We are getting to the point of the Central Coast Section season where just a few key games can have a huge impact on the seedings for the playoffs. In this article, we will take a deeper dive into the CCS Open Division projections and take a closer look at some of these final moving parts.
If you refer to our main projections article, you will note that there are several differences between the seedings in our two main models. In one model, we predict the remaining games of the seasons and respective final CCS point totals; in the other, we look at where teams stand if the season ended today.
One of the biggest remaining questions is the fate of Wilcox, which is expected to land the No. 1 seed in either Division 1 or Division 2. As you probably know, Division 2 tends to be tougher – certainly deeper – because of the presence of most, if not all, of the West Catholic Athletic League playoff qualifiers.
In our prediction model, the top 3 teams in the WCAL – St. Francis, Valley Christian and Serra – are projected to be in Division 2.
To get a better idea of what needs to happen from here on out, it is easiest to look at the overall picture in the CCS Open playoffs, starting with the automatic qualifiers.
Five “A” divisions provide four automatic qualifiers each to the Open Division playoffs. Here is a breakdown of each:
BVAL –Mount Hamilton
Locks: Oak Grove (5-3, 4-1 BVAL), Piedmont Hills (4-4, 4-1), Live Oak (6-2, 3-2), Leland (4-4, 3-2).
Contenders: Santa Teresa (1-7, 1-4).
Lincoln currently sits atop this division, but the Lions do not participate in the CCS playoffs because of their Thanksgiving Day tradition of playing rival San Jose in the Big Bone Game. And while Santa Teresa has a path to earn one of the four automatic bids, it is highly unlikely. The Saints would need to beat Live Oak and Pioneer and see Live Oak also lose to Oak Grove.
PAL-Bay
Locks: Menlo-Atherton (6-2, 4-0), Terra Nova (7-1, 2-1), Sacred Heart Prep (6-1, 2-1).
Contenders: Menlo (4-4, 1-2), Aragon (1-7, 1-3), Half Moon Bay (3-5, 0-3).
Our model has Menlo edging out Aragon and Half Moon Bay for the final automatic bid, but there are certainly enough potential surprises out there for that to change. Half Moon Bay will likely be eliminated from contention this week when it takes on Menlo-Atherton, but Aragon meets Menlo in what will effectively be a play-in game Friday night in San Mateo.
An Aragon victory would push another school – right now projected to be Pioneer – into Division 3. If Menlo were to lose, the Knights could still work their way back to an automatic bid with a win over rival Sacred Heart Prep and some help.
PCAL-Gabilan:
Locks: Aptos (8-0, 5-0), Salinas (6-2, 5-0), Palma (7-1, 4-1), San Benito (5-3, 4-1).
Contenders: none.
The automatic bids are completely decided in the PCAL-Gabilan.
SCVAL-De Anza:
Locks: Wilcox (9-0, 5-0), Palo Alto (7-1, 3-1), Los Gatos (6-3, 3-2).
Contenders: Milpitas (4-4, 2-2), Cupertino (4-4, 1-3), Homestead (1-7, 1-3).
Milpitas travels to Cupertino this week and can wrap up an automatic bid with a win. Even with an upset win, Cupertino still has to travel to undefeated Wilcox in the season finale. The battle between Milpitas and Cupertino would affect other teams in the brackets because both teams would project to Division 1.
WCAL:
Locks: St. Francis (7-1, 5-0), Valley Christian (6-2, 4-1), Serra (5-3, 4-1).
Contenders: Sacred Heart Cathedral (5-3, 3-2), Archbishop Mitty (4-4, 2-3).
The fourth automatic bid will likely be on the line November 2 when Sacred Heart Cathedral travels to Mitty.
At-large contenders
We should point out that we have projected the same 20 automatic qualifiers in both models. So it is the four at-large teams that are going to drive the final brackets.
If the season ended today, the at-large teams would be: Archbishop Mitty, Cupertino, Bellarmine and Christopher. However, we are projecting that Pioneer and St. Ignatius will bump Cupertino and Bellarmine.
Here’s why:
Cupertino (16.5 CCS points) likely needs just one more win to qualify for the playoffs, but the Pioneers close out the season against Milpitas and Wilcox. Bellarmine (16.5) currently holds the third at-large bid, but would need a win over Valley Christian or St. Ignatius to improve its lot. Considering the Bells have been shut out in three of their last four games, that appears to be a tall order.
Meanwhile, Christopher (16) finishes the season against Alvarez and Gilroy, teams that have combined for just one league victory this season. Pioneer (16) also finishes with teams that have combined for one league win, beginning this Friday night at home against winless Westmont.
St. Ignatius (13.5) will be favored in its final two games against Archbishop Riordan and Bellarmine. Two wins would take the Wildcats to 17.5, good enough for the last at-large bid, assuming other results go as expected.
The at-large situation is important because Bellarmine and Cupertino are projected to fall in Division 1. That is why the “if the season ended today” projections have Palo Alto and Wilcox slotting into Division 2. If either of Bellarmine or Cupertino make the field, that would result in Wilcox landing in Division 2. Palo Alto seems safely locked into Division 1.
Half Moon Bay (15) can makes things interesting with one more win, but the schedule is daunting with the aforementioned game against Menlo-Atherton along with a matchup against playoff-bound Terra Nova.
