Our second installment of the North Coast Section boys’ basketball playoff projections breaks down which teams should be in the field and which teams are still fighting to get in. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we have ranked the teams accordingly, and discussed the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
One disclaimer – there may be the possibility of other teams becoming eligible based on record against teams in their own division, but this would likely only affect one or two other teams. In the cases where there are 16 teams listed, there may be others on the bubble who may not currently be included based on what lies ahead on the schedule.
DIVISION I
There are currently 15 teams who seem assured of being eligible for the post-season, with three others on the brink of qualifying, each needing one victory. This means there could easily be two eligible teams left out when all is said and done.
Arroyo needs a split this week against San Lorenzo and Hayward, and beat San Lorenzo in the first meeting. Antioch and Freedom each need one win this week. Freedom has Heritage and Liberty, with its best shot appearing to be in the finale against Liberty, while Antioch has an uphill battle, facing Pittsburg and Heritage, though both games are at home. Foothill is in a win or go home scenario. If the Falcons beat Amador Valley, they make the EBAL tournament and get their league record above .500. If they lose, they won’t even qualify for the NCS playoffs.
Things are not any easier to sort out at the top, especially with Clayton Valley’s loss to Las Lomas, one that will almost certainly prevent the Eagles from being a league champion. But even though we have dropped Clayton Valley behind these other three teams in our rankings, we also recognize the importance of head-to-head results to the seeding committee. Due to that, we still have them forecast as the top seed, based on an 81-66 non-league win over Berkeley. Berkeley, Dublin, and Heritage are clustered in that order also based on head-to-head results, with Berkeley beating Dublin in the season opener, and the Gaels beating Heritage in overtime back in the Don Nelson Classic.
De La Salle swept the season series from Monte Vista and pulled out a triple-overtime win over Amador Valley to secure one of the top seeds in the upcoming EBAL tournament. The Spartans have quality wins over Pittsburg, Alameda, and St. Patrick-St. Vincent, leaving them in good position. We currently have Pittsburg, Freedom, Monte Vista, and Dougherty Valley listed in head-to-head order, plus Dougherty Valley has wins over both Liberty and Amador Valley. Amador Valley and Liberty are hard to sort out. We previously had Liberty in front based on a closer margin versus Dougherty, and they have identical won-loss results versus common opponents, but with Amador's triple-overtime loss to De La Salle, we have moved the Dons in front Liberty, especially with the likelihood of them making the EBAL tournament. This would also set up a pair of attractive first-round matchups, with a De La Salle-Amador rematch, and a Heritage-Liberty intra-district rivalry.
One of the most difficult teams to seed will be San Leandro. The Pirates are below .500 overall, but have a winning record in the WACC-Foothill. They also have an overtime win against Freedom, who beat Monte Vista, but bad losses to non-playoff teams such as San Ramon Valley and El Cerrito.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Clayton Valley
2. Berkeley
3. Dublin
4. Heritage
5. De La Salle
6. James Logan
7. College Park
8. Pittsburg
9. Freedom
10. Monte Vista
11. Dougherty Valley
12. Amador Valley
13. Liberty
14. San Leandro
15. Granada
16. Arroyo
DIVISION II
Another deep division, and the top eight could get really tough to sort out here, especially with the lack of head-to-head opportunities outside of league play. Also, it is tough to get a feel for how the committee will view losses to elite teams outside the section and outside the state. Last year, we thought Moreau was a lock for the two seed after its elite non-league schedule, only to see the Mariners bumped down to the four seed.
That being said, Bishop O’Dowd is a near-lock for the top seed. Las Lomas has been playing well all season, and after its win over Clayton Valley, has the inside track to both the DAL-Foothill title and the two seed. Moreau has a loss to Newark, but sits alone atop the MVAL right now. The Mariners need to beat Newark in the second meeting, however.
Further down, the committee will have a real difficult choice with where to place teams like Acalanes, who played well and notched quality wins outside of league, but has struggled in the rugged DAL-Foothill Division, aside from a big win over College Park this past week. The Dons, however, have a big non-league win over Newark Memorial, which could factor big into the seedings if Moreau beats Newark in their second meeting. If Newark sweeps Moreau, those two wins will carry more weight than the loss to Acalanes.
Washington has a good non-league win over Cardinal Newman early in the season, but also a more recent non-league loss to Tamalpais, who also lost to De Anza. Teams like De Anza and Northgate are unbeaten in league play, but play in lower divisions of their respective leagues. De Anza also has a non-league loss to Acalanes.
San Lorenzo has head-to-head wins over Northgate and Maria Carrillo, but a loss to De Anza. All three of those results should prove pivotal. Mission San Jose should be in based on its earlier win over Newark Memorial, which could leave eligible teams such as Maria Carrillo and Petaluma on the outside looking in. Northgate has a sparkling overall record, with 20 wins, but no true quality wins, with a victory over Mission San Jose being the best one on the board for the Broncos against Division II teams, though they also have a big win over Pittsburg.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Bishop O’Dowd
2. Las Lomas
3. Moreau Catholic
4. Alameda
5. Windsor
6. Montgomery
7. Cardinal Newman
8. Acalanes
9. Newark Memorial
10. De Anza
11. San Lorenzo
12. Redwood
13. Tamalpais
14. Northgate
15. Washington
16. Mission San Jose
DIVISION III
The easiest decision for a top seed might be here in Division III, where the top overall team in the section – Salesian – currently resides. There seems to be a big drop-off after the Pride, though Campolindo’s win over Clayton Valley has the Cougars in line for the two seed here.
