The NorCal CIF Bowl Game projections that will be done each week during the six Northern Regional CIF section playoffs will almost assuredly change as the playoffs progress since upsets could occur making being accurate and keeping discussion going on these projections fluid.
This first stab at a system that even CIF Sac-Joaquin Section Director of Communications Will DeBoard admits has “a lot of moving parts” is based on analysis that does not take into account the CIF Central Coast Section playoffs, which don’t begin until next week. That makes some matchups in the wild-and-wacky West Catholic Athletic League this weekend a factor for next week’s projections.
The complete Bowl Game criteria is outlined in the Prep2Prep Understanding the new Bowl Game format story but something to remember is only CIF Section champions can advance as qualifiers for a Northern Regional Bowl Game.
The one exception is the CIF Central Coast Section which has three Open Divisions and has gotten clearance under the CIF State criteria regarding sections with an Open Division to send runners-up in two of its three divisions.
Here’s a quick summary of the big picture in Northern California. Twenty-six berths are allocated among the sections as follows:
Central Coast Section – 5
North Coast Section – 5
Northern Section – 4
Oakland Section – 1
Sac-Joaquin Section – 7
San Francisco Section – 1
*Central Section – 3
(*Central Section will also send 3 teams to the Southern California playoffs).
The top-ranked team among the 26 qualifiers will be sent directly to the state Open championship against the Southern California representative. Furthermore, the best two teams with enrollment of 1,250 or less will participate in the Open Small playoffs.
The remaining teams will be ranked from 1-23 with No. 22 taking on No. 23 in a play-in game to fill out the brackets.
One thing looks certain and that is the format adopted by the CIF-CCS is a perfect fit for the new overall system and likely will greatly benefit the West Catholic Athletic League.
(Other than the Open Division the team mentioned first is projected to host)
Open: De La Salle
If anyone other than the Spartans is chosen to go directly to Sacramento State for the 8 pm showdown on December 19 with the top team from Southern California would mean someone would have to beat De La Salle in the CIF North Coast Section playoffs – and that hasn’t happened since the 1991 large school title game which is also the last time a team from north of Fresno has stopped Sparta.
Open Small: Central Catholic vs. Marin Catholic
The Open Small NorCal Bowl Game is not No. 2 in the pecking order of the top teams competing for a Bowl Game title but once the Open Division qualifier is sent directly to Sacramento State the next decision before re-setting the placement order will be to take the two teams highest in the original order that meet the 1,250 and under enrollment criteria and placing them in the NorCal Open Small game.
At this point the overwhelming favorite for one of the two spots is Central Catholic but to qualify the No. 1 seed will have to win the CIF-SJS Division III title and that’s locking like it might be in a rematch for the crown with a second-seed Oakdale team they just edged for the Valley Oak League title.
Central Catholic is No. 28 in the MaxPreps/Calpreps power ranking and on the Bubble of the Cal-Hi Sports rankings as well as No. 17 in the Prep2Prep NorCal rankings so they are the leading contender for an Open Small berth at this point.
Other projections that use power rankings only but overlooked the 1,250 enrollment criteria have Central Catholic in another division but DeBoard of the CIF-SJS confirmed that the Raiders are in line for the Open Small placement.
Who the Raiders will play is a tossup right now between Prep2Prep NorCal 25-tied Marin Catholic-Kentfield and Palma-Salinas. We’re projecting Marin Catholic since they have an easier road to qualifying as the No. 1 seed in the CIFNCS Division IV playoffs while Palma will likely be the top seed in the CIF-CCS Open 3.
But WCAL power Riordan will be in Division 3 for sure and the Crusaders are over the 1,250 limit with 675 boys. Under our projections Palma could get in if the CIF-CCS chooses to send two teams from the Open 3 Division.
I-AA: Folsom vs. Clayton Valley-Concord
Based on the current Cal-Hi Sports rankings if both of these teams win their respective playoff divisions a rematch of the season opener where Folsom won in a 27-26 squeaker would take place.
Folsom would seem to have a much rougher road in the CIF Sac-Joaquin Section Division I with a potential matchup with Elk Grove in its path to becoming a qualifier, and if Elk Grove wins it would be the team in the slot instead of Folsom.
Clayton Valley should not be seriously challenged in the CIF North Coast Section Division II playoffs but the fact there is so much disparity in the Cal-Hi Sports rankings, where the Ugly Eagles are No. 9, and the MaxPreps/Calpreps power rankings where the Uglies are currently No. 33.
With the likes of Bellarmine, Valley Christian and St. Francis from the CIF Central Coast Section and Grant from the CIF-SJS ahead of them, that means once the 10 commissioners placing the teams use all facets of the competitive equity criteria explained in the Prep2Prep Bowl Game format story Clayton Valley could drop into the 1-A or 2-AA game .
I-A: Bellarmine-San Jose vs. Grant-Sacramento
Foothill-Pleasanton is the next highest ranked Cal-Hi Sports team at No. 14 but they are No. 37 in the MaxPreps/Calpreps rankings and De La Salle is in their path. Antioch is No. 25 and No. 24 respectively in those rankings but once again the path is blocked by Sparta.
Bellarmine is No. 17 in Cal-Hi Sports and No. 14 in the MaxPreps/Calpreps rankings and the likely No. 1 seed in the CIF Central Coast Section Open 1 playoffs. One thing is almost certain and that is if the Bells win the CCS Open 1 title they will be in this game at the least and very possibly the 1-AA game in place of Clayton Valley.
