Two main changes to the CCS postseason should be taken into account this year. First, there is no longer a limit on the number of teams from any enrollment division heading to the Open Division. With teams being sorted into different divisions based on competitive balance for the state tournament, there’s no need to limit teams coming from any one enrollment division, so all Open Division teams and enrollment division finalists will qualify for the state tournament. Additional teams will be eligible for remaining at-large berths to round out the field.
The other major change this year is a result of the condensed schedule. With the quarterfinals being held on a weeknight (Tuesday, February 19), there is no way to hold a quadruple-header at a neutral site, as has been the standard in the CCS for 20-plus years. Quarterfinals will be played at home sites, meaning the top four seeds will play home games for the first time since 2007. The double-bye format, which has been intact since 2008, will still be in use, but only the semifinals and championship games will be played at neutral sites.
Open Division
For a third consecutive year, we expect the Open Division to have five WCAL teams. At this point, four of those teams are basically locked in, while the fifth will likely come down to St. Ignatius and St. Francis. SI is in a similar position to the one Mitty dealt with last year, needing a .500 league record to qualify for the playoffs altogether. As of now, our projections have the Wildcats winning three of their final four games to qualify. Should they qualify, they’ll likely be ahead of St. Francis in the WCAL and secure that last Open spot.
As for the three other spots, it currently looks like Menlo-Atherton, Monterey and Mountain View have the inside track for those berths.
Monterey’s loss at Alisal on Friday has the Toreadores in a precarious position, but for the moment, we still have them projected to reach the Open Division. Their win against Liberty is a huge boost, and should be enough to compensate for one league loss, but any further defeats would likely give the spot to another team. Leland has a better shot than Leigh out of the BVAL Mt. Hamilton Division, as the Chargers have just two losses. Mountain View also had a cushion with a huge nonleague win over St. Mary’s-Stockton, which will help make up for Tuesday’s loss to Los Gatos.
With Leigh’s loss to Piedmont Hills on Wednesday, another loss by Leland and further defeats by other Open contenders could open the door for Carlmont. The Scots host Menlo-Atherton on Friday and could face the Bears again in the PAL Tournament.
Last year’s field saw WCAL teams seeded 1, 4, 5, 6 and 8, but this year, only one WCAL team has lost to a CCS opponent from outside of the league. Santa Cruz took down a shorthanded St. Francis team on December 27, and as the Cardinals are highly unlikely to reach the Open Division and haven’t faced any of the other likely Open teams, the WCAL teams will likely have most of the top seeds. The fifth WCAL team has had the eighth seed each of the last two years, so they’ll be projected there once again.
The only team that seems to have a real shot at taking one of the higher seeds away from the WCAL and skewing the matchups is Menlo-Atherton. The Bears didn’t beat any WCAL opponents, but they played tight games against both Bellarmine and Mitty, despite two starters still playing football at the time.
Projected seeds
1. Riordan
2. Mitty
3. Bellarmine
4. Serra
5. Menlo-Atherton
6. Mountain View
7. Monterey
8. St. Ignatius
Division I
Of the 24 teams in Division I, 17 are currently qualified for the postseason, with Silver Creek needing just one more league win to become an 18th. Sequoia and Monta Vista also have a shot at cracking the field, with Sequoia having the better odds of the two.
Fortunately, two spots will likely be vacated by Open Division teams (currently projected to be Bellarmine and Menlo-Atherton), so if 18 Division I teams get in, all will be accomodated. Should a 19th or 20th qualify, there will be eligible teams left out of the postseason.
As of now, our projections have 18 teams eligible, though Sequoia’s remaining schedule is quite favorable. As soon as the Cherokees reach the six league wins needed, they’ll likely bounce one of the teams out. There’s a good chance Silver Creek ends up being that team, though Santa Clara and Watsonville could both use a strong win to shore up their resumes.
One of the biggest difficulties of seeding the Division I field will be the strength of Alvarez and Independence, as both teams have put together better results than teams in the higher divisions of their power leagues. Alvarez is currently projected to be ahead of one Gabilan Division team, Salinas, by virtue of a head-to-head win over the Cowboys. Independence was on the board ahead of Evergreen Valley in our most recent projections, but with the 76ers losing to Sobrato, they’re now likely to be seeded below any Mt. Hamilton teams. Milpitas is likely stuck behind five De Anza teams, though if the Trojans could overtake Wilcox for the SCVAL El Camino title, that could change. Watsonville could also snag a first-round home game by winning the PCAL Santa Lucia title.
Palo Alto does have a head-to-head win over Alisal, but with the Trojans beating Monterey last Friday, they are currently projected ahead of the Vikings. That battle for the fourth and fifth seeds means a double bye is at stake, as well as a home quarterfinal game. A win over Mountain View next Monday could put Palo Alto ahead of Cupertino and completely change the landscape, though.
Projected seeds
1. Carlmont
2. Piedmont Hills
3. Cupertino
4. Alisal
5. Palo Alto
6. Homestead
7. Los Gatos
8. Alvarez
9. Los Altos
10. Milpitas
11. Evergreen Valley
12. Independence
Salinas (vs. Milpitas), Santa Clara (vs. Evergreen Valley), Silver Creek (vs. Los Altos), Watsonville (vs. Independence)
Division II
The Division II teams should be pleased with changes made this year to the CCS’ playoff system. There is no longer a limit on three teams per enrollment division, and all section finalists will advance to the state tournament. In past years, there were always three Division II teams selected to play in Open, and only the Division II winner would advance to the state tournament.
If St. Francis cracks the top five of the WCAL, there could be four Division II teams playing in the Open field. If the Lancers finish sixth or lower, they’ll likely be a top seed in Division II. As of now, they’re sixth, so they’re projected in the D-II field. They could also snag an Open berth if St. Ignatius fails to reach a .500 league record, even if the Lancers finish in sixth.
