Prep2Prep CCS Playoff Projections
THROUGH WEEK 8
The picture in the Open Division is becoming more clear as teams begin to separate from the pack. For instance, Palma went from not making the Open Division field to being the No. 1
seed this week after defeating Salinas. Milpitas hosts Los Gatos Halloween night in another game with huge Open Division implications.
The goal is to present brackets for all five divisions - Open, Division I, II, III and IV - assuming the season ended this past weekend.
We will continue to update these projections on a weekly basis.
As is usually the case, several assumptions need to be made. For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click
here. An important point to note is that while
there is no .500 requirement as in other sports, no more than six teams can qualify for the playoffs from the same division.
ASSUMPTION 1: in the case of ties to determine automatic qualifiers, we went with the team with the higher CCS point total except in a few
cases noted below.
ASSUMPTION 2: for non-CCS teams, we projected their win total based on their current record to determine their classification (A, B, C).
ASSUMPTION 3: games that have not yet been played are included in the point totals (and counted as losses).
NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.
OPEN DIVISION: The five winners of the "A" and "A+" leagues are automatically placed in the Open Division. The
remaining three teams in the Open bracket are comprised of the top three CCS point-getters among "A" and "A+" league teams. The top
four division winners by CCS point total are awarded the top 4 seeds, so it is not possible for two teams from the same division to be
seeded in the top 4.
In the first round, teams from the same division cannot face each other, so seedings are adjusted to avoid such
first-round matchups. For instance, if teams from the WCAL are seeded second and seventh, then the seventh-seeded team will drop down to
No. 8 and face the No. 1 seed.
The Monterey Bay League-Gabilan Division and the West Catholic Athletic League are the only "A" leagues with exactly one unbeaten team. However,
even those races are not yet decided as Palma takes on Monterey in another monster matchup this week and Serra still has to face one-loss Bellarmine,
not to mention a very tough assignment at Foothill College Friday night against Mitty.
Burlingame (3-0) still holds an edge over Sacred Heart Prep (2-0) by virtue of the additional game played in the PAL-Bay Division. Los Gatos (3-0) and
Milpitas (3-0) are tied atop the SCVAL-De Anza and match up Friday night in Milpitas. The Wildcats own the tiebreaker for now because they have a higher
CCS point total.
The point totals in the Open Division are extremely tight - just 2.75 points separate the No. 1 and No. 8 seeds - so there is still a lot of potential
for seed movement.
DIVISION I: Automatic bids are awarded to the top two finishers in all divisions and, as mentioned earlier, no more than
six teams can qualify from the same division.
The remaining bids are awarded to the highest CCS point totals. once the 32 teams are established, they are ranked according to enrollment,
with the top eight enrollments placed in Division I, the next eight in Division II and so on through Division IV.
With Milpitas projected back into the Open Division, Division I is looking like an MBL-Gabilan block party. The top three seeds come from
the MBL-Gabilan: Alvarez (21 points), San Benito (19) and Salinas (18.5).
The Balers needed - and got - their first league win, making them eligible to join the party.
The BVAL-Santa Teresa "B" Division is currently
projected to place three teams in the CCS field, including Silver Creek, which would assuredly be in Division I if it qualifies.
Menlo-Atherton (2,082) and Fremont (1,996) are the lowest enrollment schools in Division I so they are potential candidates to land in Division II.
DIVISION II:
Depending on how some of the "A" league races play out, Division II appears to be loaded. Right now, St. Francis and Mitty are on the outside looking
in on the Open Division race, though we expect at least one of the teams to force their way to the Open. Los Gatos is in the Open Division field at the moment,
but if the Wildcats lose at Milpitas, they would end up on the Open bubble assuming they win the rest of their games. Otherwise, they would probably land in Division
II.
In the BVAL-Mount Hamilton, Oak Grove has shaken off an 0-3 start and is now tied for first at 4-0 in the division, 3-3 overall. Right now, we are projecting
three teams from the BVAL-MH with the Eagles joining Leland and Willow Glen.
We had to move Palo Alto from No. 8 up to No. 6 to avoid an all BVAL-MH first-round matchup (Oak Grove-Leland). As a result, Leland and Willow Glen slide down a spot.
Palo Alto (1,941), Wilcox (1,921) and Oak Grove (1,920) are the highest enrollment schools in Division II so they could find themselves in Division I. Similarly,
Willow Glen (1,659) is the smallest enrollment school and could find itself landing in Division III.
DIVISION III:
St. Ignatius and Monterey would be the clear favorites in Division III assuming the Toreadores hold in Division III, which we expect. Of course, Monterey
could shake things up with a win over Palma this weekend.
Westmont (1,570) is the highest enrollment school in Division III and Monterey (1,242) is the lowest.
DIVISION IV:
Sacred Heart Prep is currently projected as the No. 1 seed in Division IV, but the undefeated Gators are still strong contenders for the PAL-Bay crown and a
trip to the Open Division playoffs.
Live Oak (1,120) is the highest enrollment school in Division IV. The Acorns pushed their way into the field with a 6-0 win over Westmont to take over first place
in the BVAL-Santa Teresa Division.
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