This first stab at the Southern California CIF Bowl Game projections that will be done each week during the four Southern Regional CIF section playoffs will almost assuredly change as the playoffs progress since upsets could occur making being accurate and keeping discussion going on these projections fluid.
The complete Bowl Game criteria is outlined in the Prep2Prep Understanding the new Bowl Game format story but something to remember is only CIF Section champions can advance as qualifiers for a Southern Regional Bowl Game except in Sections that have an Open Division and want to send a runner-up as a qualifier.
Unlike in Northern California where the CIF Central Coast Section adopted a format in which three Open Division winners and two runners-up are being sent as qualifiers, the CIF San Diego Section voted against sending its Open Division runner up.
Here’s a quick summary of the big picture in Southern California. Twenty-five berths are allocated among the sections as follows:
Los Angeles City Section – 3
San Diego Section – 6
Southern Section – 13
*Central Section – 3
(*Central Section will also send 3 teams to the Northern California playoffs).
The top-ranked team among the 25 qualifiers will be sent directly to the state Open championship against the Northern California representative. Furthermore, the best two teams with enrollment of 1,250 or less will participate in the Open Small playoffs.
The remaining teams will be ranked from 1-22 to fill out the rest of the brackets from I-AA all the way down to VI-AA.
(Other than the Open Division the team mentioned first is projected to host)
Open: Centennial
The MaxPreps/Calpreps computer power rankings have CIF Southern Section Pac-5 No. 2 seed St. John Bosco as the projected qualifier to go directly to the 8 pm game December 19 at Sacramento State to likely face De La Salle for the Open Division title, but we are going to stick with the top seed and defending Pac-5 champions until someone in the Pac-5 knocks them off.
Open Small: Sierra Canyon-Chatsworth vs. Central Valley Christian-Visalia
The Open Small Bowl Game is not the second-strongest division by any stretch but we’re putting it second in the projections because once the Open Division qualifier is sent directly to Sacramento State the next decision before re-setting the placement order will be to take the two teams highest in the original order that meet the 1,250 and under enrollment criteria and placing them in the Southern California Open Small game
Sierra Canyon not only has one heck of a basketball team that will be the marquee squad at the Prep2Prep Tip-Off Classic on November 28 in the Bay Area at Newark Memorial, they have the top small school football team in Southern California.
The Trailblazers have been the No. 1 team in the state in the Cal-Hi Sports Division IV rankings since week one and it’s doubtful anyone in the CIF Southern Section Mid Valley Division can take them down, although No. 2 seed Paraclete-Lancaster gave them a game last week before falling at home 48-34.
The way the MaxPreps/Calpreps power rankings look and because teams in the CIF-SS will knock each other out the second qualifier looks like it will come from the CIF Central Section Division IV playoffs. The power rankings have No. 4 seed Chowchilla slated for the spot but we like the CIF-CS seeding that has Central Valley Christian as the top seed.
I-AA: Mission Viejo vs. Mission Hills-San Marcos
It looks like after all these years and 324 career coaching wins going into the CIF Southern Section West Valley Division playoffs this Friday night that veteran Coach Bob Johnson is finally going to get a chance to compete for a state title. His Diablos are the top seed and while No. 2 seed Vista Murrieta has had a solid season they don’t appear to be anywhere near as strong as Mission Viejo. The rest of the field does not look like it can challenge Johnson and his boys.
The power rankings have Camarillo as the team to face Mission Viejo at No. 11 in the state (Cal-Hi Sports No. 19) but despite the power rankings having them at No. 30 we like Cal-Hi Sports No. 10 Mission Hills if they get past Helix-La Mesa in the CIF San Diego Section Open Division.
Helix is ranked No. 12 by both Cal-Hi Sports and the MaxPreps/Calpreps rankings and a win over them should be enough to sway the committee to place them in the highest non-Open division. If Camarillo wins the CIF-SS Northern Division, which isn’t a given, they won’t have beaten anyone as tough as Helix.
I-A: Camarillo vs. Narbonne-Harbor City
Once again the power rankings say this game should be Helix and La Habra with Camarillo in 1-AA but we don’t see the commissioners placing the teams by stacking all the top divisions with Southern Section teams.
Camarillo’s power ranking was already laid out, but even though Narbonne might be lowest of the bunch in the power rankings at No. 41 the Gauchos are ahead of all three previously mentioned teams at No. 16 in the Cal-Hi Sports rankings - although a 41-40 OT loss to a Serra-Gardena team just upset by Chaminade-West Hills put a slight sent in their power ranking.
We also think the commissioners will want to put a team from the Los Angeles City Section in a premium game and Narbonne is going to be that team.
Camarillo, as previously stated, is no cinch and could very well go down to a Northern Division No. 2 seed Arroyo Grande team that suffered its only defeat in a 27-13 loss to Camarillo on 9/11.
II-AA: La Habra vs. Ridgeview-Bakersfield
Once again we disagree with the computer rankings. They say this game should be Redlands East Valley and Narbonne with La Habra in 1-A but we’ve already dropped La Habra down in favor of Narbonne based on the blended criteria the commissioners will use. Also, we’re elevating Cal-Hi Sports No. 22 and CIF Central Section Division II top-seeded Ridgeview despite a power ranking lower than the Redlands boys.
