With the North Coast Section seeding meeting happening this Saturday, we are releasing our playoff projections the day before. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we have ranked the teams accordingly, and discussed the criteria used.
Remember, this is us trying to see things through the eyes of the committee, and can vary widely from our rankings in some instances. For the bottom divisions, with teams spread throughout the section and common opponents not always in play, we simply wrote a synopsis of where the top teams are likely to land.
DIVISION I
Projected Seeds:
1. De La Salle
2. Acalanes
3. Amador Valley
4. Foothill
5. Clayton Valley
6. College Park
7. San Ramon Valley
8. Monte Vista
9. Heritage
10. Berkeley
11. Freedom
12. Dougherty Valley
13. Liberty
14. Dublin
15. San Leandro
16. James Logan
Criteria: The first three seeds all seem solid at this point. Acalanes and Amador Valley both split with Foothill, but we have Acalanes listed higher as an unbeaten league champion. The Dons also swept College Park and Clayton Valley, plus have a non-league win over San Ramon Valley.
After the first three, it gets messy. Foothill was swept by Monte Vista and lost to San Ramon Valley, but also has wins over College Park and Heritage, plus a split with both Acalanes and Amador Valley. Clayton Valley and College Park split their meetings, but Clayton Valley is finishing ahead of College Park in the league standings. College Park, meanwhile, just notched a big non-league win over San Ramon Valley.
San Ramon Valley and Monte Vista split their meetings, but SRV won the more recent meeting and also finished ahead of the Mustangs in the EBAL standings. Monte Vista has a head-to-head win over BVAL champion Heritage, while Heritage beat Berkeley. Berkeley also beat Freedom, Dougherty Valley and San Ramon Valley, while Freedom beat Dougherty Valley and finished ahead of Liberty in the league standings.
Despite a worse overall record, Dougherty Valley beat both Liberty and Dublin head to head. Liberty and Dublin are pretty comparable with common opponents, except in the case of Deer Valley, which Liberty swept while the Wolverines beat Dublin. San Leandro is eligible, but its only contact with teams on this list was against Berkeley, and the Pirates were swept in that series. James Logan is also eligible based on league record, but went 0-10 outside of league play.
DIVISION II
Projected Seeds:
1. Washington
2. Tamalpais
3. Maria Carrillo
4. Marin Catholic
5. Drake
6. Redwood
7. Northgate
8. Casa Grande
9. Petaluma
10. Ukiah
11. Arroyo
12. Benicia
13. Windsor
14. Alameda
15. Newark Memorial
16. Bethel
Criteria: This might be the longest meeting at the NCS office on Saturday. Simply put, every team in the field boasts a wide range of quality victories and head-scratching losses. Washington is a clear league champion and has wins over teams such as Arroyo, Monte Vista and Bishop O’Dowd. But the Huskies also did not play any of the MCAL teams listed below them and have a loss to Northgate. That one spot is very tentative.
With the three and four seeds advancing to the MCAL title game this week, that group of four is in flux, but we have all four of them in the top six. Even though Drake beat Tamalpais, the Hawks did beat the Pirates in two of three meetings, so we have Tam with the highest spot for now. Tam also has a head-to-head win over the Maria Carrillo team which beat Marin Catholic.
After Redwood, you could almost throw the next half-dozen teams in a hat and start drawing names. Northgate’s overall and league record are the worst of the bunch, but the Broncos also have wins over Washington, Maria Carrillo, Casa Grande and Ukiah, plus a split with Benicia. Of course, just to make things interesting, Benicia finished ahead of Northgate in the DAL-Foothill standings, but all those quality wins within this field will make it hard to drop Northgate any lower.
Petaluma is another extremely tough placement. The Trojans have wins over Tamalpais, Redwood, Vacaville, Tracy and Serra-San Mateo, but also lost two of three this year to Casa Grande. Despite the excellent strength of schedule, that set with Casa Grande and a couple other bad losses could bite the Trojans in the seeding meeting.
Ukiah beat Arroyo and Windsor head-to-head, and also won two of three games against Maria Carrillo, but lost the most recent match-up in the league tournament. Benicia has a pair of wins over College Park and split with Northgate, meaning the Panthers could rise as high as eight in these projections. Windsor beat Alameda in head-to-head play.
DIVISION III
Projected Seeds:
1. Cardinal Newman
2. Las Lomas
3. Sonoma Valley
4. Bishop O’Dowd
5. Alhambra
6. Eureka
7. Kennedy-Fremont
8. San Marin
9. Pinole Valley
10. St. Joseph Notre Dame
11. Piner
12. Encinal
13. Moreau Catholic
14. Albany
15. Ygnacio Valley
Criteria: Cardinal Newman should be a clear choice for the top seed here, while Las Lomas’ win over Sonoma Valley this week gives the Knights the inside track for the two seed. Sonoma Valley’s wins over O’Dowd and Alhambra should have the Dragons in line for the three seed.
Eureka’s wins over Ukiah and Fort Bragg should help the Loggers with seeding this year, and the same should go for Kennedy beating Arroyo and splitting with Washington. San Marin also has a few impressive wins in league play, having split with all of the top teams in the MCAL.
DIVISION IV
McKinleyville has the best overall record and beat Arcata three out of four times. That should be enough to get the Panthers the inside track to the top seed, especially with the way everyone else has been beating each other. Fort Bragg has a strong case for the two seed, especially after sweeping Middletown and avenging a 14-inning loss to St. Helena with a blowout victory.
Redwood Christian has big wins over Salesian and Lick-Wilmerding, who is playing for the BCL-West title, but also a lopsided loss to Piedmont. Lick-Wilmerding has a big win over St. Helena, who split with Fort Bragg and also has a win over Piedmont.
The most interesting resume might belong to St. Patrick-St. Vincent, who has won three out of four meetings with Saint Mary’s and also owns a win over Redwood Christian. The Bruins could make a strong case for three seed.
DIVISION V
With wins over The Bay School, Piedmont, St. Helena, Stuart Hall and Alhambra, Berean Christian should be the top seed in this division. Athenian and St. Bernard’s can both make strong cases for the two seed, with better strength of schedule than other teams in this division – outside of Berean – and Athenian also has a key head-to-head win over Fremont Christian. We would not be surprised to see Athenian and St. Bernard’s go two and three, in that order.
The Bay School has a big win over St. Vincent de Paul, who swept the season series from Sonoma Academy. But Urban has won two of three games against Stuart Hall, who also beat The Bay School. Urban and Stuart Hall can both make claims to the four and five spots, with Fremont Christian also in that discussion, as those three teams should round out the top six. After that, The Bay School can make a claim to the seven seed with a win over International in the BCL-Central title game, while Ferndale should also be in the discussion for a top-eight seed, and winning one out of three against St. Bernard’s and splitting four games with South Fork might be enough to get the Wildcats up to the seven seed.
St. Vincent de Paul, University, Drew and Sonoma Academy should all fall in line after The Bay School and Ferndale.
DIVISION VI
Splitting four games against St. Bernard’s and Ferndale could help South Fork grab the top seed in this division. Point Arena and Credo are also teams to keep an eye on.