Drake struggled against some strong competition in non-league play, but has flourished in the MCAL, and has quality wins over Piner and Miramonte. If Drake wins the MCAL tournament, where it is the top seed, the Pirates could have a strong case for the two seed. Piner is a game back in the SCL standings, but the Prospectors could find themselves with a top four seed in this bracket, especially with wins over Hercules and San Marin during non-league play.
As long as Alhambra beats Ygnacio Valley and Berean Christian this week, the Bulldogs will have a strong case for the five seed, with non-league wins over San Rafael, Pinole Valley, and Sonoma Valley. San Rafael, in turn, has a big win over Albany. Albany has wins over Pinole Valley and El Cerrito (twice), and plays in the elite TCAL-Rock Division, which means regular games against Salesian and St. Pat’s.
The newcomer to our projections this week is San Marin, which is below .500 overall and in league, but unless our calculations are wrong, finished above .500 against Division III opponents by virtue of their regular season ending win over San Rafael. The Mustangs also have wins over Hercules and Analy, plus a two-point loss to Piner and an early season win over Redwood.
Hercules has swept both meetings with Kennedy-Richmond, putting the Titans in position ahead of the Eagles. Pinole Valley also has key wins over Sonoma Valley and Encinal, and split the series with Kennedy, allowing the Spartans to become eligible.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Salesian
2. Campolindo
3. Drake
4. Piner
5. Alhambra
6. San Marin
7. San Rafael
8. Albany
9. Hercules
10. Pinole Valley
11. Kennedy-Richmond
12. Analy
13. Sonoma Valley
DIVISION IV
The records are almost irrelevant here, since the level of competition varies so widely from one team and one league to the next among Division IV contenders.
St. Joseph Notre Dame just paved its path to the top seed with a big win over St. Patrick-St. Vincent last weekend, and is a heavy favorite to win this week’s BCL-East tournament. The Pilots seem to be just rounding into form, after Cameron Ba’s extended absence from the court earlier this season due to injury and Saint Mary’s transfer Julian Vaughns having to wait until January to hit the court.
Other teams from those leagues are also down the list in terms of record, but have quality wins and close losses across the board – teams like Saint Mary’s, who could easily be in contention for a semifinal appearance and NorCal bid. Meanwhile, teams such as Roseland are unbeaten in league, but that should matter very little to the committee.
Healdsburg and Kelseyville are both on track to be league champions, but have little in the way of non-league victories to climb the ladder. Kelseyville, in fact, has losses to both Piedmont and McKinleyville, which is why we have the Knights down at the nine seed. McKinleyville also has a marquee win over Windsor.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. St. Joseph Notre Dame
2. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
3. Stuart Hall
4. Piedmont
5. Saint Mary’s
6. Lick-Wilmerding
7. Healdsburg
8. McKinleyville
9. Kelseyville
10. Middletown
11. Del Norte
12. Arcata
13. Roseland Prep
14. Gateway
15. Fortuna
DIVISION V
This much is clear in Division V – any result other than University and Branson meeting in the final will be a bit of a shocker, and these teams should certainly be the top two seeds.
Much like Division IV, there are teams here who have sparkling records, but have not faced any top 25-caliber competition. That means a team like Urban, which qualified at 13-13 overall, has a strong case for the three seed with wins over Redwood Christian and Berean Christian.
Following the top seeds, the rest could get murky here, thanks to the merry-go-round effect of teams beating each other. Redwood Christian and Cloverdale both own wins against Berean Christian. Cloverdale also has a pair of wins over Middletown and has split two games with Clear Lake, though the teams play again this week. Clear Lake also has a win over Sonoma Academy, but also a loss to St. Bernard’s. Berean Christian has a win over St. Bernard’s.
Head-Royce also has just a three-point loss to Berean Christian and split a pair of games with Redwood Christian, results which should bode well for the Jayhawks. They also split with Bentley, who like Urban should be seeded much higher than its overall record would suggest. The Phoenix are eligible after securing a winning record in league play, and have a win over Berean Christian, plus the win in the second meeting against Head-Royce.
San Domenico has a win over Sonoma Academy, who swept the season series from Technology and Upper Lake, and won two of three against Division IV Roseland Prep. Technology might have played one of the weakest schedules, but has a direct win over Upper Lake. OMI finished first in the BCL-General regular season standings, and beat Hoopa Valley by six points, which could be the blow that knocks Hoopa out of the field. OMI could actually be in line for a home game, regardless of seeding, as a league champ.
Quarry Lane is unbeaten in league play, and 11-3 overall, but has no quality wins that would move them ahead of anyone else in this field.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. University
2. Branson
3. Urban
4. Redwood Christian
5. Cloverdale
6. Bentley
7. Berean Christian
8. Head-Royce
9. St. Bernard’s
10. Clear Lake
11. San Domenico
12. Sonoma Academy
13. Technology
14. Upper Lake
15. Oakland Military Institute
16. Quarry Lane
