This week, we start the ‘way-too-early’ weekly process of identifying our projected seeds for the North Coast Section playoffs. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we will rank teams accordingly each week, and discuss the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
We start the process this week by seeding the top eight teams in each division, rather than the full 16. These are the teams that would be in line for a home game in the first round, and we will expand this list to a full 16 in the next couple weeks as more results make it more logical to sort out all schools. We do include teams on the bubble of the top eight in the rationale section for each division this week.
OPEN
Projected four teams:
1. De La Salle
2. Liberty/Antioch
3. Antioch/Liberty
4. Clayton Valley
Rationale: This much is clear – after falling to Antioch in its non-league game, Clayton Valley will be rooting for Pittsburg to run the table in the BVAL, and for Liberty to also beat Antioch and knock the Panthers out of Open contention. If that were to happen, then the Ugly Eagles could make a legitimate case for the two seed. If Antioch runs the table in league play, a Pittsburg win over Liberty would then knock the Lions out of contention and likely move Clayton Valley up to the three seed. The worst case scenario for Clayton Valley is a Liberty-Antioch one-two finish in the BVAL.
Who else is looking in closely? Well, Pittsburg of course, and the Pirates will get in here if they win the BVAL. O’Dowd is also in contention, though the committee might hesitate due to the Dragons’ one-sided loss to De La Salle, and might want to avoid a rematch there. Other sleeper teams could include a one-loss California team (loss to Antioch), if the Grizzlies beat everyone else except De La Salle on their remaining schedule, and Rancho Cotate, if the Cougars beat Cardinal Newman and go undefeated. Despite only a one-point loss to O’Dowd so far, Monte Vista is off the bubble for the moment, considering the Mustangs still have De La Salle remaining, but they are very much in the same position as California right now.
Who else can really mess with this? How about Freedom, who has a loss to California, but has the talent to knock off any of the three aforementioned BVAL teams during league play.
DIVISION I
Projected top eight:
1. Pittsburg
2. Monte Vista
3. California
4. Freedom
5. Amador Valley
6. San Ramon Valley
7. San Leandro
8. Dublin
Rationale: The third-place team in the BVAL will likely be the top seed in this division, and we certainly aren’t saying this will be Pittsburg, but rather placing the Pirates there right now due to the season-opening loss to Clayton Valley, who lost to Antioch, and you get the picture. Monte Vista is in line for a top seed right now, though the game against California will ultimately determine where those teams get seeded.
California’s win over Freedom has the Grizzlies ahead of the Falcons right now, and the same goes for Freedom’s win over San Ramon Valley. The debate between Amador Valley, San Ramon Valley, and Dublin will be an interesting one, and one which will get a lot cleaner once more common opponents are in the mix. San Leandro has a solid win over Foothill, and competitive losses to three higher-ranked teams.
Teams on the bubble of the top eight include Vintage-Napa and James Logan, which will likely finish second in the MVAL. Vintage could move higher by winning the VVAL.
DIVISION II
Projected top eight:
1. Bishop O’Dowd
2. Rancho Cotate
3. Granada
4. Campolindo
5. Marin Catholic
6. Ukiah
7. Benicia
8. Maria Carrillo
Rationale: O’Dowd’s win over Monte Vista gives it something no one else in the division has right now – a big-time win over a top-notch Division I opponent. Rancho Cotate has a couple hurdles ahead in the NBL-Oak, notably Cardinal Newman and Ukiah, but the Cougars’ win over Campolindo has them looking good right now.
Granada has solid wins over Foothill and Manteca, the latter of which could look really good by season’s end, while Campolindo has the head-to-head advantage over Marin Catholic. Benicia has a head-to-head win over Maria Carrillo, who just notched a quality win over Santa Rosa.
Teams on the bubble of the top eight right now include Santa Rosa, Alhambra, and Redwood. Redwood’s win over Tamalpais has the Giants positioned for a possible title run in the MCAL, while Santa Rosa has a big win over Windsor, and Alhambra just got a quality win over Livermore.
DIVISION III
Projected top eight:
1. Cardinal Newman
2. Eureka
3. Las Lomas
4. El Cerrito
5. Acalanes
6. Pinole Valley
7. Miramonte
8. De Anza
Rationale: Despite a recent loss to Liberty, Cardinal Newman will present a strong resume for the top seed, especially if the Cardinals beat Rancho Cotate and win the NBL-Oak. Eureka and Las Lomas are both favorites to go 10-0 in the regular season, and deciding between these two could be a tough decision. Las Lomas does have four wins in non-league play over teams from the DAL-Foothill, but Eureka has had an equally strong non-league slate and could boost its resume with a win over Fortuna.
El Cerrito has the head-to-head advantage over Acalanes, who has close losses to both Las Lomas and the Gauchos, plus a win over Vintage. The biggest challenge for Acalanes might just be getting playoff eligible, as the Dons need to go 3-2 in DAL-Foothill play in order to qualify for the post-season, meaning their game against Miramonte could ultimately decide that fate.
Pinole Valley is unbeaten, and a strong bet to remain that way through the regular season, while also boasting wins over Benicia and Alhambra. Miramonte is still seeking its first real quality win, while De Anza’s win over Encinal could have the Dons positioned to grab a top eight seed.
Teams on the bubble of the top eight right now include Encinal, Tennyson, Alameda, and Tamalpais.
DIVISION IV
Projected top eight:
1. Moreau Catholic
2. Fortuna
3. Kennedy-Richmond
4. St. Bernard’s
5. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
6. Del Norte
7. San Marin
8. Piedmont
Rationale: Moreau Catholic is a likely bet to go 10-0 in the regular season after its convincing win over James Logan, and the Mariners also have wins over St. Patrick-St. Vincent, San Marin, and Middletown. After that, it gets murky.
St. Bernard’s and Fortuna will decide their own pecking order through head-to-head in the HDN-Big 4, and the same goes for Kennedy and St. Pat’s. For now, Fortuna’s win over Logan and Kennedy’s win over Deer Valley are influencing factors. Del Norte is unbeaten right now, but does not have any quality wins and has a tough slate in league play.
San Marin would be projected higher, with a close loss to Moreau Catholic, but the recent loss to Terra Linda has some impact at this point. Piedmont just suffered its first loss of the season, to Lincoln-SF, but does have wins over Menlo and Justin-Siena.
Teams on the bubble of the top eight include Justin-Siena, Saint Mary’s, Lower Lake, and Drake.
DIVISION V
Projected top eight:
1. Middletown
2. Stellar Prep
3. Kelseyville
4. Cloverdale
5. St. Helena
6. California School for the Deaf
7. St. Vincent DePaul
8. Ferndale
Rationale: Middletown’s only loss was a competitive one to Moreau Catholic, which leaves the Mustangs in the driver’s seat for the top seed.
Stellar Prep is just 1-3, but has already clinched playoff eligibility by securing a winning record against Division V teams, and that one win is against Kelseyville. Keep an eye on Cloverdale, meanwhile, who has wins over Sonoma Valley and Fort Bragg already, and could potentially move in front of Stellar Prep if the Eagles keep winning.
Kelseyville has wins over St. Helena and Berean Christian, while St. Helena has a win over a much improved Drake squad. CSD is unbeaten, but with a low strength of schedule, and St. Vincent just lost to Burton, while also holding a low strength of schedule rating.
Ferndale needs to win the HDN-Little 4 in order to get a top eight seed, with teams such as Arcata, Hoopa Valley, and McKinleyville all seemingly in the mix for that division title.
Teams on the bubble of the top eight include Hoopa Valley, Clear Lake, and Arcata.
