We are less than a week away from the AIA postseason bracket show, which begins Saturday morning at 9 a.m. So, this is the last time the matchups are speculation.
Below is the latest edition of the state playoff matchups as of Oct. 25 for Divisions 6A through 4A.
6A DIVISION
Highland is in, Horizon is out (falling from No. 15 to 19 after losing to Boulder Canyon), but the majority of 6A remained static. Of course, there was some shuffling around the top 10 after Hamilton lost and Skyline won again, but the most major change was Desert Ridge falling from potentially hosting as a top 5 team to traveling to Westview in round one as a No. 9. The big shakeup could come in five days if Cibola beats Tucson at home and thus knocks out the No. 13 team and likely replaces No. 16 Corona del Sol.
No. 1 Mountain Pointe (9-0) vs. No. 16 Corona del Sol (4-5)
No. 2 Chandler (7-2) vs. No. 15 Highland (3-6)
No. 3 Perry (8-1) vs. No. 14 Valley Vista (6-3)
No. 4 Skyline (8-1) vs. No. 13 Tucson (5-4)
No. 5 Brophy Prep (7-3) vs. No. 12 Pinnacle (5-5)
No. 6 Hamilton (6-3) vs. No. 11 Red Mountain (5-4)
No. 7 Mesa Mountain View (6-3) vs. No. 10 Desert Vista (5-4)
No. 8 Westview (7-2) vs. No. 9 Desert Ridge (6-3)
5A DIVISION
To likely no fault of its own, Desert Edge is now ranked second after spending the duration of the last month in the top slot. They are still 9-0, and by most accounts still the favorite to win the state title in 5A. They’ll get an extra day of rest in their pursuit of back-to-back titles as they play Verrado this week on Thursday, a game that should also help boost their AIA rating. The division as a whole remained the same in terms of its 16 playoff teams with no team jumping more than two spots and three scenarios in which teams like Marana Mountain View and Mesquite flipped.
No. 1 Cienega (9-0) vs. No. 16 Deer Valley (5-4)
No. 2 Desert Edge (9-0) vs. No. 15 Sunnyslope (6-3)
No. 3 Williams Field (9-0) vs. No. 14 Flowing Wells (5-4)
No. 4 Queen Creek (8-1) vs. No. 13 Campo Verde (7-2)
No. 5 Ironwood Ridge (7-2) vs. No. 12 Liberty (7-2)
No. 6 Centennial (8-1) vs. No. 11 Desert View (7-2)
No. 7 Marana (7-2) vs. No. 10 Kellis (8-1)
No. 8 Marana Mountain View (7-2) vs. No. 9 Mesquite (6-3)
4A DIVISION
Catalina Foothills’ 34-7 loss to Salpointe Catholic last week had big repercussions. The Falcons slid down to No. 6 and were jumped by the Lancers despite having the same 7-2 record. Arguably, 6-3 Marcos de Niza benefitted most. The upset allowed them to slide into the No. 4 spot. On the opposite end of the bracket, St. Mary’s keeps losing but remain in the field. They slid from No. 14 to No. 15 and look like they’re close to a lock with a nearly two-point rating advantage over No. 17 Prescott.
No. 1 Saguaro (9-0) vs. No. 16 Casa Grande (5-4)
No. 2 Higley (8-1) vs. No. 15 St. Mary’s (3-6)
No. 3 Sunrise Mountain (8-1) vs. No. 14 Buckeye Union (7-2)
No. 4 Marcos de Niza (6-3) vs. No. 13 Mingus Union (6-3)
No. 5 Salpointe Catholic (7-2) vs. No. 12 Canyon del Oro (6-3)
No. 6 Catalina Foothills (7-2) vs. No. 11 Dysart (8-1)
No. 7 Cactus (5-4) vs. No. 10 Cactus Shadows (6-3)
No. 8 Peoria (6-3) vs. No. 9 Bradshaw Mountain (7-2)
QUALIFICATIONS
The seeds, ranking each school in each division, are based on an algorithm utilizing statistical mathematics found in the 2005 research paper by Roy Bethel entitled: “A Solution to the Unequal Strength of Schedule Problem.” MaxPreps developed the algorithm for high school sports nationwide and the state tweaked it to be “retrodictive,” meaning it focuses solely on games in the past and does not attempt to predict the results for games remaining on the schedule. Each team is assigned a rating value, which then translates to the playoff seed.
Football playoffs begin Friday, Nov. 4 and are played within four rounds of a single elimination, 16-team bracket in Divisions 6A to 2A. In order to qualify, teams must have scheduled a minimum of eight games and the top team in each region is given an automatic bid. Note: The automatic bid in the 6A Southern will be the winner of the No. 1 Tucson division team, which was clinched last week by Tucson Magnet, vs. the No. 1 Yuma division team, which will be Cibola after their head-to-head win over Kofa on Oct. 14. The state tournament bracket will be seeded according to overall ranking of the 16 teams.
