There are only a few weeks remaining in the regular season, and that means our projections should be starting to gain some clarity as teams jockey for position in their league standings. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we rank teams accordingly each week, and discuss the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
We started the process three weeks ago by seeding the top eight teams in each division, rather than the full 16. These are the teams that would be in line for a home game in the first round, and we have now expanded this list to a full 16, or fewer in those divisions where there do not appear to be 16 teams in line to meet qualification criteria.
OPEN
Projected four teams:
1. De La Salle
2. Clayton Valley
3. Pittsburg
4. Liberty
Rationale: Why do we have an unbeaten Liberty team currently below Clayton Valley and Pitt in our projections? The answer is simple – until someone in the BVAL beats Pittsburg, we are listing the defending league champions as the top team from the BVAL, and that means . . .
If the Pirates repeat their league title, then Clayton Valley will have a claim to the two seed based on their head-to-head win. Remember, the committee has been very consistent in this approach, regardless of what time of year the win occurred.
If Liberty beats Pittsburg, then the Lions could have a strong argument for the two seed with an unbeaten overall mark, followed by Clayton Valley and Pittsburg.
Liberty eliminated Antioch from Open Division consideration with its one-sided win last week, and right now the reality appears to be that both Pittsburg and Liberty are in line for Open berths. But Clayton Valley’s earlier win over Pittsburg means that the October 19 game between the two BVAL front-runners could not only be for the league title, but also to see who will avoid De La Salle in the semifinals.
DIVISION I
Projected seeds:
1. Monte Vista
2. Antioch
3. California
4. Freedom
5. San Ramon Valley
6. Amador Valley
7. Vintage
8. San Leandro
9. James Logan
10. Dublin
11. Dougherty Valley
Rationale: The debate between Antioch and Monte Vista could be interesting, since both teams have a win over California. Antioch does have the win over Clayton Valley, but also a loss to Freedom and the recent blowout loss to Liberty. If Monte Vista wins out, however, wins over Granada and San Ramon Valley will carry additional weight.
California’s win over Freedom has the Grizzlies with an edge, as does Freedom’s win over San Ramon Valley. San Ramon Valley has a better strength of schedule, playing in the Mountain Division, than does Amador Valley in the Valley Division of the EBAL. Vintage could move into the top seven as a potential league champion, especially after beating American Canyon, while San Leandro should get a top eight seed if the Pirates finish second in the WACC-Foothill.
Dublin’s loss to Livermore hurts the Gaels, and Dublin could be in a must-win scenario for its regular season finale against Dougherty Valley. Dougherty Valley could clinch eligibility with a win over Livermore this week, but otherwise the game against Dublin could decide a playoff berth.
James Logan has a win over Dougherty Valley, therefore placing the Colts above the Wildcats. No other teams are currently in line to become eligible, unless Deer Valley can beat either Antioch or Freedom.
DIVISION II
Projected seeds:
1. Bishop O’Dowd
2. Granada
3. Rancho Cotate
4. Campolindo
5. Marin Catholic
6. Ukiah
7. Benicia
8. American Canyon
9. Montgomery
10. Santa Rosa
11. Windsor
12. Maria Carrillo
13. Alhambra
14. Livermore
15. Redwood
16. Hayward
Rationale: O’Dowd’s win over Monte Vista looks even better now after the Mustangs beat California, and the losses to St. Mary’s-Stockton and De La Salle are both to Division I programs. Granada, meanwhile, could be on track for a one-loss season, as is Rancho Cotate, but the difference could be that the Matadors would be a league champion in that scenario. Granada’s game against Monte Vista this week will answer some questions here.
Rancho’s win over Campolindo, and Campo’s win over Marin Catholic, draw some clear lines in this portion of the field. Ukiah and Benicia both played Maria Carrillo, with Ukiah putting up a more convincing victory.
American Canyon comes in next, ahead of the NBL grouping, based on its win over Petaluma, who beat Montgomery, and the fact that the Wolves are on track for a second place finish in the VVAL. The group of NBL teams could get tricky, since Montgomery has a loss to Windsor, but now has wins over both Santa Rosa and Maria Carrillo and the best overall record of the group. Santa Rosa does have losses to Ukiah, Montgomery, and Carrillo, but also a big win over Windsor, and the Panthers have also clinched eligibility.
Windsor has a win over Montgomery, but also the loss to Santa Rosa, and the Jaguars still need to beat Ukiah or Carrillo to become eligible. Carrillo has big wins over Santa Rosa and Redwood, but needs to beat Rancho Cotate or Windsor to become eligible. If they beat Windsor, they would go ahead of the Jaguars; lose both those games, and they are on the outside looking in.
Alhambra should clinch eligibility with a win over Northgate, and the Bulldogs beat Livermore. Livermore increased its odds with a big win over Dublin, but still needs one more win in league play to clinch eligibility. Redwood has wins over Terra Linda and Tamalpais, while Hayward has close losses to Pinole Valley and Alameda.
Teams waiting in the wings should any of these teams fail to meet eligibility criteria include Bethel, Concord, and Casa Grande.
