P2P Baseball CCS Playoff Projections

Based on the latest information presented to Prep2Prep through games of May 11 - the final day of the season - we are releasing our projections for the 2019 Central Coast Section baseball playoff tournaments. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section, but it is possible that there are slight schedule variations for some teams.

For this projection, we look at all the playoff contenders based on their chances of advancing to the playoffs.

BVAL-Mount Hamilton

LOCKS (6): Leigh, Leland, Santa Teresa, Branham, Live Oak, Pioneer

NEAR LOCKS (1): Willow Glen

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (1): Westmont

COMMENT: Technically, Willow Glen is on the bubble, but we think the Rams are safe as one of the final teams in the field.

BVAL-Santa Teresa

LOCKS (2): Ann Sobrato, Piedmont Hills

NEAR LOCKS (1): Oak Grove

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (5): Lincoln, Silver Creek, Gunderson, Prospect, Independence

COMMENT: The two automatic bids are locked in and Oak Grove is on the good side of the bubble at the moment.

BVAL-West Valley

LOCKS (1): Evergreen Valley

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (7): Mt. Pleasant, Del Mar, Overfelt, San Jose, James Lick, Andrew Hill, Yerba Buena

COMMENT: Evergreen Valley has wrapped up the division's automatic and only bid to the CCS playoffs.

PAL-Bay

LOCKS (5): Menlo, Carlmont, The King's Academy, Burlingame, Capuchino

NEAR LOCKS (1): Hillsdale

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (2): Sacred Heart Prep, Terra Nova

COMMENT: All the while we didn't expect Sacred Heart Prep to fail to meet the .500 requirement and not finish with one of the five PAL-Bay automatic bids, but that is precisely what happened and unless our records are inaccurate, the Gators are out. Hillsdale is in good position for an at-large bid after its season-saving win at SHP Friday.

PAL-Ocean

LOCKS (3): Aragon, Half Moon Bay, Menlo-Atherton

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (5): Woodside, Sequoia, San Mateo, El Camino, Mills

COMMENT: Menlo-Atherton defeated Jefferson in a one-game playoff to join automatic qualifiers Aragon and Half Moon Bay in the CCS field.

PAL-Lake

LOCKS (0): None

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (5): Jefferson, Harker, South San Francisco, Crystal Springs Uplands, Westmoor

COMMENT: Jefferson lost to Menlo-Atherton in a one-game playoff, leaving the PAL-Lake with no CCS playoff teams.

PCAL-Gabilan

LOCKS (6): Monterey, San Benito, Christopher, Salinas, Monte Vista Christian, Palma

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (2): Gilroy, St. Francis SCP

COMMENT: The PCAL-Gabilan gets five automatic bids and the sixth-place finisher, Palma, defeated Alisal, the third-place team from the PCAL-Mission, in a one-game playoff for the final automatic spot.

PCAL-Mission

LOCKS (2): Pacific Grove, Carmel

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (6): Alisal, Soledad, Alvarez, North Salinas, King City, Watsonville

COMMENT: Pacific Grove and Carmel are locked into the two automatic bids. Alisal lost its chance at an automatic berth by losing to Palma, but still has an outside chance at an at-large bid. We have Alisal as one of the first teams out in this projection.

PCAL-Cypress

LOCKS (1): Greenfield

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (6): North Monterey County, Gonzales, Seaside, Stevenson, Trinity Christian, Pajaro Valley

COMMENT: This will be a one-bid league and by our records that belongs to Greenfield.

PSAL-North

LOCKS (1): Summit Shasta

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (4): Summit Prep, Design Tech, Kehillah Jewish, Pacific Bay Christian

COMMENT: Summit Shasta finished as undefeated league champ.

PSAL-South

LOCKS (1): Thomas More

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (5): Pinewood, North Valley Baptist, Latino College Prep, KIPP SJ Collegiate, DCP-Alum Rock

COMMENT: Thomas More and Pinewood tied for the PSAL-South championship and automatic bid into the tournament. We believe Thomas More holds the tiebreaker.

SCCAL

LOCKS (3): Santa Cruz, Aptos, Scotts Valley

NEAR LOCKS (1): Harbor

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (2): San Lorenzo Valley, Soquel

COMMENT: Santa Cruz and Aptos are assured of two of the three automatic bids. Harbor is in an interesting spot. At the moment, the Pirates are tied with Hillsdale for the final at-large bid. Despite losing 12-11 to Scotts Valley in the final game of the regular season, we have Harbor as one of the last teams in.

SCVAL-De Anza

LOCKS (5): Los Altos, Los Gatos, Wilcox, Palo Alto, Mountain View

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (3): Homestead, Cupertino, Saratoga

COMMENT: Even though there are just four automatic bids, the top 5 will all have more than enough points to qualify as an at-large team. Homestead is playoff-eligible, but won't have enough points to qualify.

