Prep2Prep CCS Playoff Projections
UPDATED 11/16/2014, 8:20 PM
ANOTHER UPDATE: It has come to our attention that a significant ruling will need to take place during Sunday's Central Coast Section meeting regarding - oddly enough -
a team that is not even involved in the CCS playoffs.
By most measures, Mission-San Francisco has won the Academic League title and qualifies as an "A" league team based on its 7-3 overall record. However, the San Francisco
Section holds a playoff at the end of the season and it is unclear whether Mission will be recognized as a league champion by CCS.
This has a major bearing on the brackets. If Mission is ruled to be a league champ, Menlo would have 18.5 points and earn the fourth and final automatic bid from the
PAL-Bay Division. If not, Menlo would drop to 17.5 and the fourth PAL-Bay spot would be awarded to Menlo-Atherton.
To further complicate matters, Menlo-Atherton would be slotted into Division I based on its enrollment. Menlo is definitely a Division IV school, so this exchange would
cause a domino effect in the brackets. Wilcox would move from Division I to Division II, Pioneer from Division II to Division III and Live Oak from Division III to
Division IV.
We are working on gathering confirmation from the CCS office as of Saturday night, but no ruling can be considered official until the actual seeding meeting Sunday morning.
This will obviously be a major point of contention in the proceedings, so as a service to our readers, we will present alternate brackets assuming Menlo-Atherton in
the field at the expense of Menlo. Please stay tuned to our Twitter feed @Prep2PrepSports for further updates.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Obviously the Serra win over Bellarmine had a major impact on the Open Division as well as Division II. We can now place Serra in the Open
Division, which causes a major seeding shift.
FRIDAY RECAP:
Wow, what just happened? We knew the final Friday of the Central Coast Section regular season was going to be wild but had no idea it was going to be like
this.
Half Moon Bay rallied with a 30-point fourth quarter to secure a spot in the playoffs with a 49-48 win over Terra Nova. Homestead stunned Fremont, handing
the Firebirds their first loss of the season, 38-12 and putting a scare in their supporters who need assurance that their team will still win the tie-breaker and
reach the playoffs.
Leland and Santa Teresa went down to the wire with Leland pulling out a 28-21 victory in a game with major playoff implications. Silver Creek rallied from
a two-touchdown deficit and scored in the final minute to force overtime. The Raiders then secured their place in the playoffs with a 37-34 OT win over
a gallant Lincoln squad.
And that's not even mentioning Oak Grove snapping Pioneer's eight-game winning streak with an impressive 14-6 road victory to earn a spot in the Open Division
playoffs and leaving Pioneer in limbo with a shot at an Open at-large berth. Oh yeah, and Piedmont Hills beat Willow Glen, 59-55 - sure, both teams were
headed to CCS anyway, but that sounded like a fun night in San Jose.
There's more: Westmont scored the game's final 10 points to foil Sobrato's playoff hopes with a 23-19 victory. Mt. Pleasant received a surprising scare from
Prospect before posting a wild 48-44 win to keep its at-large hopes alive. And Saratoga knocked off Palo Alto, 41-33, in a de facto elimination game.
Whew.
By our calculations - and again we remind everyone that they are based on the best information we have available - Sobrato's loss opened the door for Mt. Pleasant
to snag one of the final at-large playoff spots. Of the teams playing Saturday, North Monterey County is the only team with even a remote chance of qualifying
for the playoffs, but based on our projections, even a win would leave the Condors with just 18 points - not enough for an at-large spot.
The auto bids from the BVAL-MH were decided in dramatic fashion as mentioned earlier with Piedmont Hills beating Willow Glen and Leland knocking off Santa
Teresa. ST also benefitted from Sobrato's defeat, as we now have the Saints - along with Mt. Pleasant - receiving the final bid.
Based on our calculations, Menlo barely squeezes in as the fourth automatic team from the PAL-Bay based on CCS points (18.5-18 over Menlo-Atherton).
Valley Christian assured itself at least a tie for first in the WCAL so we have awarded the Warriors the points for a half-title. Serra defeated
Bellarmine Saturday to become the other co-champ.
For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click
here. An important point to note is that while
there is no .500 requirement as in other sports, no more than six teams can qualify for the playoffs from the same division.
ASSUMPTION 1: in the case of ties to determine automatic qualifiers, we went with the team with the higher CCS point total except in a few
cases noted below.
ASSUMPTION 2: for non-CCS teams, we projected their win total based on their current record to determine their classification (A, B, C).
ASSUMPTION 3: games that have not yet been played are included in the point totals (and counted as losses).
NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.
OPEN DIVISION: The five winners of the "A" and "A+" leagues are automatically placed in the Open Division. The
remaining three teams in the Open bracket are comprised of the top three CCS point-getters among "A" and "A+" league teams. The top
four division winners by CCS point total are awarded the top 4 seeds, so it is not possible for two teams from the same division to be
seeded in the top 4.
