Our first round of CCS boys basketball playoff projections is here, and there’s no shortage of intrigue with two-and-a-half weeks remaining until the seeding meeting. There are no changes to the format from last season, either in terms of seeding or scheduling. What has changed, though, are the teams in contention across the Open Division and five enrollment divisions. Of course, selection for the Open Division has a domino effect across the rest of the field, so seedings will change accordingly as teams move up and down in the coming weeks.
Each division will be broken down in its appropriate section, but one thing must be remembered: Leagues can only put one team up for seeding at a time. This can create a logjam effect if a better team finishes behind a lesser team in their league standings, because teams from other leagues could supersede that lesser team, leaving the better team waiting in the wings as well.
Open Division
After a record seven WCAL teams made the Open Division last year, it looks like five or six will enter the 2020 edition. The top six teams are all but locked in at this point, barring any major upsets. The top five WCAL teams and Menlo-Atherton have essentially punched their tickets, though the Bears do have their most challenging week of league play still to come with Hillsdale and Sequoia.
Past those six is where it gets tricky. The final two spots will likely go to some mix of Carmel, Los Altos, Menlo, Sacred Heart Cathedral, Sacred Heart Prep and St. Ignatius. The WBAL champion will certainly be playing in the Open, meaning tons of eyes will be on Friday’s Menlo/SHP rematch. The Knights took the first meeting on the road, and both teams own wins over St. Ignatius to bolster their resumes. In fact, neither have what could be considered a bad loss at all, with their only in-section defeats coming to projected Open teams and out-of-section defeats coming to top-notch competition. Scenarios for both to make the field are unlikely, but the two have deserving results this season, regardless of what happens head-to-head. Technically speaking, Palma and Palo Alto also both have a shot at cracking the field, but both will need tons of dominoes to fall their way for it to even be a possibility.
Both Carmel and Los Altos appeared to be on track to make it for most of the year, but league losses have cast doubt on both. The Padres played a soft schedule through the early part of December as so many of their players had been playing football, and though they played well against Branson and Whitney, they lost both of those games. Los Altos has a strong win over St. Mary’s-Stockton, but the Eagles have been stuck in close games with teams like Milpitas as of late. Carmel’s loss to Palma and Los Altos’ defeat against Palo Alto leave both needing to win their respective rematches to have a shot. With Carmel the far more senior-heavy team and already having won the Division IV crown last year, it would be far more reasonable to put the Padres in the Open Division if results permit, especially considering that playoff history is one of the factors. As of now, Los Altos has the edge thanks to the significant win over St. Mary’s-Stockton and a stronger league, but both teams have four games remaining to sort things out.
As was the case last year, though, there are WCAL teams in the mix for the last Open spot as well. Defending champion Sacred Heart Cathedral is tied with St. Ignatius for sixth in the WCAL, having split head-to-head meetings, but neither have any particularly impressive nonleague wins. If either one could pick up a strong win towards the end of league play, they’ll have a split with one of the other Open teams and would therefore have a much stronger argument.
As of now, Los Altos is given the last seed without forecasting future results. It should be noted that a win at Palma on the final night of the regular season would likely tip the scales in Carmel’s favor, and the Eagles certainly can’t afford a sweep at Palo Alto’s hands in a Valentine’s Day rematch.
Projected seeds
1) Riordan
2) Mitty
3) Bellarmine
4) Serra
5) Menlo-Atherton
6) St. Francis
7) Menlo
8) Los Altos
Division I
The Division I picture is probably the most confusing to sort out of the enrollment divisions, with so many parts still in motion. As of now, Los Altos is projected as an Open Division team, which would create a domino effect throughout the entire field. For the moment, Homestead and Cupertino sit even in the SCVAL De Anza standings, with Homestead holding a head-to-head sweep. If the teams finish tied, the Mustangs would have to go on the board first thanks to that head-to-head sweep, and with a 22-point loss to Independence in late December, it would be hard to see the 76ers behind the Mustangs. In turn, that knocks Cupertino all the way down to the ninth seed, and if Los Altos was to drop down, that would have the Pioneers tenth. However, if they can find a way to finish ahead of their crosstown rivals despite the season sweep, they could be up around a fifth or sixth seed.
There will almost certainly be more than 16 teams eligible for the Division I field, even if Bellarmine and Los Altos are both in the Open Division. As of now, Silver Creek is projected in, needing to win just one of four remaining games to earn eligibility. If Carlmont wins three of four to qualify, Fremont or San Benito would likely be bounced. North Salinas could also be eligible with a .500 league record, but the odds of the Vikings getting into the field are next to zero.
Projected seeds
1) Palo Alto
2) Piedmont Hills
3) Sequoia
4) Mountain View
5) Evergreen Valley
6) Santa Teresa
7) Independence
8) Homestead
9) Cupertino
10) Salinas
11) Milpitas
12) Los Gatos
Alisal (vs. Independence), Fremont (vs. Salinas), San Benito (vs. Los Gatos), Silver Creek (vs. Milpitas)
Division II
Projecting Division II is especially tricky with jumbled league standings. As of now, Leigh has yet to qualify for the playoffs, needing to win three of five games for eligibility, but if the Longhorns get in, they’d be ahead of Leland. At the same time, the Chargers have a win over Palo Alto, a team that has a win over Valley Christian. The Warriors are a particularly difficult team to place because they presently lack any strong wins, having played a weak nonleague schedule to ensure playoff eligibility, a necessary measure in the WCAL. Additionally, San Mateo and Woodside are jockeying for position in the PAL, and Aragon could get in the mix by qualifying; the Dons have to win three of their last four games.
