The regular season is complete. No more what-if’s, no future scenarios to ponder and consider. It is simply time for one final look at how all the teams performed and where they are likely to be seeded when the North Coast Section releases the official brackets on Sunday afternoon.
OPEN
Projected four teams:
1. De La Salle
2. Liberty
3. Clayton Valley
4. Pittsburg
Rationale: If we were ranking the teams on current ability, and recent results, then Pittsburg would have an argument for the three seed against Clayton Valley, with Antioch as a common opponent during the year. However, the committee has been very consistent with using head-to-head match-ups as a primary criteria, and the fact that Pittsburg did not scrimmage the week before that season-opening loss to the Ugly Eagles is not part of the stated criteria from the section.
In this bracket, three of the four teams – De La Salle, Clayton Valley and Pittsburg – would all be making their third appearances in the Open Division, which is how long it has been in existence. After winning last year’s Division I title, Liberty is in line to host an Open semifinal game, in the school’s first appearance in the division.
The Open Division does not play during the first week of the post-season.
DIVISION I
Projected seeds:
1. Monte Vista
2. California
3. Freedom
4. San Ramon Valley
5. Antioch
6. Amador Valley
7. Vintage
8. San Leandro
9. James Logan
10. Dougherty Valley
Rationale: The top five are almost anyone’s guess after San Ramon Valley’s win over Monte Vista on Friday. As crazy as it sounds, we have a feeling that the loss will not remove Monte Vista from the top seed, when the entire schedule is taken into consideration. But let’s look at the case each team has, and the different ways it could shake out.
Monte Vista, California and San Ramon Valley all finished tied for second place in the EBAL-Mountain behind De La Salle, and each team split the meetings between the other two. San Ramon Valley has the loss to Freedom, while California has the loss to Antioch. Antioch’s win over California could move the Panthers ahead of the Grizzlies, but they also have the loss to Freedom during league play, and that caused Antioch to finish fourth in the BVAL, the lowest league finish of any team in this group of five.
California, meanwhile, has a decisive win over Freedom, so using the Grizzlies as a place-holder in this group has them behind Monte Vista and ahead of San Ramon Valley. Monte Vista has a couple other strong quality wins going for the Mustangs, having knocked off Granite Bay to go with a 20-point win over EBAL-Valley champion Granada and a 35-point win over San Leandro. On that note, Antioch has the win over Clayton Valley, but the league finish and losing three of five down the stretch will be discussed as points to be made against the Panthers.
Amador Valley has a sparkling 8-2 record, but the Dons played in the second tier of the EBAL, so strength of schedule does not match up with the five teams ahead of them on this list. They also lost to a Granada team which was beaten by California and Monte Vista. It should, however, be enough to keep the Dons in the top six.
Vintage should be in the top seven as the champion from the VVAL, while San Leandro should get a top eight seed after finishing second in the WACC-Foothill, with all losses to higher-ranked teams.
James Logan’s win over Dougherty Valley slots the final two seeds. In this scenario, the top six teams will all have first-round byes, with Dougherty Valley heading to Vintage and James Logan facing San Leandro in a renewal of the Battle of 880.
DIVISION II
Projected seeds:
1. Rancho Cotate
2. Bishop O’Dowd
3. Granada
4. Campolindo
5. Marin Catholic
6. Ukiah
7. Benicia
8. American Canyon
9. Montgomery
10. Maria Carrillo
11. Santa Rosa
12. Alhambra
13. Livermore
14. Hayward
15. Casa Grande
16. Redwood
Rationale: Another division which will not be easy to sort out at the top or the bottom, but Rancho Cotate seems to have a full complement of quality wins which could land the Cougars in the top spot. Consider the fact that among Rancho’s five non-league victories, two were over league champions (Campolindo, El Cerrito) and the other three teams all finished second in their respective leagues (Vanden, Sacramento, Pleasant Valley). Also, the only loss is to Cardinal Newman.
O’Dowd’s win over Monte Vista lost a little luster when the Mustangs lost to San Ramon Valley, but Monte Vista also owns a win over Granada, so it is hard to imagine the Dragons lower than the two seed, especially as a league champion, and both losses are to elite Division I programs.
Both of Granada’s losses are also to Division I programs from the EBAL-Mountain, and the Matadors own quality wins over Amador Valley and Manteca, while also entering the playoffs as a league champion. But the debate between Granada and Campolindo for the three seed could be extensive, with Campolindo’s only losses to Clayton Valley and Rancho Cotate, while the Cougars have wins over Marin Catholic, El Cerrito, St. Ignatius and Miramonte.
Campo’s win over Marin Catholic draws a clear line between the top four and Marin Catholic at the five spot. Ukiah and Benicia both played Maria Carrillo as a common opponent, with Ukiah putting up a more convincing victory.
American Canyon comes in next, ahead of the NBL grouping, based on its one-sided win over Petaluma, who beat Montgomery, and the fact that the Wolves finished in second place finish in the VVAL. The group of NBL teams could get tricky, since Montgomery has a loss to Windsor, but has wins over both Santa Rosa and Maria Carrillo and the best overall record of the group, not to mention being an outright division champion. Speaking of Maria Carrillo, not only did the Pumas beat Windsor to become eligible, but they also have wins over Santa Rosa and Redwood, which should help immensely in seeding.
Santa Rosa’s win over Petaluma helps the Panthers, especially since the margin was considerably greater than the margin by which Casa Grande beat the Trojans.
Alhambra beat Livermore, who has a win over Division I playoff-bound Dougherty Valley and a competitive loss to Granada.