In the first round, teams from the same division cannot face each other, so seedings are adjusted to avoid such
first-round matchups. For instance, if teams from the WCAL are seeded second and seventh, then the seventh-seeded team will drop down to
No. 8 and face the No. 1 seed.
The bylaw that ensures top four seeds to be the four highest "A" league point totals has caused a major shift in the seedings. Despite
owning the highest CCS point total, we project Valley Christian as the No. 6 seed. Serra (28.5) edges Oak Grove (28) for the No. 4
seed, which means the Eagles have to travel to No. 1 Sacred Heart Prep in the first round instead of getting a home game.
Serra's win over Bellarmine bumps Pioneer from the Open Division, which might not be a bad thing for the Mustangs, who would have been
matched up with Valley Christian. The Warriors defeated the Mustangs 55-0 in the season opener.
Palma made sure of its place in the Open with a win over Alvarez. Salinas drops back to Division I.
DIVISION I: Automatic bids are awarded to the top two finishers in all divisions and, as mentioned earlier, no more than
six teams can qualify from the same division.
The remaining bids are awarded to the highest CCS point totals. once the 32 teams are established, they are ranked according to enrollment,
with the top eight enrollments placed in Division I, the next eight in Division II and so on through Division IV.
We have the top three seeds coming from the MBL-Gabilan after Palma's win over Alvarez bumped Salinas back to Division I. Alvarez wins the
tie-breaker over San Benito by head-to-head result. Palo Alto's
loss to Saratoga opened up a spot for Santa Teresa, despite its loss to Leland Friday night.
Wilcox (1,921) is the lowest enrollment schools in Division I so could land in Division II.
DIVISION II:
Serra's win over Bellarmine means that Pioneer replaces the Padres in Division II by our estimation. This caused a three-way tie for the No. 1
seed in Division II among St. Francis, Mitty and Pioneer.
In head-to-head competition among the three teams, St. Francis beat Mitty so the Lancers would get the No. 1 seed. Mitty and Pioneer did
not play each other and both lost to Valley Christian so a coin flip would be needed to settle that tie.
This could create an interesting situation because we currently have BVAL-MH teams seeded No. 6 and No. 7. If the committee decided
to propose that Pioneer be awarded the No. 2 seed to avoid two teams having to move, that could be taken under consideration. We have Leland
projected at No. 6 and Willow Glen at No. 7. Pioneer could not play either of those teams in the first round, so they would each have
to drop a spot with No. 8 Mt. Pleasant moving up two spots to No. 6. For now, we will assume Pioneer at No. 2, which would require
only a swap between No. 7 Willow Glen and No. 8 Mt. Pleasant.
If it works out that way - no disrespect to Mt. Pleasant - Pioneer would go from potentially traveling to play the WCAL co-champ Valley Christian, the team with
the highest point total in CCS, to hosting the Cardinals, the second-place team from the BVAL-West Valley.
We also had a tie for the No. 4 and No. 5 seed also, which is important because it determines who hosts the first-round matchup between
Christopher and Westmont. We have Christopher winning the tiebreaker based on a better record against common opponents. The Cougars
went 2-0 against Live Oak and Sobrato while Westmont went 1-1.
Leland (1,802) and Christopher (1,788) are the highest enrollment schools in Division II so they could find themselves in Division I. Similarly,
Westmont (1,570) and Pioneer (1,564) are the smallest enrollment school and could land in Division III.
DIVISION III:
The latest shakeup has St. Ignatius back in Division III, where it usually competes. Monterey and Burlingame both won Saturday and are now
expected to host first-round games.
Saratoga secured its spot in Division III with a dramatic victory over Palo Alto in what amounted to a CCS play-in game. There is a good chance
Aragon squandered its chance for a home game with its loss to Hillsdale.
St. Ignatius (1,467) and Aragon (1,467) are the highest enrollment schools in Division III - we are not sure how CCS would break that tie if
it comes to that (probably a coin flip); Live Oak (1,120) is the lowest.
DIVISION IV:
We still have the same eight teams in Division IV with Menlo projected to squeak in by 0.5 point. Half Moon Bay's dramatic come-from-behind win over Terra Nova
probably cost the Tigers a home game while vaulting the Cougars to the No. 2 seed.
And would you believe we are projecting a rematch between Terra Nova and Half Moon Bay after their sensational 49-48 extravaganza Friday night?!?
We had a tie for the No. 2 seed between Half Moon Bay and Monte Vista Christian. Both teams beat Gilroy so we would need a coin flip. HMB won the Prep2Prep
virtual coin flip and the No. 2 seed.
Pacific Grove's win over Carmel for the MTAL title pushes the Breakers up from No. 8 to No. 4 and we expect they will get to host a first-round game as a result.
Terra Nova (1,079) is the highest enrollment school in Division IV.
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