Our first installment of the boys basketball playoff projections breaks down exactly which teams should be in the field, which teams are likely in with some work to do, and which teams are fighting to get off the bubble, along with what they need to do in order to become eligible or gain a higher seed. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we have ranked the teams accordingly, and discussed the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
OPEN
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Bellarmine
2. St. Ignatius
3. St. Francis
4. Menlo-Atherton
5. Mitty
6. Palo Alto
7. Half Moon Bay
8. Palma
Comments: Bellarmine should be the consensus top seed, with its only loss coming out of the region, and wins over Menlo-Atherton, Palo Alto, and the rest of the WCAL. After that, each team can make an argument for a higher seed, and the next seven spots could really go in any order.
Half Moon Bay beat St. Ignatius in its season opener, but SI has a pair of wins over St. Francis, while HMB split the season series with Palma, lost to Menlo-Atherton, and has a really bad loss to Burlingame. M-A split its season series with Sequoia, and has wins over HMB and Palo Alto. Meanwhile, Mitty’s loss to Sacred Heart Cathedral will likely knock the Monarchs down a peg, despite the recent win over St. Ignatius and non-league wins over Moreau Catholic and Capital Christian.
Palo Alto has to be seeded beneath the three teams it lost to – Bellarmine, Menlo-Atherton, and Saint Francis. The Vikings’ loss on Tuesday to Los Gatos brings their spot into question, but the overall picture still looks good. They still hold a three-game lead over the Wildcats, and routed a Carlmont team which split with Sequoia, another team which could be considered for this field.
It would make sense for Palma and Half Moon Bay to be seeded next to each other, considering the series split between the two teams. Palma won handily in the first game, while HMB won by two in the second meeting. But winning the second time usually carries more weight, and Half Moon Bay’s schedule, plus the win over St. Ignatius, are more impressive than the rest of the slate for Palma, who fell to Los Gatos in their other non-league game against a quality opponent.
DIVISION I
Eligible: Sequoia, Los Gatos, Piedmont Hills, Independence, Evergreen Valley, Alisal, Salinas, Homestead, Santa Teresa, Alvarez, Cupertino, Silver Creek, Los Altos, Carlmont
Bubble: Wilcox
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Los Gatos
2. Sequoia
3. Piedmont Hills
4. Cupertino
5. Independence
6. Homestead
7. Los Altos
8. Santa Teresa
9. Carlmont
10. Alisal
11. Salinas
12. Alvarez
13. Evergreen Valley
14. Silver Creek
Comments: Sequoia and Los Gatos have a virtual stranglehold on the top two spots here, despite each having a bad loss on the resume. Sequoia has a win over Menlo-Atherton, but Los Gatos now boasts wins over Palma and Palo Alto. After that, Piedmont Hills looks good for the three seed, with wins over Santa Teresa, Independence, Evergreen Valley, and Silver Creek, though the Pirates still face both Independence and Evergreen Valley again this week.
Cupertino does have an early loss to Homestead, but also beat Independence, and has a win over Los Gatos, with one more game looming against the Wildcats. If they can sweep that series, they could jump up to the two seed. The Pioneers did split their season series with both Milpitas and Wilcox, but also swept Los Altos. Independence can improve its seeding this week against Piedmont Hills, but already has a win over Homestead, while splitting its season series against Evergreen Valley.
Homestead has the loss to Independence, but also wins over Cupertino and Los Altos. There is the bad loss to Oak Grove, but the Mustangs are also going for a season sweep of Lynbrook this week. Los Altos has a win over Los Gatos, and a double overtime loss to Palo Alto, but also losses to Homestead and Cupertino. Santa Teresa’s two losses to division opponents here are to Los Gatos and Piedmont Hills, with wins over Evergreen Valley and Carlmont. The Saints also have a win over Leigh, and could potentially get as high as the five seed, especially if they beat Sobrato this week.
