With just two regular season weeks remaining, the playoff picture is coming into focus across all divisions in the North Coast Section. The moratorium on the .500 record rule has multiple teams hopeful of playoff berths who would have been previously left out, and it is important to note that the North Coast Section committees weigh a variety of criteria. One thing that is not a factor, however, are scores of games, as the committee only looks at wins and losses; scores are not even part of a school's application.
Without further ado, we take a look at our projections heading into the final two weeks.
DIVISION 1
PROJECTED SEEDING
De La Salle
Pittsburg
Monte Vista
California
Clayton Valley
Antioch
Vintage
James Logan
BUBBLE TEAMS
Amador Valley
Liberty
Heritage
Of the 12 teams in Division 1, there is only one team who is truly out of the running for a post-season berth. Vintage and James Logan have climbed back into the picture as each of them have reasonable shots at being league champions and earning an automatic berth.
Vintage was in trouble after its loss to Casa Grande, which lost to Antioch, but with American Canyon beating Casa Grande, the Crushers find themselves as one of four one-loss teams in VVAL play. As long as Vintage does not finish only in a tie with Casa Grande, each other tiebreak scenario seems to favor Vintage getting its league's auto berth.
Likewise, James Logan looked unlikely for the playoffs after a loss to Heritage - its fourth straight to start the season. However, the Colts have rallied with big wins over Freedom and San Leandro, the latter of which seems to have them in the driver's seat for the WACC-MVAL Foothill Division title. Logan absolutely needs a win over Bishop O'Dowd, though, to clinch a title and wrap up the league's automatic berth.
As for the seeding, De La Salle and Pittsburg feel like locks for the top two seeds, unless Antioch has something to say about it when the Panthers face the Pirates. The next three seeds are fully up for grabs. We have Monte Vista listed in the three spot for now, based on its win over California and Cal's win over Clayton Valley, but Clayton Valley can throw these three spots into chaos if the Ugly Eagles defeat Monte Vista.
That leaves one final spot up for grabs, with Antioch, Liberty, Amador Valley and Heritage all vying for the final spot. If Antioch beats Liberty, that should be enough for the Panthers to get in, especially considering their strong non-league schedule and win over Casa Grande, which is why we would place Antioch ahead of Vintage in the seedings.
Liberty might have the toughest road to get in, as the Lions could beat both Antioch and Heritage, but a non-league loss to Dublin hurts the Lions when stacking them up against Amador Valley, which beat the Gaels and plays in the brutal EBAL-Mountain.
Heritage also has losses to Dublin and Antioch, but if Liberty beats Antioch and the Patriots beat Liberty in the regular season finale, then they might sneak past Amador Valley and Antioch for the final spot, based on having a win over a team that is in the field (James Logan).
DIVISION 2
PROJECTED SEEDING
San Ramon Valley
Rancho Cotate
Foothill
Dublin
Campolindo
San Leandro
Livermore
Redwood
BUBBLE TEAMS
Castro Valley
Granada
Mt. Eden
Dougherty Valley
What separates San Ramon Valley and Rancho Cotate from Foothill at this point is Rancho's win over Vanden, which beat Foothill. What gives SRV an edge over Rancho for the top seed right now is the Wolves' win over Foothill, which is in line for the three seed following the Falcons' win over Dublin.
Rancho Cotate could make a case for the top seed, however, with wins over Windsor and/or Cardinal Newman. Dublin has a common opponent edge over Campolindo, as the Gaels beat a Liberty team which downed the Cougars. Meanwhile, Campolindo beat San Leandro to get an advantage over the Pirates.
San Leandro has a marquee win over Cardinal Newman, and the Pirates could make a case to move higher if Cardinal Newman beats Rancho Cotate and San Leandro beats Bishop O'Dowd. Livermore and Redwood look like the two best of the rest, though Livermore finishes with Dublin and Granada, two games which will both impact the Cowboys' playoff hopes and seeding.
Castro Valley's loss to Encinal will likely prevent the Trojans from capturing the WACC-MVAL Mission Division, which was their best path into the playoffs. Redwood has a bad loss to Ukiah, and the Giants' overall resume lacks a true quality win, but their wins over Archie Williams and College Park could be just enough to get them in here, as long as they manage at least a split of their final two games.
DIVISION 3
PROJECTED SEEDING
Windsor
El Cerrito
Benicia
Las Lomas
Acalanes
American Canyon
Casa Grande
Northgate/College Park
BUBBLE TEAMS
Bishop O'Dowd
Santa Rosa
Montgomery
Windsor lost an opportunity to make a monster statement when its game with Cardinal Newman was canceled, but the Jaguars still own huge wins over Benicia and East Union-Manteca, and can add to their resume with a win over Rancho Cotate. El Cerrito has a trio of quality wins, beating Vintage, De Anza and Bishop O'Dowd, but no remaining opportunities to bolster their seeding.
Benicia has big wins over Campolindo and Acalanes, and like El Cerrito both of its losses are to quality opponents. If the Panthers end up beating Las Lomas to claim the DAL-Foothill title, then they would have a strong argument for the two seed over the Gauchos.
Las Lomas is placed behind the other three at this point due to the fact that Benicia already has a win over Campo, but the Knights get their own shot at the Cougars this week before finishing against Benicia, so all the way up to the two seed is still in play for Las Lomas. Acalanes won't really be able to climb any higher in the seeding due to its losses to both Benicia and Las Lomas.