DIVISION III
Projected seeds:
1. Cardinal Newman
2. Eureka
3. Las Lomas
4. El Cerrito
5. Pinole Valley
6. Acalanes
7. Miramonte
8. Tennyson
9. Petaluma
10. De Anza
11. Encinal
12. Alameda
13. Terra Linda
14. Tamalpais
15. Kennedy-Fremont
16. Newark Memorial
Rationale: Cardinal Newman has a virtual stranglehold on the top seed here, barring a major upset. Eureka has a slightly better strength of schedule than Las Lomas, and if the Loggers win the HDN-Big 4, it would be more impressive than Las Lomas winning the DAL-Valley. Both teams are on track for unbeaten regular season records.
El Cerrito took a big step towards repeating as TCAL-Rock champions, beating Kennedy-Richmond, and with a head-to-head win over Acalanes, the Gauchos are in good shape for seeding this year. Pinole Valley will likely go unbeaten, but without a signature victory and a lower strength of schedule. Acalanes and Miramonte will decide the higher seed on the field, but that game also essentially serves a must-win game for Acalanes, unless the Dons beat Campolindo. If they lose to Campo, however, then Acalanes will need a win over Miramonte to become playoff-eligible.
Tennyson and Encinal have comparable wins over Alameda, but Encinal also has a loss to De Anza, which will be taken into consideration, while the Lancers have the potential to be league champions. Terra Linda’s win over Tamalpais has the Trojans above the Hawks, while Petaluma’s win over Terra Linda now looks impressive for the Trojans.
Kennedy and Newark Memorial are both in line to become eligible, but won’t have much of a case to move any higher. Piner could replace any team listed above should they fail to meet eligibility criteria, as the Prospectors have already clinched a .500 record against Division III competition.
DIVISION IV
Projected seeds:
1. Moreau Catholic
2. Fortuna
3. Kennedy-Richmond
4. Piedmont
5. San Marin
6. St. Bernard’s
7. Del Norte
8. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
9. Saint Mary’s
10. El Molino
11. Sonoma Valley
12. Justin-Siena
13. Lower Lake
14. Albany
15. Drake
Rationale: Moreau should finish the regular season unbeaten, with wins over both San Marin and St. Pat’s. If Kennedy finishes either 10-0 or 9-1 (possible loss to El Cerrito), then the Eagles would have a strong case for the two seed, though the 6-0 win over Sonoma Valley could become suspect and likely opens the door for Fortuna, whose only losses are to Cardinal Newman and Tracy.
Fortuna has a terrific strength of schedule, and wins over both Del Norte and James Logan right now, but the Huskies can’t afford more than a loss to Eureka to keep a top three seed. Piedmont’s non-league wins over Menlo, Salesian, and Justin-Siena all help the Highlanders, and competitive losses to San Leandro and Lincoln don’t hurt much, either.
San Marin helped itself big-time with a win over Redwood, and sports just a seven-point loss to Moreau. Meanwhile, St. Bernard’s has lost two straight, though the losses are to Marin Catholic and by two points to Tri Cities Prep in Washington. The Crusaders still lack a signature win, though, so beating Del Norte will be a must to keep a top six seed, while a win over Fortuna or Eureka would certainly send St. Bernard’s to a higher seed.
St. Pat’s and Saint Mary’s will decide their seeding on the field during league play, and Sonoma Valley just scored a win over Justin-Siena, all but ensuring the Dragons a seed in the top 11, if they become eligible, which is no small task. Sonoma Valley needs to beat either Petaluma or Vintage to meet eligibility criteria. El Molino’s win over Sonoma Valley has the Lions in good shape, and all they need to do for eligibility is beat Elsie Allen.
Lower Lake is eligible based on its big win over El Molino, but a recent loss to Willits and the overall record could prove very damaging. Albany and Drake are both eligible based on records versus Division IV opponents.
DIVISION V
Projected seeds:
1. Stellar Prep
2. Kelseyville
3. Cloverdale
4. Middletown
5. Berean Christian
6. St. Helena
7. Arcata
8. Hoopa Valley
9. St. Vincent de Paul
10. California School for the Deaf
11. Ferndale
Rationale: This might be going out on a limb, considering that Stellar Prep is likely to end the season with three wins, maybe four. But the Thunder did beat Kelseyville head-to-head, and the committee has stayed consistent with that rationale, and all losses are to higher division opponents. Kelseyville, meanwhile, handed Middletown a decisive loss, and if the Knights win the NCL, they will be no lower than the two seed.
The three seed will likely be decided by the winner of the game between Cloverdale and Middletown, while Berean Christian is now in the mix after the Eagles beat Concord and are now on track to meet qualification criteria, provided they beat Ygnacio Valley and Mt. Diablo.
Arcata moves into the top seven after its win over Hoopa Valley. Meanwhile, Hoopa’s win over Ferndale is better than any win currently possessed by CSD or St. Vincent.
St. Vincent has clinched eligibility now after its win over CSD. Ferndale should be able to become eligible, and can flip the seedings around if the Wildcats can beat Arcata in either game or Hoopa in that rematch.
Fort Bragg and Salesian are wild cards here. If Fort Bragg wins two of its last three, the Timberwolves become eligible, and would be almost certainly a top seven seed. If Salesian wins one of its final three, the Pride would actually make a compelling argument for the top seed.
