Our second installment of the boys basketball playoff projections breaks down exactly which teams should be in the field, which teams are likely in with some work to do, and which teams are fighting to get off the bubble, along with what they need to do in order to become eligible or gain a higher seed. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we have ranked the teams accordingly, and discussed the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
DIVISION I
Eligible: De La Salle, Dublin, Heritage, James Logan, San Leandro, Clayton Valley, Freedom, Deer Valley, Liberty, Antioch, Mt. Eden, Amador Valley, Foothill, Castro Valley, Berkeley, San Ramon Valley, Dougherty Valley, Newark Memorial, College Park, El Cerrito
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. De La Salle
2. Dublin
3. Heritage
4. James Logan
5. Freedom
6. San Leandro
7. Antioch
8. Deer Valley
9. Liberty
10. Castro Valley
11. Clayton Valley
12. Foothill
13. Mt. Eden
14. Berkeley
15. Dougherty Valley
16. San Ramon Valley
Comments: It’s hard to imagine anyone other than DLS getting the top seed, especially with an unbeaten record in the EBAL. Dublin stumbled a little against Foothill, but still has a head-to-head win over Heritage, and has been dominant since that loss. Heritage’s strong run in the second half of BVAL play, following its loss to Antioch, has it looking good for the three seed, especially with a season sweep of Freedom, who has a non-league win over Moreau Catholic.
Logan’s loss to Moreau means they can do no better than tie for the MVAL crown, though they will still get the auto berth, provided they win their regular-season finale, by virtue of an agreement between the schools and the league. The Colts also have a win over San Leandro, and should be in the discussion for the three seed, a likelihood if Heritage stumbles in the regular season finale. Freedom, meanwhile, will not be a league champ like Logan, but has a head-to-head win over San Leandro, and split the season series with Antioch, winning the second meeting.
San Leandro is hot and now has head-to-head wins against Antioch and Bishop O’Dowd, while sweeping the season series from Berkeley and splitting with Castro Valley and Mt. Eden. Freedom has swept the season series from Deer Valley, who beat Liberty in their only meeting so far.
After San Leandro as the six seed, you can start throwing names in a hat. Antioch beat Deer Valley in their first meeting, and swept the season series from Liberty. The Panthers also have a pair of wins over San Ramon Valley and beat Dougherty Valley, but did lose to Foothill and El Cerrito. Deer Valley, meanwhile, has wins over Clayton Valley and Amador Valley, plus a sweep of Liberty, not to mention a strong win over Las Lomas.
Liberty’s wins over Castro Valley and San Leandro can keep the Lions ahead of the Trojans, or their league record could send them free-falling towards the bottom of the seeding. Castro Valley has head-to-head wins over Clayton Valley and Dougherty Valley, split the season series with San Leandro and Berkeley, and goes for a series sweep against Mt. Eden on Friday, having won the first meeting.
Clayton Valley will be an interesting placement, as an unbeaten league champ. The Ugly Eagles lost to Deer Valley, Pittsburg, Castro Valley, and Logan, but have wins over Foothill, Amador Valley, El Cerrito, Mt. Eden, and San Ramon Valley. The same goes for Foothill, who has the loss to CVC, but a win over Antioch. They split the series with Amador Valley, winning the second meeting, lost to Dougherty Valley, but the Falcons also have a huge win over Dublin.
Mt. Eden has wins over Amador Valley and El Cerrito, and just won the second meeting to split the season series with both San Leandro and Berkeley. The Monarchs can move up in seeding if they can beat Castro Valley on Friday to earn a split there.
Each of three teams here in the seedings can be considered on the bubble. Berkeley did not play any EBAL teams this year, and after a strong start to league play – including wins over Mt. Eden and Castro Valley – the Yellowjackets have lost four of five, and that playoff spot has become precarious.
Dougherty Valley split the season series with San Ramon Valley, winning the second meeting, while also beating Amador Valley head-to-head. Amador Valley is likely on the outside looking in, with a loss to San Ramon Valley, and losses to every team above them on this list which they played. The same goes for Newark and College Park, who are both eligible based on league records, but struggled outside of league play.