SCVAL-El Camino

LOCKS (2): Gunn, Santa Clara

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (4): Monta Vista, Milpitas, Fremont, Lynbroook

COMMENT: This one is about as straightforward as it gets - two automatic berths, both clinched.

WCAL

LOCKS (5): Valley Christian, Serra, Archbishop Mitty, Bellarmine, Saint Francis

NEAR LOCKS (1): Saint Ignatius

BUBBLE (0): Nne

OUT (2): Sacred Heart Cathedral, Archbishop Riordan

COMMENT: Saint Ignatius had a few breaks go its way and now appears safe as one of the final at-large teams into the field.

These projections are based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep via email or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports. You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.

For more details on the CCS point system, please click here.

Here's a quick overview of the selection process: a total of 48 teams spread out over an 8-team Open Division and three enrollment-based divisions of 16, 16 and 8 teams, respectively, make up the field for the CCS Baseball Playoffs. Of the 48, 41 receive automatic bids based on their position in their league standings as follows: BVAL (8), PAL (8), SCVAL (6), PCAL (9), WCAL (5), SCCAL (3), and PSAL (2).

The remaining seven at-large teams are selected based on a point system that awards teams based on results over the course of the last 22 games a team plays. One caveat: all league games must be included among the 22, so that if a team plays a league game that is not among its last 22 games, that league game is substituted in for the earliest played non-league game.

To be considered for an at-large berth, teams must have at least a .500 record in any one of the following: a) in league; b) in non-league; c) overall; d) over the last 22 games that are included in the CCS point calculation.

Leagues within CCS are designated as "A" (highest), "B" and "C". Wins against "A" teams count for 3 points; wins against "B" teams count for 2.5; and wins against "C" teams count for 2. Strip off one point from those totals in cases of ties, and two points for losses to respectively designed "A", "B" and "C" teams.

Teams outside of CCS are considered "B" teams unless they achieve a winning percentage of .700 or greater; in which case, they are considered "A" teams.

Finally, teams are awarded 2 points for playing an "A" league champion, 1.5 points for playing a "B" league champion and 1 point for playing a "C" league champion. This only applies to games against CCS teams - there is no bonus for playing league champs outside of CCS.

There is also a CCS bylaw that states that teams only get credit for playing a divisional league champion twice during league play. So for teams that play each other three times during the regular-season round robin, we must disregard the bonus points for the third meeting against the prospective league champ. This affects the following leagues: PCAL-Gabilan, PCAL-Mission, PAL-Lake and SCVAL-El Camino.

Teams also receive 8 points for being an "A" league champion, 7 for being a "B" league champion and 6 for being a "C" league champion.

There is an eight-team Open Division tournament for the top teams in the section. The CCS selection committee determines these eight teams, but we expect that the league champs of the six "A" divisions - BVAL-MH, PCAL-Gabilan, PAL-Bay, SCCAL, SCVAL-DA and WCAL - will be entered into this tournament. The committee can then choose the remaining two teams.

Because the season is not over, we must make a few assumptions:

ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team.

ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded one point for playing a league champion; if a team played a team that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team 0.33 points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.

ASSUMPTION 3: some leagues hold a postseason tournament or playoff to fill out their allotment of automatic qualifiers. In those instances, we assumed the team(s) with the highest CCS point totals will receive the automatic bid.

ASSUMPTION 4: by CCS rules, a team must have at least a .500 record in league, overall or in the 22 games under consideration for its CCS point total. In the case of league and overall records, we simply took the team's record as of this date; for the 22-game consideration, we looked at the record for the games within the 22 that have already been played.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.

OPEN DIVISION: Forty-eight teams qualify for the CCS playoffs. After the 8 teams are selected for the Open Division, the rest of the field is placed into the playoff field based on enrollment; the top 16 enrollment schools in Division I, the next 16 in Division II and the last 8 in Division III.

There was a change in the bylaws this year allowing the selection committee full latitude to choose the 8 Open teams. We are completely theorizing about how the committee will respond.

There are going to be some difficult decisions regarding the Open Division. Valley Christian, the regular-season and WCAL tournament champ, is obviously in. Los Gatos, the regular-season champ in the SCVAL-De Anza, is also a lock. Among the remaining "A" league champs - Leigh (BVAL-MH), Menlo/Carlmont (PAL-Bay), Santa Cruz and Monterey - we believe that only Santa Cruz and Monterey will merit consideration.

Teams that didn't win their respective leagues but are still strong contenders include: San Benito (PCAL-Gabilan), Los Altos (SCVAL-DA), Serra (WCAL), Mitty (WCAL), Saint Francis (WCAL) and Bellarmine (WCAL). Despite losing to Valley Christian in the WCAL Tournament championship, Mitty should be in along with Serra.

That leave four spots among the following: Monterey, San Benito, Santa Cruz, Los Altos, Wilcox, Saint Francis and Bellarmine.

