Prep2Prep NCS Playoff Projections
UPDATED 2/24/14
Head-to-head results have always been the biggest deciding factor amongst the NCS selection committees and that is the main factor
we are using when determining these potential seeds.
Teams are eligible for the playoffs if they meet just one of the following criteria: a) an overall record of at least an equal number of
wins and losses; b) a record against teams in their own division of at least an equal number of wins and losses (games against
opponents outside the NCS and within the same division count toward the division record); c) a record in their school’s league of at
least an equal number of wins and losses, with the exception of league champions who gain automatic entry.
NOTE: Seedings are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.
DIVISION I:
After just 11 teams made the field last season and 12 made it in 2012, the NCS Division I playoff field looks like it should have at
least 14 teams this year.
The biggest question appears to be which, if any, non-EBAL teams can be among the top three seeds.
Top two seeds should go to Danville
Monte Vista is a lock to be the top overall seed after securing the EBAL championship with a win over rival San Ramon Valley on Friday night.
San Ramon Valley has a bad neutral court loss to San Leandro but has a very strong resume overall. This includes home wins over Monte
Vista and Castro Valley, plus wins at De La Salle and Riordan.
Who takes the third seed?
Castro Valley appears to be the best bet. The Trojans helped themselves with a sweep of Berkeley and also played Bishop O’Dowd tough in the
season-finale loss. Castro Valley, which placed second in the WACC, defeated James Logan, San Leandro, and Berkeley this year and
also has a one-point loss to San Ramon and split with San Leandro.
De La Salle’s strongest non-league win was over Bellevue (WA) and the Spartans also won in league at San Ramon but were 1-3 overall versus
the Danville schools, including two three-point defeats to Monte Vista.
Freedom, as the BVAL champions, has a shot at a three seed and does own two wins over Montgomery, which may be the top seed in Division II.
The Falcons may be held back because it was a down year for the Bay Valley.
Is Berkeley locked into #6?
Berkeley didn’t play a strong non-league schedule but does own a win over Salesian and the Pride may be the top seed in Division IV. The
Yellowjackets also swept San Leandro and were competitive in one of two losses to Bishop O’Dowd.
Seven teams with claim to the #7 seed
Pittsburg may have an outside chance to a #6 seed after ending the season with a seven-game win streak. The Pirates were the only
BVAL team to beat Freedom but have non-league losses to Granada, San Leandro, and Foothill. Will the committee seed Pittsburg higher
than Granada and San Leandro?
Speaking of San Leandro, it is the toughest team to predict. The Pirates have wins over San Ramon, Pittsburg, and split with Castro Valley,
but losses to Amador Valley, James Logan, and Berkeley (twice).
Dougherty Valley’s best argument is close losses to San Ramon and Serra. The Wildcats don’t have any great wins but own a convincing
victory over Granada, swept Miramonte, beat Fortuna and Maria Carrillo, and finished on a five-game win streak. The black mark is a
loss to Arroyo.
Heritage split with Pittsburg and own an early home win over Granada.
Liberty owns a home win over Granada but dropped four of its final six games and don’t own many big wins. The Lions may be a #13 seed
to avoid all-EBAL matchups in the first round as I’m not sure the committee will have Amador Valley play at De La Salle.
Granada has a win over Pittsburg and split its two games with San Ramon but has losses to Heritage, Liberty, and Dougherty Valley. The Mats
have lost four of their last seven and haven’t won two in a row in over two months.
Amador Valley is an interesting case with a win over San Leandro but dropped its final three games and finished fifth in the EBAL. The
Dons were also swept by rival Foothill.
The #14 and #15 seeds
James Logan placed third in the MVAL and the Colts own a recent win over Moreau Catholic and also have a non-league win over San Leandro,
but losses to De La Salle, Freedom, Castro Valley, and Kennedy-Fremont, which finished at 7-19.
Santa Rosa is in if it applies as it was 1-1 versus Division I teams.
DIVISION II:
The NCS Division II field could feature the heavy favorite, Newark Memorial, as a #3 seed based on the Cougars' loss to College Park and
College Park’s loss to Montgomery.
Washington is a very interesting case because of its unimpressive record but December win over Maria Carrillo.
Top three seeds
Montgomery is in good shape for a top seed thanks to its NBL regular season and playoff title and convincing win at College Park. It does
have a black mark on the resume with a home loss to Casa Grande.