There are still three Division II teams set to go Open, with Mitty, Serra and Mountain View expected to make the field. The remaining Division II teams mostly come from the BVAL and SCVAL. Leigh is tied with Leland in the standings and would currently be placed first by winning the first head-to-head meeting, but the February 6 rematch will likely decide the Mt. Hamilton title.
Wilcox is in the SCVAL El Camino Division, but is currently projected as a league champion and therefore has the ability to be placed ahead of Gunn.
The bracket has 14 teams, and since the bottom is so full of teams from the BVAL West Valley, league opponents will be forced to meet in the first round. Christopher could make it in as a 15th team with a .500 league record, which would allow for the seeding committee to avoid first-round league matchups. If the Cougars make it in, they could face a BVAL team and Yerba Buena could face Gunn.
The Branham-Pioneer game on February 8 and Friday’s Lincoln-Hill game will have a significant effect on seeding.
Projected seeds
1. St. Francis
2. Valley Christian
3. Leland
4. Leigh
5. Willow Glen
6. Wilcox
7. Aragon
8. Branham
9. Pioneer
10. Gunn
11. Lincoln
12. Hill
Gilroy (vs. Hill), Yerba Buena (vs. Lincoln)
Division III
At the moment, Division III has three teams playing in the Open Division: Riordan, Monterey and St. Ignatius. In most scenarios where St. Ignatius doesn’t end up in the Open Division, the Wildcats finish with a sub-.500 league record and miss the playoffs entirely. The only way they end up in Division III would be if they managed to finish 7-7 in the WCAL but were surpassed by St. Francis, which would require St. Francis to win out and St. Ignatius to beat all other teams aside from St. Francis.
With those three aforementioned teams heading to Open, there’s a massive drop-off from Sacred Heart Cathedral to the rest of the D-III field. The Irish have slipped up in the quarterfinals and semifinals in the last two years, but for them to do so this year would be highly unlikely.
Our prior projections were made with Sobrato trailing Live Oak in the BVAL Santa Teresa standings. That meant Live Oak had to be seeded first, and with the Bulldogs now ahead of the Acorns, they can be seeded ahead. That means a seven-spot jump, as they now sit in the fifth position between Saratoga and Aptos.
As of now, 14 teams are projected in the field, though Gunderson and Live Oak have uncertain fates. Burlingame still needs to ensure a .500 league record to qualify.
Projected seeds
1. Sacred Heart Cathedral
2. Soquel
3. Hillsdale
4. Saratoga
5. Sobrato
6. Aptos
7. North Monterey County
8. Mills
9. Westmoor
10. Pajaro Valley
11. Burlingame
12. Live Oak
Del Mar (vs. Burlingame), Greenfield (vs. Live Oak)
Division IV
Of the enrollment divisions, Division IV might have the best of all the tournaments. It’s unlikely for any D-IV team to go to the Open Division, but the top five teams are all good enough to be a top seed in any of the other divisions as well. Carmel is the lone Division IV team with a serious chance at qualifying for the Open Division, but unless the Padres surpass Monterey, they’ll likely have the top D-IV seed. Beyond that, teams like Pacific Grove and the three from the PAL North (Half Moon Bay, Jefferson and Terra Nova) make for an extremely strong top eight. It’s unfortunate that the quarterfinals won’t be on a Saturday, as the condensed playoff schedule has forced them to home sites on Tuesday, February 19. It would have made for a quadruple-header of excellent games. The great action will be more spread out under the new schedule, but nonetheless, there is excellent basketball on tap in Division IV. The top six spots will be heavily reliant on the results in the WBAL, as three of those teams are all vying for the league title. Similarly, the 8-10 seeds may come down to the standings in the PAL North.
Pacific Grove is in a lower division of the PCAL than Palma, but a head-to-head victory has the Breakers ahead of the Chieftains.
Our newest projections reflect Menlo surpassing Sacred Heart Prep in the WBAL standings and Terra Nova’s half-game lead over Half Moon Bay in the PAL North. Jefferson is likely to win the North, so Terra Nova and Half Moon Bay’s seeding could come down to their meeting on February 8 at the CUSD Event Center.
Projected seeds
1. Carmel
2. Santa Cruz
3. King’s Academy
4. Menlo
5. Pacific Grove
6. Sacred Heart Prep
7. Palma
8. Jefferson
9. Terra Nova
10. Half Moon Bay
11. Harker
12. Gonzales
Division V
Much of Division V is comprised of teams from the PSAL, and many of those teams either haven’t played a full nonleague schedule or haven’t put the games on MaxPreps. Assuming these teams are just playing fewer than 24 games, most need a .500 league record to qualify, so our projections could change significantly in the coming weeks as those games are played out.
The top seeds, though, are largely set in stone at this point. Eastside College Prep is in the hunt for the WBAL title and is clearly a cut above the other D-V teams from the WBAL. St. Francis SCP, Stevenson and Nueva are also in line for high seeds.
Thursday’s game between Kehillah Jewish and Mountain View Academy could end up being for a first-round home game.
With KIPP San Jose Collegiate currently below .500, Anzar is projected to take the last spot.
Projected seeds
1. Eastside College Prep
2. St. Francis SCP
3. Stevenson
4. Nueva
5. More
6. Woodside Priory
7. Pinewood
8. Oakwood
9. University Prep Academy
10. Pacific Bay Christian
11. Mountain View Academy
12. Summit Shasta
Anzar (vs. Summit Shasta), Kehillah Jewish (vs. Mountain View Academy), Pacific Collegiate (vs. Pacific Bay Christian), York (vs. University Prep Academy)