Monterey won its final seven games to capture the PCAL-Gabilan title but is just 1-5 agaainst non-league competition. The Toreadores actually lost their first five games - four against teams from the BVAL-MH.

San Benito stumbled down the stretch, dropping three of its final seven games to finish second in the PCAL-Gabilan. The Haybalers went 5-0 out of league, but not against the toughest competition in CCS. Santa Cruz remains unbeaten in the SCCAL but is 0-3 against WCAL teams (Saint Francis, Mitty, Valley Christian), though two of those losses were 1-0.

Los Altos is another strong contender, having gone 10-1 outside of league, mostly dominating BVAL-MH competition. The Eagles also split the season series against league champ Los Gatos, though they were bounced in the SCVAL tournament by Wilcox. Speaking of the Chargers, they finished third in the SCVAL-DA during the regular season, but have a shot at the tournament title this week against Palo Alto. Wilcox also owns a win over Mitty.

Saint Francis knocked Bellarmine out of the WCAL playoffs, so would probably get the edge if it came down to those two teams after they tied for third in the WCAL along with Mitty. However, working against the Lancers is a 3-9 record in their last 12.

So it is a very difficult chore for the committee, but at this pooint we believe it will select Santa Cruz, Saint Francis and Bellarmine to join Valley Christian, Los Gatos, Serra and Mitty. In our opinion, the final spot will come down to San Benito vs. Wilcox. San Benito closed out the season with a non-league win over Sacred Heart Prep while Wilcox lost to Palo Alto in the SCVAL championship game. It is a very close call, but we think the committee will select San Benito.

We will use CCS point totals as a guide for the seedings, but the committee has full discretion for that as well. We believe the committee will try to avoid too many all-WCAL matchups in the first round.

San Benito leads the MBL-Gabilan and is in line for a trip to the Open Division playoffs.

(1) VALLEY CHRISTIAN (71.5)	#1 vs. #8 Winner	Semifinals	Open Div. Champ
(8) Bellarmine College Prep (50.5)
(4) SERRA (57)	#4 vs. #5 Winner
(5) San Benito (58)
(3) LOS GATOS (69.5)	#3 vs. #6 Winner	Semifinals
(6) Archbishop Mitty (55)
(2) SANTA CRUZ (71.5)	#2 vs. #7 Winner
(7) St. Francis (48)

DIVISION I: After the 8 Open Division teams are selected, the next 16 teams by enrollment are placed in Division I.

The two smallest schools in Division I right now are Leigh (1,776) and Oak Grove (1,769) - if things break differently, they could wind up in Division II.

Bellarmine is projected as the No. 1 seed in Division I.

(1) LEIGH (66.5)
(16) Menlo-Atherton (35)
(8) SALINAS (52)
(9) Branham (51)
(5) LELAND (59.25)
(12) Santa Clara (46.25)
(4) PALO ALTO (60.25)
(13) Gunn (46.25)
(6) SANTA TERESA (55)
(11) Oak Grove (48.5)
(3) LOS ALTOS (60.5)
(14) Piedmont Hills (41)
(7) CARLMONT (54)
(10) Mountain View (51)
(2) WILCOX (61.25)
(15) Evergreen Valley (38)

DIVISION II: The next 16 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division II.

Willow Glen (1,736) and Aragon (1,695) are the highest enrollment schools in Division II; Carmel (859) and Harbor (847) are the lowest.

We had to move Capuchino up one spot to avoid a first-round matchup against league rival Burlingame.

If Sacred Heart Cathedral does not opt up, it would be a favorite in Division II. (Brandon Jew/Prep2Prep)

(1) MONTEREY (64)
(16) Greenfield (45)
(8) HALF MOON BAY (51.25)
(9) Live Oak (50.5)
(5) ARAGON (53.75)
(12) St. Ignatius (47)
(4) ANN SOBRATO (54)
(13) Willow Glen (46)
(6) BURLINGAME (51.5)
(11) Pioneer (48.5)
(3) CHRISTOPHER (54)
(14) Harbor (46)
(7) CARMEL (51.5)
(10) Capuchino (47.5)
(2) APTOS (59)
(15) Hillsdale (46)

DIVISION III: Finally, the last 8 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division III.

Scotts Valley (8181) and Palma (768) are the highest enrollment schools in Division III.

Menlo is projected as the No. 2 seed in Division III. (Menlo Athletics)

(1) PACIFIC GROVE (57)	#1 vs. #8 Winner	Semifinals	Div. III Champ
(8) Summit Shasta (31.5)
(4) MONTE VISTA CHRISTIAN (49)	#4 vs. #5 Winner
(5) The King's Academy (48.5)
(3) SCOTTS VALLEY (49.5)	#3 vs. #6 Winner	Semifinals
(6) Palma (48)
(2) MENLO SCHOOL (52)	#2 vs. #7 Winner
(7) Thomas More (40)

As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 7 at-large teams included in the complete field of 48 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the last five teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now. This only includes team that meet the .500 eligibility requirement.