College Park stumbled with losses to Concord and Clayton Valley last week but the win over Newark Memorial may assure the second seed.
Newark Memorial, as the two-time defending champions, is the favorite again and has won 17 games in a row. The Cougars own impressive
wins over Modesto Christian, Jesuit, and Moreau Catholic (twice) but may not be a top seed because of a home loss to College Park.
Home for the first round
The fourth seed will be very important as it could guarantee a home game for the first two rounds.
Concord looks like the best bet for the #4 seed after a convincing season-finale win over Clayton Valley Charter. The Minutemen also have
wins over College Park (split), Las Lomas, and Miramonte.
Clayton Valley won seven of its final nine but was swept by Northgate. The Eagles' best wins were splitting with College Park and Concord.
Las Lomas has won seven of its last 10, taken two of three meetings with Dublin, and also has wins over Dougherty Valley (split) and
Acalanes (twice) in league.
Washington is the most fascinating case in the field. The Huskies don’t have a great record but own a 6-3 mark versus Division II opponents
and this includes wins over Maria Carrillo and Windsor. The Huskies have bad losses to Kennedy and American.
On paper, Maria Carrillo may have a case for a #4 or #5 seed but the big question is if the loss to Washington will affect the Pumas'
seeding. The Pumas split the season series with Ukiah and swept Casa Grande.
Probable #9-#13 seeds
If the committee drops Washington, one of these teams could grab an eighth seed.
Casa Grande has qualified and does own an impressive win over Montgomery but did little in the non-league. The Gauchos and Ukiah
tied in the league standings but we give Casa the higher seed because of the win over Monty.
Ukiah split with Casa Grande and Windsor. The Wildcats don’t have many good wins outside of league and dropped their final three games.
Windsor qualified with a .500 record, owns a non-league win over Northgate, and split its two games with Casa.
Dublin was 4-2 versus Division II opponents and the Gaels own wins over Livermore and Northgate.
Redwood was 9-5 in the MCAL and its most impressive win was over Drake, a probable top-four seed in Division III.
Final three teams in the field?
Northgate has qualified and swept Clayton Valley but is just 4-9 versus Division II teams, including losses to Windsor and Maria Carrillo.
Livermore is 4-1 versus Division II opponents and owns a solid early season win over Liberty but hasn’t defeated any potential Division II
playoff teams.
Arroyo helped itself with a win over Piedmont, is 6-3 versus Division II teams, has a victory over Northgate, and appears to be the best
of the bubble teams.
DIVISION III:
The top four to six seeds should be easy but the remaining seeds are complicated because of a discrepancy in records and a lack of head-to-head
results.
Bishop O’Dowd is the best team in Northern California and the heavy favorite to win its third straight NCS Division III crown.
El Cerrito may be the second-best team in Northern California but is in the unfortunate position of being in the same division as O’Dowd.
Top four seeds
O’Dowd played a difficult non-league schedule and dominated every Northern California team that was in its path.
El Cerrito, after a regular season TCAL title, should still be the second seed even with the upset loss to Salesian in the TCAL semifinals.
Campolindo won the DFAL with ease and owns impressive non-league wins over Newark Memorial, Burlingame, Freedom, and Castro Valley.
Drake won the MCAL but was upset by San Marin in the league playoffs. The Pirates should still be the fourth seed with wins over
Acalanes, Pinole Valley, Hercules, and Branson (twice).
DFAL teams in fifth and sixth spots
Acalanes completed a sweep of Miramonte in the season finale and that appears to give the Dons the fifth seed. The Dons own a win over
Hercules as well victories versus Encinal, Analy, and San Marin.
Miramonte did finish higher than the Dons in the league standings and we’ll see if that carries more weight than the two head-to-head
losses. The Mats have a non-league win over Hercules.
Four teams hoping for 7th and 8th seeds
Pinole Valley owns wins over San Marin, Salesian, and St. Pat’s. The Spartans are probably one of the top six or seven teams in the
Division but have a lack of wins over the Division III field.
Hercules suffered a loss to Albany and tied for the TCAL Stone regular season title but has wins over Analy and Encinal, and losses
to Acalanes, Drake, and Miramonte.
Analy is a league champion and swept Elsie Allen and won two of three games with Piner but doesn’t own many impressive wins to earn a high seed.
