholic. Veteran coach Nick Houtz and his girls also have a split with Sonoma Valley so for those two reasons they are the sleeper.
PROJECTED CHAMPION: Marin Catholic