Wilcox’s loss to Branham not only hurts the Chargers but the rest of the SCVAL El Camino teams, as it helps put the bulk of the division behind the BVAL Santa Teresa. The Chargers do have one very solid nonleague win against Washington-Fremont, but the in-section results are damaging. Pioneer’s loss to Gunn could push some of the SCVAL El Camino teams ahead of the Mustangs, and if Pioneer ends up topping Oak Grove for the league title, there could be a massive domino effect. San Mateo and Woodside are also especially hard to place as both played soft nonleague schedules with very few common opponents among the rest of the Division II field.
With three teams going to the Open Division in Mitty, Serra and St. Francis, there will likely be enough spots for all qualified teams. Subtracting those three, there are currently 14 teams to be seeded, with Aragon and Leigh in the hunt for a .500 league record. Gunn has an outside shot as well, so if all three of the aforementioned teams do qualify, there could be 17 teams vying for 16 spots and one left out. Our current projections have Leigh in and Aragon out.
Projected seeds
1) Hillsdale
2) Valley Christian
3) Leigh
4) Willow Glen
5) Leland
6) Oak Grove
7) Wilcox
8) Santa Clara
9) Pioneer
10) San Mateo
11) Woodside
12) Hill
Christopher (vs. Hill), Gilroy (vs. Woodside), Lynbrook (vs. San Mateo)
Division III
Division III is a tightly-packed field past the San Francisco teams. Riordan is not only a lock for the Open Division, but likely the very top team, while Sacred Heart Cathedral and St. Ignatius are on the bubble. As of now, both SHC and SI are going to be in the Division III field.
Sobrato’s head-to-head win over Aptos puts an interesting wrinkle into the seedings, as it gives the Bulldogs a slight edge and a more likely shot at a top four seed and a double bye. El Camino’s win over Hillsdale is far better than any of most of the teams seeded ahead, but the Colts are stuck behind Westmoor in the PAL North standings.
El Camino, North Monterey County, Pajaro Valley and Westmoor have all yet to officially qualify for the postseason, though all four should be in good shape. If Overfelt gets in, there may be 18 teams for 16 spots. Del Mar is currently projected to be the BVAL West Valley champ and would therefore have a guaranteed place in the field. Greenfield has a loss to Oakwood, making Tuesday’s game a must-win in the PCAL Santa Lucia race. It’s worth noting that league champions are not guaranteed a home game, a change made in the recent years.
Projected seeds
1) Sacred Heart Cathedral
2) St. Ignatius
3) Monterey
4) Sobrato
5) Aptos
6) Soquel
7) Burlingame
8) Jefferson
9) Prospect
10) Saratoga
11) North Monterey County
12) Westmoor
Del Mar (vs. Westmoor), El Camino (vs. Prospect), Pajaro Valley (vs. North Monterey County), Live Oak (vs. Saratoga)
Division IV
As it currently stands, Division IV is one of the most straightforward divisions. Menlo is currently in the Open Division and Carmel is also in contention. While the Padres are currently not projected to make the field, that could easily change. If they don’t end up in the Open, they’re going to need to beat Palma for the top seed. As the Chieftains won the first meeting, they currently would be placed on the board in front of Carmel. The Padres would not only pass Palma with a win, but also probably jump Sacred Heart Prep. SHP could jump into the Open field over Menlo with a head-to-head win next Friday, but it would be unlikely to find a scenario in which both teams make it in. Most likely, one will make it in but not the other.
Pacific Grove’s qualification will boil down to a nonleague game against Stevenson on Feb. 18, the final night before the seeding meeting. Pacific Grove will be projected as out for now, but winning that game could create a significant domino effect. Most of the other teams still around the bubble would hold some of the bottom spots. Design Tech, Gonzales and King’s Academy have yet to officially secure eligibility, but all are in good shape. Other teams still battling to qualify include Latino College Prep, San Jose and Terra Nova. With those teams and Carmel’s status in flux, the Division IV field could be as small as 13 teams or as big as 16. Up to 18 teams have a realistic chance to make it, which would leave a couple of qualified teams out. As of now, Pacific Grove and Terra Nova are projected to miss the playoffs.
Projected seeds
1) Sacred Heart Prep
2) Palma
3) Carmel
4) Half Moon Bay
5) Santa Cruz
6) King’s Academy
7) Scotts Valley
8) Harbor
9) Monte Vista Christian
10) King City
11) Harker
12) KIPP San Jose
Design Tech (vs. KIPP San Jose), Gonzales (vs. Monte Vista Christian), Latino College Prep (vs. King City), San Jose (vs. Harker)
Division V
Division V is always tough to project, not so much because of teams with confusing wins and losses but because of the teams that often fail to post their results online. Many of the schools in Division V either played very few nonleague games or just neglected to post those scores, leaving lots of guesswork to be done. Fortunately, the teams almost all come from the PCAL, PSAL and WBAL, taking out much of the confusion. The biggest thing for the seeding committee to figure out is how to place the teams across different divisions of the PSAL.
Head-to-head results are a major factor in figuring out Division V. Crystal Springs has a win over Nueva, who has a win over Oakwood, who has a win over St. Francis SCP and will therefore be projected over the Sharks despite coming from a lower division in the PCAL.
Mountain View Academy leads the PSAL Central and would be in line for a decent seed, but the Mustangs will not be entering the playoffs as the school’s senior class trip is planned for the final week of February.
Projected seeds
1) Woodside Priory
2) Stevenson
3) Eastside
4) Pacific Bay Christian
5) Pinewood
6) Summit Shasta
7) Crystal Springs Uplands
8) Nueva
9) Oakwood
10) St. Francis SCP
11) More
12) University Prep Academy
Mid-Peninsula (vs. St. Francis SCP), Pacific Collegiate (vs. More), Summit Tahoma (vs. Oakwood), York (vs. University Prep Academy)
