This is a look at the CCS Softball Playoff Projections based on the latest
information available to us through the end of the regular season. A quick summary of how the teams are selected is below.
First a quick overview: a total of 39 teams spread out over three enrollment-based divisions of 13 teams each qualify for the CCS
Softball Playoffs. Of the 39, 28 receive automatic bids based on their position in their league standings as follows: BVAL (6), PAL (4),
SCVAL (4), MBL (4), MTAL (3), WBAL (3), WCAL (2) and SCCAL (2).
A couple of changes have had yet another profound impact on the final projections. Both come from the Blossom Valley Athletic League. First, there is a
clause in the bylaws that states that if the fourth-place team in the Mt. Hamilton Division has at least a .500 overall record, then the sixth
automatic bid from the BVAL is shifted to the Santa Teresa Division. That means Oak Grove is an automatic qualifier.
Because Mt. Pleasant - the fourth-place team in the BVAL - will easily make it on points, a team is bounced off the bubble. Also the inclusion of Oak
Grove in the field means Mitty is no longer in Division I and the potential showdown between the top two teams in CCS - Mitty and Pioneer - is in play in Division II.
Also Santa Teresa won its final two games of the season to sneak into the field. This is bad news for teams like Saratoga and Capuchino.
Sobrato won its final three games to take the BVAL-Santa Teresa Division in a tiebreaker against Oak Grove, which appears to fall just short of the cutoff point
total for the playoffs. Capuchino needed - and got - a crucial 7-0 victory over Aragon to meet the .500 requirement and edge in over Aptos by 0.005 points according
to our calculations.
There were two league playoffs that were decided Friday. Stevenson defeated Trinity Christian in the MTAL. In the WBAL, we did not receive a result so assumed
Pinewood in over Woodside Priory.
In selecting the 28 automatics, we ran across some other tiebreaker situations: Monta Vista gets the nod over Mountain View as the automatic qualifier from
the SCVAL-El Camino Division by virtue of run differential in the two head-to-head matchups. It's purely academic because both teams will get in easily.
There was a four-way tie for the third automatic berth from the PAL-Bay Division. Based on the PAL bylaws, Burlingame (4-2) emerges as the winner based on
its performance against the other three teams involved in the tie: Woodside, Half Moon Bay and Capuchino. Woodside will get in easily no matter what, but
this leaves Capuchino and Half Moon Bay on the bubble. In fact, we have Cap as one of the final teams in the field and Half Moon Bay in.
We received clarification from the Academic Division of the San Francisco Section that Lowell is declared the league champion. This impacted several teams' point totals. Those
changes are reflected in the latest projections.
The remaining 11 at-large teams are selected based on a point system that awards teams based on results over the entire season, including
non-league play. To be considered for an at-large berth, teams must have at least a .500 record in either league play or overall. An average
number of points per game is calculated based on the number of total games played, or 17 if a team played fewer than 17 games.
Leagues within CCS are designated as "A" (highest), "B" and "C". Wins against "A" teams count for 3 points; wins against "B" teams count for
2.5; and wins against "C" teams count for 2. Strip off one point from those totals in cases of ties, and two points for losses to respectively
designed "A", "B" and "C" teams. Teams outside of CCS are considered "B" teams.
Finally, teams are awarded 2 points for playing an "A" league champion, 1.5 points for playing a "B" league champion and 1 point for playing
a "C" league champion. Teams also receive 5 points for being an "A" league champion, 4 for being a "B" league champion and 3 for being a
"C" league champion.
We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams
that compete in the Central Coast Section, but it is possible that there are slight schedule variations for some teams. These projections are
based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep
via
email or tweet us
@Prep2PrepSports.
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For more details on the CCS point system, please click
here.
Because the season is not quite over, we must make a few assumptions:
ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing
a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team,
based on the total number of games the team will play for the entire season.
ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently
tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded one point for playing a league champion; if a team played a team
that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team 0.33 points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the
same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.
ASSUMPTION 3: in the first round, league mates are not matched up whenever possible as per CCS rules.
ASSUMPTION 4: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large
teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in
first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration. If we cannot
determine a league's bylaws, we will assume they rank by order of CCS points.
ASSUMPTION 5: some leagues hold a postseason tournament to fill out their allotment of automatic qualifiers. In those instances, we assumed
the team(s) with the highest CCS point totals will receive the automatic bid.
NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.
DIVISION I: Thirty-nine teams qualify for the CCS playoffs, with the top 13 schools by enrollment placed in Division I.
Los Gatos (1,875) and Mountain View (1,837) are the smallest enrollment schools in Division I so they could drop to Division II.
DIVISION II: After the 13 teams with the highest enrollment are placed in Division I, the next 13 teams by enrollment are
placed in Division II.
Woodside (1,819) and Mitty (1,744) are the highest enrollment schools in Division II; Hillsdale (1,379) and Burlingame (1,342) are the lowest.
DIVISION III: Finally, the remaining 13 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division III.
Monterey (1,243) and Mills (1,236) are the highest enrollment schools in Division III.
As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 11 at-large teams included in the complete field of 39 CCS playoff teams. Gilroy has enough points to qualify but does
not meet the .500 requirement.
Here's a brief look at
the those 11 at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.