Currently, American Canyon gets the nod for the six seed after last week's win over Casa Grande, which slides in right behind the Wolves based on its earlier wins over Vintage and Livermore, both projected playoff teams in higher divisions. Either Northgate or College Park will end up as the DAL-Valley champion, where the eight seed seems likely for either team who gets the automatic berth. Their game next week will be for both a league title and a playoff berth.
Santa Rosa has a win over Montgomery, giving SR the edge over the Vikings, but Bishop O'Dowd could make its own strong case with a win over San Leandro and/or James Logan in the next two weeks. If the Dragons win one of those games, it will be a tough discussion between them and the two VVAL teams for the final at-large berth. If they win both, they will be in the field.
DIVISION 4
PROJECTED SEEDING
Marin Catholic
Cardinal Newman
Tennyson
Tamalpais
Petaluma
Vallejo
Maria Carrillo
Newark Memorial
BUBBLE TEAMS
Mt. Diablo
Piner
Marin Catholic has a stranglehold on the top seed in this division, followed by its familiar foe in Cardinal Newman. The Cardinals do have a loss to San Leandro which could be viewed as suspect, but with wins over Vacaville, Vintage and De Anza, their resume is still solid enough for a top two seed.
Tennyson is unbeaten, but going undefeated and winning the WACC-MVAL Shoreline Division would not be enough for a top three seed were it not for the Lancers' win over James Logan, which has gotten better in recent weeks as the Colts have knocked off opponents and put themselves in line for a playoff berth.
Petaluma's resume will be largely determined by the Trojans' upcoming games against American Canyon and Casa Grande. As of now, Tamalpais' win over Redwood is better than anything on Petaluma's slate, which is why we have the Red-Tailed Hawks in the four spot.
There is a huge dropoff after the first five teams in this division. Vallejo's game with Hercules this week will likely decide the TCAL-Stone title, and the Redhawks have a win over St. Mary's-Albany, which is why we have them in the six seed.
Maria Carrillo is only 1-7 right now, but with the .500 record bylaws suspended for the year, the Pumas can get into the field with wins over West County and Ukiah. If they win both, and Vallejo loses to Hercules, Carrillo could end up at the six seed.
Determining the final spot will be a challenge, and seems to be between Newark Memorial and Mt. Diablo. Both teams have wins over American, and Newark appears likely to get to 5-5 at the end of the season.
DIVISION 5
PROJECTED SEEDING
Del Norte
San Marin
Encinal
St. Bernard's
De Anza
Miramonte
Eureka
Hercules
BUBBLE TEAMS
Fortuna
West County
Archie Williams
Del Norte sweeping St. Bernard's should carry significant weight for seeding in this division, along with its wins over Eureka and Fortuna. San Marin should not be penalized for a loss to Marin Catholic, and the Mustangs could make a strong case for the top seed if they win their final two games against Tamalpais and Redwood. Encinal will likely finish as a one-loss team as well, but the Jets' strength of schedule does not warrant a top-two seed.
St. Bernard's can solidify its top-four status by taking care of business against Eureka and Fortuna in the final two weeks. All of De Anza's losses are to quality opponents, and the Dons have a quality win over Salesian.
Miramonte is 5-2, with both losses to quality opponents, but the Matadors have yet to post a strong victory that would move them any higher. The Mats are likely to end up 5-4 after two tough games to finish the regular season, but the strength of schedule will increase as a result.
Hercules is in the eight spot right now, but that is contingent on the Titans beating Vallejo for the TCAL-Stone title. If they win that game, they clinch a playoff berth as a league champion. If they lose, however, they could see Fortuna or West County surge past them for the final spot.
DIVISION 6
PROJECTED SEEDINGS
Salesian
Arcata
Justin-Siena
Saint Mary's
Middletown
Pinole Valley
San Lorenzo
Kelseyville
BUBBLE TEAMS
Fort Bragg
Much like Division 5, this division is struggling with teams who have solid playoff resumes. Salesian has only two quality losses to El Cerrito and De Anza, and wins over Pinole Valley and Hercules. Arcata also has a win over Pinole Valley, and like Salesian, two quality losses to Sutter and St. Bernard's.
Justin-Siena has a loss to Fortuna that stings a bit, but also wins over Napa and Saint Mary's, who beat Middletown in their meeting. That should help sort out the seeding in the middle of the field a bit.
Pinole Valley falls in line as the next best team in this field, while San Lorenzo and Kelseyville appear likely to have shots in the field, despite a combined three wins among them. Kelseyville's win over Fort Bragg should have significant impact here, even though it is the Knights' only win of the season. The remaining four teams not listed for this division are all winless.
DIVISION 7
PROJECTED SEEDINGS
St Vincent de Paul
St Helena
Clear Lake
St Patrick-St Vincent
Ferndale
McKinleyville
Willits
Cloverdale
BUBBLE TEAMS
Berean Christian
Healdsburg
The top three seeds seem like the only fairly sure thing in this division. St. Vincent's win over St. Helena is still holding up, while St. Helena and Clear Lake face each other this week for the NCL I title. The winner of that game will be the two seed as well.
It gets messy after the top three, including a SPSV team which has a quality win over Saint Mary's. The Bruins could go as high as the four seed, or as low as the eight seed, or even left out. In fact, that's how the rest of this bracket feels.
We have Ferndale over McKinleyville right now since the Wildcats won that match-up, and McKinleyville has wins over both Willits and Fort Bragg. Willits owns a win over Cloverdale, and though Healdsburg has a win over Willits, Cloverdale beat the Greyhounds and has a win over Piner, which also beat Healdsburg.
Berean Christian finishes with Concord and Ygnacio Valley, and winning both games could get the Eagles a playoff berth. In reality, the bottom five seeds are still very much getting sorted out.