Cal-Hi Sports No. 21 La Habra would appear to have an easy bracket as the No.1 seed in the CIF-SS Southwest Division but over the years strange things have happened in this division made up of all Orange County schools.
We also think the commissioners are going to want to get another Central Section team in a premium game so things are spread around.
II-A: Redlands East Valley vs. Calabasas
As previously stated the power rankings have Redlands East Valley in the II-AA game and the commissioners may very well place them there and drop Ridgeview, particularly since East Valley has a win over the Chaminade team that just upset Serra-Gardena.
However, if we just used the power rankings there would be no need to do predictions and we’re positive the computer is not going to be the sole criteria based on what is stated on the CIF State web site. Plus, by the time placements are done, there will upsets and changes in the power rankings. We’re going with the Redlands boys but we see a possibility of an upset of an only No. 6 seed by CIF-SS Inland Division No. 1 seed Heritage-Menifee.
As for Calabasas they are next in line in the computer’s pecking order albeit only slightly ahead of Charter Oak-Covina as we enter the playoffs. They are the No. 1 seed in the CIF-SS Western Division and based on how they’ve been playing are a strong favorite to win that title.
III-AA: Charter Oak-Covina vs. Palm Springs
Computer says Charter Oak and Rancho Bernardo-San Diego. Maybe so but we like a Palm Springs team that is the No. 1 seed in the CIF-SS Eastern Division and is seeded higher than the No. 2 seed Serrano Phelan team ticketed for III-A based on the power rankings.
We also aren’t convinced Rancho Bernardo is a lock to win the CIF San Diego Section Division II title since they aren’t even the top seed.
III-A: Valhalla-El Cajon vs. La Mirada
The computer has Serrano-Phelan and La Mirada but we already have Serrano knocked out by Palm Springs and we like San Diego Section Division II top-seeded Valhalla over Rancho Bernardo in the Division II playoffs.
Valhalla is higher in the computer power rankings right now so if this matchup were to take place the game would be in East San Diego County.
IV-AA: Bonita Vista vs. Oceanside
It’s hard to argue with the computer here as Bonita Vista and Oceanside fall into this slot based on the power rankings and it makes sense as well since the matchup of CIF San Diego Section Division III top seeded Bonita Vista and Division I No. 1 seed levels accomplishes several things.
It meets the criteria, levels the playing field with some other sections since the CIF-SDS has six qualifiers, guarantees that the section will have a team in the big dance and creates a huge local matchup with teams in the second tier this year of the area but from the far north and far south ends of the county.
Oceanside is down this year but by avoiding the Open Division, the Pirates may get a chance to bowl again after a disaster last year.
IV-A: Notre Dame-Riverside vs. Garden Grove
The computer says Canyon-Anaheim should be hosting this game but the CIF-SS only saw fit to seed that team No. 10 in the Southern Division showing just how much disparity there is in how the various sections that have a “competitive equity” portion of their criteria apply it to placing/seeding teams. They did win their playoff opener in the only Thursday game played in the CIF-SS 13 divisions but we are still not going with Canyon.
Our selection is Southern Division top-seeded Garden Grove facing Notre Dame, the top seed in the CIF-SS Northwest Division and the next team in the current computer power rankings pecking order.
V-AA: Los Angeles vs. Mater Dei-Chula Vista
Hard to argue here with the next two teams in the power rankings as the Olympic Boulevard Romans of Los Angeles are the top seed in the LA City Section Division II playoffs and Mater Dei is the top seed in the CIF San Diego Section Division IV bracket and clearly is the class of that field.
V-A: Grace Brethren-Simi Valley vs. Belmont-Los Angeles
Saddleback Valley Christian-San Juan Capistrano is the next team in the power rankings but they are in the same CIF-SS East Valley Division as Grace Brethren, which not only is the top seed with the Orange County boys seeded second but Grace Brethren is the Cal-Hi Sports No. 1 team in its Division V rankings and has been all season. They have a win by forfeit and we’re not sure if that hurts their computer rating but the Simi Valley boys are our choice.
Belmont is the top seed in the LA City Section Division III bracket which uses strictly MaxPreps rankings over a two-year period to seed its 24 teams in its three playoff divisions.
VI-AA: La Jolla Country Day vs. Kennedy-Delano
Unlike in the North where there is a play-in game for one of the 6AA slots at this point in the South there’s only two spots left and they belong to Division V in the San Diego Section and Division VI in the Central Section.
La Jolla Country Day is next in the power rankings but is only the No. 3 seed with the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds Coronado and Crawford-San Diego respectively. We agree with the computer because of a 52-42 loss to a La Jolla team that beat Coronado 29-7, and a 42-14 win over Crawford.
Kennedy is the No. 1 seed in the CIF-CS D6 playoffs and appears to have the best resume since its three losses were to larger schools with only one real blowout to cross-town Chavez, which is the No. 2 seed in the CIF-CS Division IV bracket.