Encinal, the WACC Shoreline titlists, has losses to Acalanes, Hercules, and San Marin.
Seven teams fighting for six spots
San Rafael owns wins over Elsie Allen and San Marin but did split a couple of one-point games with Tamalpais, has a recent loss
to Terra Linda, and dropped its final three games.
San Marin finished at .500 after winning five straight before a loss to Branson in the MCAL title game. The Mustangs beat Marin
Catholic and Drake in the league tourney, took two of three versus Novato, and topped Encinal. The Mustangs have losses to Pinole,
Acalanes, and Analy.
Novato hammered Elsie Allen, beat Piner, Albany, and dropped two of three games with San Marin.
Piner beat Analy once in three tries and has decent wins over Windsor and San Lorenzo.
Albany really helped itself with the win over Hercules and has a great record but a soft schedule and a loss to Novato.
Elsie Allen has a good record but a lack of quality wins. Could the Lobos miss the playoffs with a 18-8 record?
San Lorenzo is certainly one of the top 16 teams in the Division but has a loss to Piner that could hurt its chances. We’re guessing
the 13-13 Rebels just miss the playoffs.
Bubble burst?
Del Norte is 10-9 and eligible. The Warriors lack quality wins.
Eureka is 12-13 and eligible but probably not a strong enough body of work.
Sonoma Valley is 8-18 and qualified but the record likely won’t be good enough.
DIVISION IV:
There are four teams who appear to be the best in the NCS Division IV field and it appears the best decision the committee could make would
be to not let St. Patrick-St. Vincent, Moreau Catholic, St. Mary’s, and Salesian meet one another until the semifinals.
This division is very difficult to predict because of multiple league champions that have played soft schedules.
Cardinal Newman and Marin Catholic will also have a say in the semifinal berths.
Top four seeds
Three-time NCS champion Salesian has somehow put itself in a position to be the top seed. The Pride pulled off a big upset over El
Cerrito in the TCAL semifinals, which is the best win of anybody in the Division IV field. Salesian also swept the season series with
St. Mary’s and had the toughest schedule of eligible teams. It could be a lower seed, though, because it was swept by St. Pat’s.
Moreau Catholic has few games versus Division IV teams but has good wins over Marin Catholic, Half Moon Bay, and Folsom, which is
regarded as the second-best team in the Sac-Joaquin Section. The Mariners also nearly knocked off Newark Memorial.
Fortuna hasn’t played the schedule the other top teams have played but won league, won 15 in a row, and has four wins over Arcata and
a win over Cloverdale but little interaction with Division IV.
In the tough TCAL Rock, St. Pat’s finished tied for third in the regular season, swept Salesian, and split with St. Mary’s this season.
League champs shape #5-#9 seeds
Cardinal Newman hasn’t played the Division IV field but has a strong resume.
St. Mary’s split its two games with St. Pat’s and also owns wins over Castro Valley and Sacred Heart Prep. It appears to be the
fourth strongest resume in the field but its difficult to see a seed higher than the sixth spot.
Roseland has a very good win over Willits but a loss to Clear Lake.
Willits won the league title and has wins in the non-league over Piedmont and Maria Carrillo, but a loss to Roseland should prevent it from
a top-eight seed.
Marin Catholic has been competitive in losses to top teams such as St. Joe’s and St. Ignatius this season but may lose out in a numbers
game so league champions can get home games.
Final seven seeds could go multiple way
Gateway won the BCL-Central and should get a home game.
Middletown is 2-1 vs. Clear Lake, 2-1 vs. Kelseyville, and also has losses to Willits and Cloverdale.
Lick-Wilmerding has qualified and owns a win over Piedmont and a loss to Berean Christian.
Piedmont has wins over Cloverdale and Gateway and a loss to Lick-Wilmerding.
Cloverdale has qualified and has wins over Middletown and Kelseyville. The Eagles' losses include Willits (twice), Fortuna, and Piedmont.
Clear Lake is 3-1 vs. Kelseyville, 1-2 vs. Middletown, has a win over Roseland and split with Cloverdale, plus two losses to Willits.
Kelseyville is qualified but that might not be enough to be selected. The Knights are 1-3 versus Clear Lake, 1-3 versus Middletown,
and also have losses to Cloverdale and Arcata.
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