El Cerrito will be another tough decision. The Gauchos are below .500 overall, but have a win over Antioch, but also losses to Clayton Valley and Mt. Eden. They could, however, bump any of the three teams at the bottom of this list.
DIVISION II
Eligible: Bishop O’Dowd, Cardinal Newman, Windsor, Montgomery, San Lorenzo, Las Lomas, Alameda, Redwood, Tamalpais, Acalanes, Washington, Moreau Catholic, Santa Rosa, Petaluma, De Anza, Concord
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Bishop O’Dowd
2. Moreau Catholic
3. Las Lomas
4. Montgomery
5. Cardinal Newman
6. Windsor
7. San Lorenzo
8. Acalanes
9. Redwood
10. Tamalpais
11. Alameda
12. Washington
13. Santa Rosa
14. Petaluma
15. De Anza
16. Concord
Comments: O’Dowd and Moreau Catholic have two of the most average-looking overall records, at least until you look at the strength of schedule and the league records. O’Dowd is on track to win the WACC-Foothill, while Moreau is tied with Logan atop the MVAL. If these two are not seeded as the top two seeds, then the committee is sending a bad message about scheduling, even after O’Dowd’s loss to San Leandro.
The three and four seed could be a lengthy discussion. Las Lomas has a split with Mt. Eden, who also beat Cardinal Newman. The Knights also swept Miramonte and Acalanes, and have strong non-league wins over Clayton Valley, Berkeley, Amador Valley, and El Cerrito. Cardinal Newman took three games from Windsor, and has wins over Miramonte, Analy, Dougherty Valley, and Marin Catholic. Montgomery has the recent head-to-head edge over Windsor, winning the second meeting there to earn a split, and has won two of three games against Cardinal Newman, but the four seed will likely be determined by the winner of the NBL tournament.
Windsor is a solid six seed right now, but the quartet of San Lorenzo, Acalanes, Redwood, and Tamalpais will be difficult to sort out. Tam advanced in the MCAL tournament, while Redwood lost to San Marin, but the Giants beat Tam in the most recent meeting between the schools. San Lorenzo sits atop the WACC-Shoreline, unbeaten in that division, and all five losses are to quality opponents. Acalanes has a head-to-head win over Tam, and added a big win over Campolindo last week.
Alameda’s one-point loss to San Lorenzo could boost the Hornets even higher, but the loss to Hayward could prove damaging. Honestly, there is very little to separate these teams.
Santa Rosa has a head-to-head win over Petaluma, so that seeding is pretty set. Concord is just 7-15 overall, but 6-3 in league play, and will be the beneficiary of a field void of any other eligible competitors.
DIVISION III
Eligible: Salesian, Analy, Drake, Hercules, Campolindo, San Marin, Albany, Miramonte, Piner, Kennedy-Richmond, Hayward, Encinal
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Salesian
2. Analy
3. Campolindo
4. San Marin
5. Drake
6. Hercules
7. Albany
8. Miramonte
9. Piner
10. Kennedy-Richmond
11. Encinal
12. Hayward
Comments: The seeding committee will have this one easily decided before the Sunday meeting, at least the top seed. Salesian is a lock for the number one seed, and will be a heavy favorite to advance through this bracket and into the CIF Open field.
Analy is unbeaten in SCL play, with non-league wins over San Marin, Albany, and Kennedy-Richmond, giving the Tigers a strong case for the two seed. San Marin, Drake, and Campolindo will be a heavy debate for the three seed, but we are giving the edge to the Cougars based on their season sweep over Miramonte, plus a recent win over Las Lomas and a strong non-league schedule. Drake beat Miramonte in overtime, and also beat Kennedy-Richmond, but has a season split with San Marin.
San Marin has a strong case for the four seed, with non-league wins over both Encinal and Piner, plus the split with Drake. The Mustangs won the second meeting, though, and have advanced farther in the MCAL tournament.
Hercules has a season sweep over Kennedy-Richmond, and wins over De Anza and San Lorenzo, both potential playoff teams in a higher division. They can make an argument for the four or five seed, depending on how they do in the TCAL-Stone tournament.
Albany has strong non-league wins over Stuart Hall, Berkeley, Encinal, De Anza, and Alhambra, and just a three-point loss to Analy. The strength of their league should help, and the Cougars could even have an argument for a top-four seed, despite the league record.
