De La Salle quarterback Carson Su'esu'e hands off to Charles Greer earlier this season at St. Mary's-Stockton. The Spartans are the current projected No. 1 seed in the upsoming NCS D1 playoffs
Harold Abend/Prep2Prep
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Prep2Prep NCS Football Playoff Projections – Division I

October 20, 2022

One of the more interesting nuances of high school football in California is everyone that makes the playoffs in each of the 10 state CIF sections is vying to get to a Bowl Game. However, the road to get there is very different for each individual section since each section has its own criteria for playoff seeding.

In its name, the California Interscholastic Federation (CIF) is the word "federation", and that means that while each section is a member of the federation, they are autonomous when it comes to things like playoff seedings, plus more. What that translates into is that presently none of the 10 sections’ criteria is exactly the same.

Sound confusing? Quite frankly, it can be.

A perfect example is the CIF Central Coast Section and the CIF North Coast Section

Unlike the CCS where they use a points system that has 12 different criteria with four of them based on computer generated rankings, and where the points are fluid and can be calculated on a weekly basis, the NCS is much different.

The NCS has two criteria broken down into seven different categories. The NCS website states the following about the criteria for at-large selection. It also states that football coaches are responsible for reading the playoff guide in which the criteria are contained, in its entirety:

The criteria for selection of at-large teams for NCS Championship Series in football shall be a balance between:

1) Record overall

a. League/Place co-champion

b. Non-league (pre-season-other)

2) Strength of Schedule

a. Record against teams in the same division

List your most significant victories/defeats

b. Record against teams in a higher division

List your most significant victories

c. Head-to-head against teams which have qualified or are being considered

d. Record against common opponents

e. Coaches’ Ranking

According to sources within the NCS that have served on various football seeding committees, the most important criteria is head-to-head against teams with playoff possibilities.

That having been said we will start with Division I this week and then next week go down the line to Division VII next week.

The one thing that is the same in the NCS and CCS is while the points can change each week in the CCS, the pecking order in the NCS evolves with key head-to-head matchups, and this week we have a few in the Division I bracket.

Here is a look at the eight-team bracket based on what we currently project prior to the games this Friday. Remember, this is based on the criteria of the NCS as we can sort it tout, and doesn’t exactly match the current Prep2Prep NCS rankings, but things will start to shake out there as the regular season winds down

1. De La Salle 4-3

Despite the fact the Spartans haven’t lost to a team from the NCS since 1991, some sources have told us there is some chatter about them not being the top seed. That could happen if they lose in one or more of their last three games against EBAL-Mountain Division opponents, including a regular-season finale across town at Clayton Valley.

But right now they should have a lock on the top seed. The last time the Spartans had this many losses was in 2004 when they were 2-3-2 entering league play but ended up 5-3-2 entering the playoffs. They still hadn’t lost to an NCS team at that time in 13 years, but the seeding committee stunned De La Salle legendary Coach Bob Ladouceur and the media, who were allowed to attend the meetings back then, when they made the Spartans the No. 3 seed behind Amador Valley and Pittsburg. At the time Lad left after telling the media it didn’t make any difference that his team was snubbed and they would have to prove it on the field. Guess what? After trouncing Monte Vista they went into Pittsburg and marched back over the hill with a 31-6 victory. Then, in the 4-A East Bay title game Cal’s Memorial Stadium, Lad had the last laugh after his Spartans demolished Amador Valley, 41-0.

2. Pittsburg 6-1

The road to the No. 2 seed for head coach Vic Galli and his Pirates begins this Friday with the first of three final BVAL matchups with visiting Freedom. Then comes Heritage on the road and a regular-season finale at neighboring Antioch.

3. Clayton Valley 4-3

The Ugly Eagles still have some work to do to secure the No. 3 seed which right now is theirs, and it starts this week with visiting California in the first of their final EBAL-Mountain Division contests. From there, the Uglies visit Monte Vista and then host De La Salle in their regular-season finale.

4. California 5-2

The Grizzlies already have losses to Pittsburg and to De La Salle so the chances of passing those two are remote, but if they can upset Clayton Valley on Friday and then close out EBAL-Mountain Division play with wins at San Ramon Valley and Amador Valley, they likely would be the No. 3 seed.

5. Liberty 4-3

In the P2P NCS rankings we admitted we let the Lions get by us, but based on their competitive equity resume and the NCS seeding criteria, the Lions are looking like the fifth seed. That could change on Friday when they visit neighboring Antioch. From there they host Deer Valley and Heritage to close out BVAL and regular-season play.

6. James Logan 5-2

The computer rankings have the Colts behind Heritage but the head-to-head being one of the top criteria of the NCS seeding committee, and Logan has a 17-7 win over Heritage. They were soundly beaten in their two losses to California and Marin Catholic, and their strength of schedule is not great, and won’t get better in three final MVAL/WACC games with Tennyson, Bishop O’Dowd and Encinal, but based on the criteria they are the sixth seed right now.

7. Antioch 3-4

Like James Logan the computer has Antioch behind Heritage, but last week the Panthers beat the Patriots 23-14, so based on the NCS head-to-head criteria makes this a no-brainer. The Panthers can move up with a win over visiting Liberty this Friday, and then they’ll be favored at Freedom. If somehow they can win the BVAL and beat Pittsburg at home in their BVAL and regular season final game, they’ll move way up in the seedings.

8. Heritage 5-2

As previously mentioned, Heritage has to fall behind James Logan and Antioch based on head-to-head losses, so at this point its looking like a No. 8 seed. The Patriots will be favored this Friday against visiting Deer Valley, but then comes Pittsburg at home. The best shot Heritage has to move up is if it can win the battle of Brentwood in its BVAL and regular season finale at Liberty. About the only way they can miss the playoffs is if Amador Valley can win a game in its final three EBAL-Mountain Division contests with San Ramon Valley, De La Salle and California.

Not seeded at this time

Amador Valley

Freedom

Monte Vista


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