Redwood has wins over Terra Linda and Tamalpais, while Hayward has close losses to Pinole Valley and Alameda, plus a big win over Tennyson, which is slightly better than any win on Redwood’s slate. Casa Grande was on the bubble of making the field, until the win over Petaluma on Saturday. That win also looks better than anything on Redwood’s slate, though the common opponent score against Carrillo is in favor of Redwood. The teams also both played San Marin, with a comparable result.
This set of projections has an eligible Concord team on the outside looking in, and the same goes for Bethel, with both teams lacking a true quality win and both teams playing in lower tier divisions during league play.
DIVISION III
Projected seeds:
1. Cardinal Newman
2. Eureka
3. Las Lomas
4. El Cerrito
5. Miramonte
6. Pinole Valley
7. De Anza
8. Encinal
9. Tennyson
10. Alameda
11. Petaluma
12. Terra Linda
13. Tamalpais
14. Newark Memorial
15. Piner
Rationale: Cardinal Newman has a virtual stranglehold on the top seed here. Eureka has a slightly better strength of schedule than Las Lomas, and the Loggers won the HDN-Big 4 outright, which is more impressive than Las Lomas winning the DAL-Valley. Both teams completed unbeaten regular seasons.
El Cerrito is the outright TCAL-Rock champion, but Miramonte did put up an impressive victory over Acalanes, with a larger margin of victory over the Dons than what El Cerrito posted. However, the Gauchos are league champs, and their win over De Anza was more convincing than Miramonte’s win over the Dons, as both common opponents must be factored. Pinole Valley enters the playoffs undefeated, with wins over Benicia, De Anza, Hayward and Alhambra, but the Spartans’ win over De Anza was closer than either El Cerrito’s or Miramonte’s, and they cannot match the depth of quality victories which those teams possess.
De Anza’s win over Encinal, and competitive losses to both Pinole Valley and Miramonte should help the Dons get a top seven seed, while Encinal has been competitive in the WACC-Foothill, with a win over Alameda and close loss to Division I San Leandro and Bishop O’Dowd.
Tennyson’s loss to Hayward could really hurt the Lancers, especially because it leaves them not only in a three-way for first place in their league, but also with Alameda as their only real quality victory. Meanwhile, Petaluma can tout wins over Montgomery and Terra Linda, while all four Trojans’ losses are also to playoff-bound teams. But the loss this Saturday to Casa Grande is a bad one, and should drop them behind Tennyson and Alameda.
Terra Linda’s win over Tamalpais has the Trojans above the Hawks.
Newark Memorial and Piner are both eligible, but won’t have much of a case to move any higher. Kennedy-Fremont was also eligible, but did not apply.
One extra item of note – based on the preseason draw, Alameda has earned the champion designation from the WACC-Shoreline with the three-way tie for the division title. This will not affect seeding, and will only look affect a home game in the first round if Alameda plays a non-league champion. In this scenario, matched up with De Anza would result in a home game for Alameda.
DIVISION IV
Projected seeds:
1. Moreau Catholic
2. Del Norte
3. Kennedy-Richmond
4. San Marin
5. St. Bernard’s
6. Fortuna
7. Piedmont
8. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
9. Saint Mary’s
10. Justin-Siena
11. El Molino
12. Albany
Rationale: Moreau finished the regular season unbeaten, with wins over both San Marin and St. Pat’s. Below that gets a little sticky after Saturday’s results.
Del Norte beating both Fortuna and St. Bernard’s down the stretch, plus an earlier win over 6-1 Mazama-Oregon, gives the Warriors a strong resume for the two seed, followed by a Kennedy team which lost to Salesian on Saturday, but has quality wins over Deer Valley, St. Pat’s and Saint Mary’s.
Fortuna has a terrific strength of schedule, and wins over both Del Norte and James Logan, but the Huskies fell to 5-5 with the loss to Eureka, and have recent losses to both Del Norte and St. Bernard’s. San Marin, meanwhile, has a close seven-point loss to Moreau and quality wins over Redwood and Tamalpais. Piedmont took a big hit by losing to Castro Valley on Friday, but wins over Menlo and Salesian are huge.
St. Pat’s beat Saint Mary’s head to head, so that pecking order is settled. Both Lower Lake and Drake were eligible, but neither applied, so it appears this will be a 12-team field, with byes to the top four teams.
DIVISION V
Projected seeds:
1. Salesian
2. Stellar Prep
3. Kelseyville
4. Fort Bragg
5. Middletown
6. Berean Christian
7. St. Helena
8. Cloverdale
9. Arcata
10. Hoopa Valley
11. Ferndale
12. St. Vincent de Paul
13. California School for the Deaf
Rationale: It would not be surprising if the committee breathed a sigh of relief when Salesian routed St. Pat’s to become playoff eligible, as the Pride make for a logical top seed with wins over Kennedy, St. Pat’s, Riordan and Saint Mary’s. Overall record would place Kelseyville as the two seed, but the Knights have a head-to-head loss against Stellar Prep, which has played a solid independent schedule, including close losses to Deer Valley and Fortuna. Kelseyville, meanwhile, went unbeaten in the NCL and has a top-three seed locked up.
Fort Bragg’s recent wins over Middletown and St. Helena, combined with Middletown and St. Helena both beating Cloverdale, sets a pecking order there, with Berean Christian sliding in under the Middletown team which beat them by one point.
Arcata won the HDN-Little 4, good enough for the nine seed, while Hoopa Valley’s two wins over Ferndale set those two spots.
St. Vincent clinched eligibility after its win over CSD, and will be seeded ahead of the Eagles. The top three seeds here will receive byes.