We have Carlmont listed in the seedings right now, but the Scots need to beat Capuchino to qualify, and that is not a given. Carlmont has impressive wins over Sequoia and Alisal, but also lost to Santa Teresa, and is on a four-game losing streak. If the Scots do not beat Capuchino, they are not in the field.
Alisal is unbeaten in league, but has non-league losses to Sequoia and Carlmont, both by double digits. The Trojans also swept Alvarez, however. Salinas has a similar loss to Sequoia, and a very good win over Monterey, but split a pair of games with Alvarez, so the Cowboys have to go below Alisal.
Alvarez has the split with Salinas, while Evergreen Valley is in second place in its league, but was winless in non-league. That league slate, however, does include a win over Silver Creek. Their rematch this week will decide this final seeding.
Wilcox can still become eligible, but needs to beat Gunn to do so.
DIVISION II
Eligible: Leigh, Mountain View, Santa Clara, Leland, Lynbrook, Westmoor, Branham, San Mateo, Aragon, Westmont, Willow Glen, Gunn, Pioneer, Valley Christian, Serra, Woodside, North Salinas, Watsonville, Oak Grove
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Serra
2. Mountain View
3. Leigh
4. Valley Christian
5. Santa Clara
6. Lynbrook
7. Branham
8. Leland
9. Woodside
10. Aragon
11. San Mateo
12. Westmoor
13. Willow Glen
14. Gunn
15. Westmont
16. Pioneer
Comments: Serra beat Valley Christian in the first meeting between these teams, and has a strong non-league slate, including wins over Marin Catholic, Piedmont Hills, and Miramonte. Win again this week and they could go into the Open or receive the top seed here. Leigh is unbeaten in league, and has an early win over Valley Christian, which makes the Longhorns a strong candidate for one of the top seeds. One of their early losses, though, is to Mountain View, so the Spartans hold the head-to-head edge there.
Santa Clara and Lynbrook split meetings this year, but the Bruins won the second time around, which could carry more weight between two teams tied in the league standings. Branham has a big non-league win over Leland, swept Willow Glen, and won the second meeting against Westmont. Leland has a slew of victories over other Division 2 programs, beating San Mateo, Gunn, Westmont, and Pioneer.
Woodside has head-to-head wins over San Mateo and Aragon, plus a season sweep of Carlmont. Aragon split with San Mateo, winning the second meeting, while also picking up wins over Pioneer and Los Altos. San Mateo does head-to-head losses to the teams listed above them, but also has a quality resume which includes wins over Carlmont, Aragon, Santa Teresa, and Saratoga, plus a three-point loss to Menlo-Atherton. Westmoor could get seeded above San Mateo, and will be close, with wins over Pioneer and Carlmont.
Willow Glen took two of three games from Westmont this year, and also beat Oak Grove, while splitting with Cupertino. Gunn’s league record is suspect, but the schedule includes wins over Pioneer, Milpitas, Wilcox, and most importantly, Los Gatos. They did lose to Leland, but the Titans can possibly make an argument all the way up to the nine seed.
Westmont figures to get in the field on the strength of its splits with Willow Glen and Branham, but does not have much else on the resume. Pioneer, North Salinas, and Watsonville figure to compete for the final spot. North Salinas and Watsonville split their meetings. Pioneer is on a three-game winning streak, and has non-league wins over Harbor, Soquel, and Santa Cruz. Watsonville beat Harbor twice, but also lost to Santa Cruz, and that could provide Pioneer with the edge over both schools.
DIVISION III
Eligible: Monterey, Sobrato, Pajaro Valley, Aptos, Saratoga, Jefferson, North Monterey County, Gunderson, Capuchino, Hillsdale, Mt. Pleasant, Sacred Heart Cathedral, Riordan
Bubble: Soledad
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Sacred Heart Cathedral
2. Monterey
3. Aptos
4. Saratoga
5. Riordan
6. Sobrato
7. Jefferson
8. Gunderson
9. North Monterey County
10. Pajaro Valley
11. Capuchino
12. Hillsdale
13. Mt. Pleasant
Comments: Are we really predicting the second-to-last team in the WCAL to get awarded the top seed? Yes, if the committee follows its own seeding criteria. Consider the significant wins and strength of schedule. SHC has wins over 20-5 Pleasant Valley-Chico, Analy, Drake, Oak Ridge, Fremont-Oakland, and most importantly, a recent 13-point win over Mitty. They also lost in overtime to James Logan, a likely top four seed in the NCS Division 1 bracket. That is a pretty strong resume.
