Our North Coast Section girls soccer playoff projections break down which teams should be in the field and which teams are still fighting to get in. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we have ranked the teams accordingly, and discussed the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
One disclaimer – there may be the possibility of other teams becoming eligible based on record against teams in their own division, but this would likely only affect one or two other teams. In the cases where there are 16 teams listed, there may be others on the bubble who may not currently be included based on what lies ahead on the schedule.
In this edition, we break down the criteria for the first two divisions, while listing projections for the bottom two divisions. Please note, however, that the same criteria is applied to the bottom two divisions.
DIVISION I
Monte Vista is a lock for the one seed, with Carondelet trailing closely behind for the two seed. San Ramon Valley is unbeaten outside the EBAL, and has a draw with Carondelet within the league. But the common opponent between SRV and Liberty where there are different results is Amador Valley – the Wolves beat Amador, while the Dons handed Liberty a defeat, and that should come into play when these teams are placed side-by-side on the board.
Liberty is unbeaten in the BVAL, and has solid non-league wins over league champions Berkeley and James Logan. Berkeley is unbeaten in the WACC-Foothill, and all three non-league losses would be to higher-seeded teams, indicating strength of non-league schedule. California has tied San Ramon Valley twice, and also played to a draw with Archbishop Mitty, but the Grizzlies also have a loss against Heritage, who was swept by Liberty. Granted, they also have a win over Amador Valley, who beat Liberty, but not being a league champ will also factor into these seedings.
College Park is a bit difficult to seed with all the ties on their schedule, and a recent loss to Benicia, but the Falcons did beat Clayton Valley head-to-head, and one of those ties is against Liberty, who beat James Logan. James Logan is unbeaten in the MVAL, but also has a loss to Campolindo, who tied with College Park. Clayton Valley has wins over Amador Valley, Freedom and Granada, and would have a strong case to go ahead of Logan if the Eagles did not also have a head-to-head loss against Campolindo.
Amador Valley has the edge over Freedom, based on Liberty as a common opponent. Despite the win over the Lions, it is hard to imagine the Dons getting seeded any higher due to losses against Clayton Valley and California, a split with Granada and the fact that they need to beat Foothill on Thursday to become eligible. If Amador Valley loses to Foothill, then they will not meet the eligibility criteria for the post-season.
Freedom and Granada will be tough to separate for the 11 and 12 seed. Freedom has the better overall record, and an earlier draw with Liberty, but Granada has a recent draw with Carondelet. Granada does, however, has a win over Heritage while the Falcons and the Patriots played to a draw in the first meeting. A Freedom victory against Heritage on Thursday could move them up a spot, while a loss would likely drop the Falcons to the 13 seed, and move Heritage into the 12 spot.
The only eligible team not in this projected field right now is Vintage. The Crushers would get in if Amador Valley loses to Foothill in the regular season finale.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Monte Vista
2. Carondelet
3. San Ramon Valley
4. Liberty
5. Berkeley
6. California
7. College Park
8. James Logan
9. Clayton Valley
10. Amador Valley
11. Granada
12. Freedom
13. Heritage
14. Castro Valley
15. Irvington
16. San Leandro
DIVISION II
Let’s address the bottom of the bracket first – if Concord can manage a draw or win against Northgate, then the Minutemen would be eligible, and seeded above at least Arroyo. Also, if Windsor can manage just one draw in its final two games against Analy and Cardinal Newman, then the Jaguars will also be eligible.
At the top, Montgomery has a head-to-head win over Redwood and a dominating victory over Northgate. Redwood is otherwise unbeaten. Livermore and Northgate played to a draw, but we are giving the Cowboys the nod here based on elite wins over San Ramon Valley and California.
Tamalpais actually handed Montgomery an earlier loss, but lost in the semifinals of the MCAL tournament, so the Red-Tailed Hawks will probably have to claw their way in on the road. Maria Carrillo also handed Montgomery one of its losses, but the Vikings avenged that defeat in the second meeting. It is not a stretch to say that any of the top six seeds can win the title.
All of Bishop O’Dowd’s losses are to quality opponents, and the Dragons have wins over Las Lomas, Windsor, Alameda and Arroyo. Casa Grande has losses to Montgomery, Tamalpais and Maria Carrillo, but also a big non-league win over Santa Rosa, which will definitely come into play. Benicia has big wins over Concord and College Park, plus an elite-level draw against River City-Sacramento. Benicia and Las Lomas play to finish the regular season, so some seeding is certainly at stake there.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Montgomery
2. Redwood
3. Livermore
4. Northgate
5. Tamalpais
6. Maria Carrillo
7. Bishop O’Dowd
8. Casa Grande
9. Benicia
10. Santa Rosa
11. Las Lomas
12. Newark Memorial
13. Alameda
14. Arroyo
DIVISION III PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Petaluma
2. Miramonte
3. El Cerrito
4. Campolindo
5. Acalanes
6. Alhambra
7. Pinole Valley
8. Analy
9. Drake
10. Encinal
11. Rancho Cotate
12. Piner
DIVISION IV PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Branson
2. Marin Academy
3. Cardinal Newman
4. Piedmont
5. Urban
6. Head-Royce
7. St. Joseph Notre Dame
8. University
9. Saint Mary’s
10. Salesian
11. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
12. Swett
13. Redwood Christian