Grant is No. 26 in the MaxPreps/Calpreps rankings but in the Bubble group just outside the Top 25 in the Cal-Hi Sports rankings but knocking on the door. They were seeded No. 1 in the Sac-Joaquin Section Division II playoffs so their road does not go through Folsom or Elk Grove so it would appear the Pacers have an excellent chance of going bowling.
Both Valley Christian and St. Francis are ahead of Grant in the MaxPreps/Calpreps rankings and are with the Pacers on the Bubble in Cal-Hi Sports so Grant could conceivably drop down to 2-AA matchup with Clayton Valley if both teams are placed lower by the commissioners.
II-AA: St. Francis-Mountain View vs. Clovis
For purposes of this matchup we’re assuming Valley Christian is in the CCS Open 2 Division and loses to St. Francis. Based on the MaxPreps/Calpreps power rankings that would possibly set up a rematch in this game with Valley Christian coming in as the runner-up selection.
We don’t think the commissioners will do that. The CIF Central Section Division I has seen a lot of teams beat each other which has them knocked out of the Cal-Hi Sports rankings and down in the power rankings, but we still think the CIF-CS D1 winner is going to be given a premium spot, particularly if it’s Clovis.
At this point Clovis is the Division I top seed and St. Francis is projected as the CIF-CCS Open 2 top seed.
II-A: Valley Christian-San Jose vs. Archbishop Riordan-San Francisco
Valley Christian is the projected runner-up to St. Francis in CIF-CCS Open 2 playoffs and has a higher power ranking than teams we have placed above them, but in our opinion the commissioners are not going to let a computer that rates the West Catholic Athletic League so high dictate stacking all the qualifiers, and particularly runners up, in the top two non-Open divisions.
What would seem fair would be to pair a Riordan team we project to beat Palma in the CCS Open 3 Division with the Valley Christian team that pulled out a 45-27 WCAL win over the Crusaders with three fourth-quarter touchdowns.
III-AA: Pleasant Valley-Chico vs. Milpitas
Pleasant Valley is the projected winner of the CIF Northern Section Division II playoffs (which is the CIFNS highest division) and looks like they will be hosting a game up north.
Milpitas is the projected CIF-CCS Open 1 runner up and although its CCS power ranking is lower than projected Open 3 runner-up Palma-Salinas, its MaxPreps/Calpreps power ranking is higher and the Trojans are ahead of Palma in every other rankings as well. Palma could be sent but somehow we feel the CCS will send Milpitas as a qualifier in that scenario.
III-A: Campolindo vs. Hanford
Campolindo should not have any problems winning the CIF-NCS Division III title which will make the Cougars Bowl bound but where they fall in the placement could depend a lot on the CIF-CCS playoffs. It also depends on what Riordan and Valley Christian do this week before they begin the section playoffs, and what Milpitas does from here out.
Hanford is the top seed and projected winner of the Central Section Division III playoffs which qualifies them in the North since Divisions I, III and V from the CIF-CS are playing in the Northern Regional Bowl Games.
IV-AA: Capital Christian-Sacramento vs. McClymonds
Capital Christian is the No. 2 seed in the CIF-SJS Division V playoffs but we like them better than No. 1 seed Sonora based on our assessment of their strength of schedule.
McClymonds could qualify for the Open Small game but Marin Catholic would have to lose to a team lower in the power rankings than Mack, which is not likely. The result is it looks like the Warriors are heading to the state capitol in what should be an interesting matchup.
IV-A: Lathrop vs. Lassen-Susanville
Despite a 6-4 record, Lathrop is the top seed in the CIF-SJS Division IV playoffs by virtue playing one of the toughest schedules for a small school in NorCal and a 4-3 record in the Valley Oak League.
Lassen has a lower power ranking than Orland but we agree with the CIF-NS seeding which has them at No. 1 in Division III and Orland as the second seed. Lassen has four losses to open the season but they were all against larger schools and since then they’ve won six straight.
V-AA: Berean Christian-Walnut Creek vs. Immanuel-Reedley
Berean Christian is the top seed in the NCS Division V playoffs and looks like the winner, but after a bye it looks like they could very well face the Cloverdale team that handed them their only loss of the season, 28-24 on the road in game one.
Immanuel from south of Fresno will also have a bye but they are coming off a 48-34 home loss to CIF-CS Division IV top seed Central Valley Christian-Visalia. If the Reedley boys can get through the bracket it looks like they’re making a trip to the Bay Area.
V-A: Hilmar vs. Winters
Hilmar is the top seed in the CIF-SJS Division VI playoffs and we’re going to go with them although we foresee a possible upset in the finals against No. 2 seed Bradshaw Christian-Sacramento
The Northern Section Division IV winner is slated to be placed in this slot and at this time it’s looking like top-seeded Winters and its two close losses to slightly larger schools from outside the section.
VI-AA: Fall River vs. Mission
Fall River and its father-son combination at coach and quarterback will get the automatic placement in this division if the CIF-NS No. 2 seed can beat top-seeded Portola.
If Mission wins the CIF San Francisco Section on Thanksgiving Day they will be in the play-in game and will likely face CIF-SJS Division VII top-seeded Stone Ridge Christian-Merced on the road.