The one thing that could hold back SHC at the top seed is this week’s game with Riordan. The Crusaders did win the first meeting, but the overall slate is not nearly as strong. However, if they sweep the series, they will have earned a higher seed than the Fightin’ Irish.
Monterey has a head-to-head win over Aptos, and a perfect slate outside of league play. Aptos, meanwhile, was second in the SCCAL behind St. Francis-Watsonville, and has strong non-league wins over Sobrato and Westmont.
Saratoga has wins over Westmont and Branham, and a real big victory over Leigh, plus a series sweep against Lynbrook. Riordan will be a tough placement. Even if they split with SHC, that one win should count for something, along with quality non-league wins against Castro Valley and Tamalpais.
Sobrato slumped a bit last week, but has a season sweep over Gunderson, and a strong non-league win over St. Francis-CCC, though also the loss to Aptos. Jefferson also has a non-league win over Gunderson, to go with quality wins over San Mateo and Woodside.
The decision between Pajaro Valley and Capuchino is a tough one. PV has a stellar 8-2 record in league play, but lacks a signature win, and has a non-league loss to NMC, which places them below the Condors. Capuchino also lacks a signature non-league win, but has a sweep of Hillsdale to cement a seeding better than the Knights. Likewise, Mt. Pleasant lost to Hillsdale.
Soledad needs a split this week against Gonzales and Marina to be eligible, and beat both programs by double digits earlier in the season.
DIVISION IV
Eligible: Pacific Grove, Menlo, Monte Vista Christian, Carmel, King’s Academy, San Lorenzo Valley, Santa Cruz, Sacred Heart Prep, Harker
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Pacific Grove
2. Menlo
3. Monte Vista Christian
4. Carmel
5. King’s Academy
6. Santa Cruz
7. San Lorenzo Valley
8. Sacred Heart Prep
9. Harker
Comments: If Half Moon Bay and Palma do indeed get selected for the Open, that likely leaves this division with only nine teams eligible. Pacific Grove and Menlo appear to be a strong one-two punch at the top, with PG getting the edge based on its season sweep of Carmel, plus a non-league win over Milpitas and a three-point loss to Monterey.
MVC has a strong win over Salinas, though it could certainly use a win against Monterey or Salinas this week. The Mustangs also have strong non-league wins over Oakland and Santa Clara. Carmel, meanwhile, also has a strong argument for a top three seed, especially with a pair of wins over Stevenson.
TKA has a pair of wins over Harker, and a win over SHP, making the Knights a strong candidate for the five seed. Santa Cruz has a pair of wins over SLV, so the Cardinals will be seeded ahead of the Cougars. SHP has a win over Harker.
DIVISION V
Eligible: Oakwood, St. Francis-Watsonville, Alma Heights, Nueva, Mountain View Academy, Woodside Priory, Eastside College Prep, Thomas More, Trinity Christian, Stevenson, Jewish Community, Pinewood, North Valley Baptist, University Prep, Kehillah Jewish, KIPP Collegiate, Mid-Peninsula
Comments: Based on strength of schedule, St. Francis-Watsonville would appear to have a strong case for the top seed, after winning the SCCAL. Trinity Christian also figures to get a high seed, with a nine-point loss to St. Francis, a strong non-league schedule, a split with Oakwood, and a 31-point win over Alma Heights.
Likewise, Woodside Priory, Eastside College Prep, and Stevenson should also get high seeds based on strength of schedule. ECP swept Pinewood and University Prep, and added wins over Thomas More and Alma Heights. Woodside Priory split with Pinewood, but also has wins over ECP (they finish the regular season against each other) and Stevenson.
