We are releasing our projections for the 2015 Central Coast Section playoff tournament based on the latest information
presented to Prep2Prep through the end of the regular season. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams
that compete in the Central Coast Section, but it is possible that there are slight schedule variations for some teams.
Based on direct information we have received from the Bellarmine baseball program, we can confirm that the Bells will opt up to the Open
Division, assuming they don't qualify anyway. The same goes for Mitty. Based on our latest projections, both teams would fall short of the at-large spots.
Mitty and Bellarmine opting up means Terra Nova and Hillsdale would drop down to their enrollment divisions unless they also opt up. This is because
we have received word that Saratoga will also opt up and Hillsdale will not. Of course any last-minute decisions to opt up will impact the entire
brackets.
The seeding meeting is scheduled for Saturday May 16 at 4:00 PM in the CCS office.
In determining the 48 qualifiers for the CCS playoffs (see details below), we ran across a few tiebreaker situations. Piedmont Hills edged out Prospect
for the second automatic bid from the BVAL-Santa Teresa by head-to-head results.
In the WCAL, Bellarmine gets the tiebreaker over St. Ignatius for the fifth and final automatic bid, but both teams will get in easily.
Watsonville and North Salinas tied for the MBL-Pacific title but the Wildcatz win the tiebreaker by virtue of their head-to-head results against North Salinas.
Finally, the results of all the league playoffs are in, which have a profound effect on the seedings. Based on the bylaws of the BVAL, SCCAL and SCVAL, the winner
of the league tournament gets a piece of the championship. Therefore, Leigh, Santa Cruz and Palo Alto not only get a share of their respective league titles, but
they get put into the Open Division as a result. This not only shakes up the Open Division, it impacts the bubble because Santa Cruz essentially stole a playoff
spot from the first team out (Leigh and Palo Alto would have been automatic qualifiers anyway).
As it turns out, the team impacted the most from Santa Cruz qualifying is league mate Harbor. Based on our calculations, the Pirates are the first team out,
just 0.29 points behind Monta Vista, which needed to win its final league game to get the final at-large bid.
These projections are
based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep
via
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For more details on the CCS point system, please click
here.
A quick summary of how the teams are selected is below.
Here's a quick overview on the process: a total of 48 teams spread out over three enrollment-based divisions of 16 teams each qualify for the CCS
Baseball Playoffs. Of the 48, 40 receive automatic bids based on their position in their league standings as follows: BVAL (8), PAL (6),
SCVAL (6), MBL (6), WCAL (5), SCCAL (3), MTAL (3), WBAL (2) and PSAL (1).
The remaining eight at-large teams are selected based on a point system that awards teams based on results over the course of the last
22 games a team plays. One caveat: all league games must be included among the 22, so that if a team plays a league game that is not among
its last 22 games, that league game is substituted in for the earliest played non-league game.
To be considered for an at-large berth,
teams must have at least a .500 record in any one of the following: a) in league; b) overall; c) over the last 22 games that are included
in the CCS point calculation.
Leagues within CCS are designated as "A" (highest), "B" and "C". Wins against "A" teams count for 3 points; wins against "B" teams count for
2.5; and wins against "C" teams count for 2. Strip off one point from those totals in cases of ties, and two points for losses to respectively
designed "A", "B" and "C" teams.
Teams outside of CCS are considered "B" teams unless they achieve a winning percentage of .700 or greater; in which case, they are considered
"A" teams.
Finally, teams are awarded 2 points for playing an "A" league champion, 1.5 points for playing a "B" league champion and 1 point for playing
a "C" league champion. These points are only awarded for playing a CCS league champion.
There is also a CCS bylaw that states that teams only get credit for playing a divisional
league champion twice during league play. So for teams that play each other three times during the regular-season round robin, we must
disregard the bonus points for the third meeting against the prospective league champ. This affects the following leagues:
BVAL-WV, MBL-Gabilan, MBL-Pacific, MTAL, PAL-Lake and SCVAL-EC.
Teams also receive 8 points for being an "A" league champion, 7 for being a "B" league champion and 6 for being a
"C" league champion.
There is an Open Division tournament for the top teams in the section. League champs - including co-champs - of the
six "A" divisions -
BVAL-MH, MBL-Gabilan, PAL-Bay, SCCAL, SCVAL-DA and WCAL - are automatically entered into this tournament. The next highest CCS point totals
qualify for the Open Division. Teams may also elect to opt into the Open Division right up until end of the season, so for our purposes,
we will just assume the top point-getters.
Because the season is not over, we must make a few assumptions:
ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing
a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team.
ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently
tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded one point for playing a league champion; if a team played a team
that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team 0.33 points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the
same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.
ASSUMPTION 3: the Open Division will be made up of the six "A" league champs and next 10 highest point totals; i.e., we will not attempt
to predict which teams will opt up but if we receive confirmation from schools, we will reflect that in our projections.
ASSUMPTION 4: for out-of-section teams that we were unable to find accurate records, we assumed them to be "B" teams and not division champs.
ASSUMPTION 5: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large
teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in
first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration. If we cannot
determine a league's bylaws, we will assume they rank by order of CCS points.
ASSUMPTION 6: some leagues hold a postseason tournament to fill out their allotment of automatic qualifiers. In those instances, we assumed
the team(s) with the highest CCS point totals will receive the automatic bid.
ASSUMPTION 7: by CCS rules, a team must have at least a .500 record in league, overall or in the 22 games under consideration for its CCS
point total. In the case of league and overall records, we simply took the team's record as of this date; for the 22-game consideration,
we looked at the record for the games within the 22 that have already been played.
OPEN DIVISION: Forty-eight teams qualify for the CCS playoffs. After the 16 teams are selected for the Open Division, the next
32 are placed into the playoff field based on enrollment; the top 16 enrollment schools in Division I and the next 16 in Division II.
By CCS bylaws, all teams involved in ties for first in "A" leagues
are put into the Open Division. This accounted for 11 of the 16 spots, with the final five spots allocated to teams with the next highest point totals.
As mentioned above, Mitty and Bellarmine will opt up and take two of those spots unless more teams ahead of them also decide to do so.
We had to move Saratoga, Mitty and Bellarmine to avoid first-round matchups with league mates.
NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.
DIVISION I: After the 16 Open Division teams are selected, the next 16 teams by enrollment are
placed in Division I.
The two smallest schools in Division I right now are Willow Glen (1,692) and Pioneer (1,627) - if things break differently,
they could wind up in Division II.
DIVISION II: Finally, the remaining 16 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division II.
St. Ignatius (1,477) and Aragon (1,431) are the highest enrollment schools in Division II so they could potentially wind
up in Division I.
As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 8 at-large teams included in the complete field of 48 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at
the those last teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now. This
only includes team that meet the .500 eligibility requirement. The following teams have enough points to grab one of the final at-large spots,
but don't meet the .500 requirement: Monte Vista Christian, Westmont.