Miramonte has the losses to Drake and Campolindo, and will be a tough team to seed based on the lack of common opponents with any of the other teams in this division. The Matadors have a better schedule and strength of wins compared to any of the teams below them, but not necessarily compared to the teams we have ahead of them right now.
Piner has a pair of losses to Analy and a one-point loss to San Marin. The Prospectors have a strong common opponent edge over Kennedy-Richmond, with a win over Swett, who swept its season series with Kennedy. Kennedy, meanwhile, lost twice to Hercules and has single-digit losses to Drake and Analy.
Encinal is eligible, and has a head-to-head win over Hayward. Hayward is also eligible, and a strong season split with Alameda, but the head-to-head loss against Encinal. The regular season finale between those two teams will decide the seeding there.
DIVISION IV
Eligible: St. Joseph Notre Dame, University, Kelseyville, St. Patrick-St. Vincent, Stuart Hall, Arcata, Lick-Wilmerding, Healdsburg, McKinleyville, Swett, Marin Catholic, Roseland University Prep, Gateway, Piedmont, Fortuna
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. St. Joseph Notre Dame
2. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
3. University
4. Marin Catholic
5. Stuart Hall
6. Arcata
7. McKinleyville
8. Kelseyville
9. Piedmont
10. Lick-Wilmerding
11. Swett
12. Healdsburg
13. Fortuna
14. Gateway
15. Roseland University Prep
Comments:
St. Joe’s is a no-brainer for the top seed, especially with three wins already against St. Pat’s. Likewise, the Bruins are a lock for the two seed, especially with their recent win over Salesian.
University and Marin Catholic could be a lengthy discussion for the three seed, especially if Marin Catholic adds a MCAL tournament title to go with the regular season crown. University has otherwise very impressive this season, with wins over Albany, Riordan, Encinal, Alhambra, De Anza, Carlmont, and twice over Lick. The Red Devils also split the season series with Stuart Hall, winning the second meeting.
Marin Catholic played a difficult non-league schedule, and won the MCAL regular season title. The early schedule included a win over Modesto Christian, which is sure to carry weight with the seeding committee, possibly all the way up to the three seed. Stuart Hall has big non-league wins over Piedmont, Half Moon Bay, Pinewood, Acalanes, and Berkeley, but also a loss to Division 5 Cloverdale.
Arcata also played a tough early schedule, which included wins over Granada and Kelseyville. The Tigers did lose early to McKinleyville, but got them back with two later victories.
Kelseyville’s recent win over Cloverdale split that season series, but the big non-league loss to Arcata could keep them beneath both Arcata and McKinleyville. Piedmont will be a tough team to seed here. The overall strength of schedule is stronger than the three teams we have right above them, and they do have a win over Swett, but also a loss to Stuart Hall.
Swett has wins over Gateway and Roseland, with the loss to Piedmont. The Warriors also have a loss to Urban, who split its season series with Lick-Wilmerding. Lick’s recent win over Urban could place the Tigers above Swett. They also have a win over Gateway.
Healdsburg also beat Roseland in non-league play, and has two wins over Piner and a win over Tamalpais, both teams which will be in higher playoff classifications. A strong finish in the SCL tournament could elevate the Greyhounds another two or three spots. Fortuna clinched eligibility, and has a big win over McKinleyville, splitting that season series by winning the second meeting. The Huskies will be considered for anywhere from 11 through 13.
Gateway has clinched eligibility with its record in the BCL, and also has a win over Roseland Prep. Roseland is eligible based on its record in the NCL II.
DIVISION V
Eligible: Quarry Lane, Sonoma Academy, Berean Christian, St. Bernard’s, Cloverdale, Branson, Head-Royce, International, Oakland Military Institute, Bentley, St. Vincent de Paul, The Bay School, Upper Lake, Clear Lake, St. Helena, Redwood Christian, Hoopa Valley
PROJECTED SEEDS (top 8 only – 16-team field)
1. Cloverdale
2. Branson
3. Head-Royce
4. Bentley
5. Berean Christian
6. St. Bernard’s
7. St. Helena
8. International
