With just over a week remaining in the regular season, we are releasing our North Coast Section boys soccer playoff projections. We project all 16 teams in each division, as long as it appears that many will qualify, and give our rationale for the projected seeding, following section seeding guidelines.
All records are as of Saturday morning, and the assumption is that all eligible teams will apply unless known otherwise.
DIVISION I
Projected seeds:
1. Montgomery – 18-0-0
2. San Ramon Valley – 18-2-1
3. De La Salle – 17-1-1
4. Vintage – 14-3
5. Clayton Valley Charter – 16-1-3
6. Berkeley – 12-3-4
7. Monte Vista – 10-4-4
8. Castro Valley – 13-7-1
9. Pittsburg - 12-5-4
10. Freedom – 13-3-5
11. Napa – 12-7-1
12. San Leandro – 14-5-2
13. Foothill – 10-6-3
14. California – 9-6-5
15. James Logan – 10-8-4
16. Richmond – 8-8-4
Rationale:
Division I should be the easiest division to seed, especially the top seven seeds. The only potential change that we could see could happen if De La Salle beats San Ramon Valley on Tuesday, in which case the Wolves could drop to four or five based on an earlier loss to Vintage.
After that, however, it could get tricky. Either Pittsburg or Freedom will win the BVAL, but both have losses to Castro Valley, giving the Trojans the inside track to the eight seed, though that means a potential quarterfinal date with unbeaten Montgomery.
11 through 14 could go in various orders, though Foothill’s win over California has the Falcons ahead of the Grizzlies for now, but they meet again this coming week.
DIVISION II
Projected seeds:
1. Las Lomas – 18-1-1
2. Tamalpais – 11-3-3
3. Redwood – 11-4-3
4. Maria Carrillo – 12-3-3
5. Bethel – 13-1-2
6. Vallejo – 15-3-4
7. Mt. Eden – 10-6-5
8. Northgate – 7-5-4
9. Windsor – 10-5-3
10. Newark Memorial – 13-7-1
11. Bishop O’Dowd – 10-6-1
12. Antioch – 12-7-1
13. Casa Grande – 9-5-1
14. Concord – 9-9-1
15. American – 8-5-3
16. Alameda – 6-8-4
Rationale:
The top seed here is solid, with Las Lomas leading the DAL after beating Acalanes this week. The two seed could very well come down to who wins the MCAL tournament, as there is little to separate Tam and Redwood heading into this coming week, and the winner of that league tourney will deserve the higher seed, or at least which of these teams finishes higher in the tournament.
There is little to help decide between Maria Carrillo and Bethel, but Maria’s wins over Piner, Benicia and most recently Cardinal Newman could do the trick. Bethel won the season series over Vallejo, though a different result in the TCAL-Stone tourney could flip those seedings.
Mt. Eden has solid non-league wins over Windsor and Antioch, plus the Monarchs swept the season series with Bishop O’Dowd. Northgate also has a non-league win over Windsor, plus a strong strength of schedule. Newark will likely go unbeaten in the MVAL, but has little in the way of non-league results to support a higher seed, with wins over Livermore and Granada as the best on their slate.
There will be little to separate Antioch and O’Dowd, though the Panthers have a quality win over Concord, but O’Dowd played a more difficult schedule, including a quality non-league win over Mission.
DIVISION III
Projected seeds:
1. Acalanes – 12-3-3
2. Piner – 10-2-4
3. Ygnacio Valley – 10-4-3
4. Terra Linda – 11-2-3
5. Marin Academy – 7-6-2
6. University – 11-7-1
7. De Anza – 13-4-3
8. Albany – 10-3-3
9. Miramonte – 9-5-2
10. San Rafael – 9-6-3
11. Drake – 8-7-4
12. Kennedy-Fremont – 9-6-2
13. Analy – 13-4-1
14. Sonoma Valley – 5-5-2
15. Elsie Allen – 4-4-4
16. Rancho Cotate – 6-7-2
Rationale:
Acalanes has one bad loss on its resume, to Dougherty Valley, but a plethora of quality wins and sits near the top of the one of the most competitive leagues in the section. Acalanes and Ygnacio Valley tied head-to-head, but the Dons are ahead in the league standings thanks to beating Benicia, while the Warriors lost to the Panthers.
Piner has quality wins over Marin Academy and Cardinal Newman, while both losses are to elite programs in Montgomery and Maria Carrillo. Ygnacio Valley also has a big non-league win over Marin Academy and a huge league win over DAL leader Las Lomas, which just handed Acalanes its first league loss. The loss to Benicia, however, could keep them behind Piner.
Terra Linda could still make an argument for any of the top three seeds, though recent losses to San Rafael and Marin Catholic have put that in jeopardy, as those losses are worse than anything on the slate of the three teams listed above. Marin Academy played a brutal non-league schedule, but it did include a win over Bishop O’Dowd and a draw with St. Ignatius, plus the Wildcats won the season series against University, which has quality non-league wins over Newark Memorial and Napa.
The debate for the seven through 13 seeds could be a lengthy one. Consider that Analy has a split with Maria Carrillo, and swept the season series from Cardinal Newman, but was also swept by El Molino, who will likely fail to qualify for the post-season in Division IV. There is very little to separate these seven programs right now, who all have quality wins and suspect losses.
The bottom three seeds are likely set thanks to Elsie Allen’s win over Rancho Cotate, though Sonoma Valley could potentially go higher after splitting the season series with Napa and beating El Molino, though the Dragons lost head-to-head to Analy, so they need to hope that Analy’s overall record gets the Tigers a higher seed.
DIVISION IV
Projected seeds:
1. Cardinal Newman – 14-6-2
2. Kennedy-Richmond – 12-7-3
3. Saint Mary’s-Albany – 7-5-2
4. Marin Catholic – 9-7-1
5. Berean Christian – 4-4-4
6. Lick-Wilmerding – 6-4-2
7. Urban – 8-7-2
8. Piedmont – 6-6-2
9. Roseland Prep – 6-7-3
Rationale:
First of all, we only list nine schools because those are the only ones at .500 or better either overall or in league play. Second, there is no clear-cut top seed in this division. Cardinal Newman gets the nod right now based on wins over Kennedy, Urban and Roseland, though the Cardinals also have a loss to Lick-Wilmerding. Likewise, Kennedy has a pair of wins over Saint Mary’s, while playing in the difficult TCAL-Rock Division. Saint Mary’s has impressive non-league wins over Napa and Albany.
Marin Catholic also plays in a tough league and has notched wins over San Rafael, Drake and Terra Linda, splitting the season series with those latter two schools. Berean Christian’s best result is a draw with Clayton Valley, which is better than Piedmont’s draw with Cardinal Newman, and the top victory is against Concord, while all losses are to quality opponents from higher divisions, much like Piedmont. Draws against Northgate and College Park could also be considered quality results for a Division IV program.
Lick-Wilmerding could make the case for a stronger seed based on the win over Cardinal Newman, but the Tigers also dropped the season series to Urban and have a tie against Roseland.
Urban’s win and a tie against Lick are good for the Blues, but they are also behind Lick in the BCL standings and have losses to Cardinal Newman and Roseland. Piedmont has a solid draw with Cardinal Newman and win over Mt. Eden, and played a quality schedule, but no other distinguishing victories. The Highlanders could, however, make the case for the seven seed.
Roseland is below .500 right now overall and in league, but appears to be a game over .500 against division opponents, which would also qualify them. That could change, however, with games against Cardinal Newman and El Molino. Split those games and they should be in the field. Drop both and they are out. Tie one of them and they are in as well.
