We are getting to the point of the Central Coast Section season where just a few key games can have a huge impact on the seedings for the playoffs. In this article, we will take a deeper dive into the CCS Division 4/5 projections and take a closer look at some of these final moving parts.
If you refer to our main projections article, you will note that there are several differences between the seedings in our two main models. In one model, we predict the remaining games of the seasons and respective final CCS point totals; in the other, we look at where teams stand if the season ended today.
To get a better idea of what needs to happen from here on out, it is easiest to look at the overall picture in the CCS Division 4/5 playoffs, starting with the automatic qualifiers.
Here is a breakdown by division (number of automatic bids in parentheses):
BVAL-Santa Teresa (2)
Locks: Independence (8-0, 5-0).
Contenders: Overfelt (7-1, 4-1), Del Mar (6-2, 3-2), Willow Glen (5-3, 3-2), Leigh (4-4, 2-3).
Overfelt can knock Leigh out this week when the teams meet in East San Jose. The Royals then finish the season against undefeated Independence. Del Mar meets Willow Glen Friday in another crucial matchup; the loser will face an uphill climb to the playoffs. Willow Glen finishes the season at Leigh. Considering how competitive this division has been this season, it would not be surprising if there were a few more twists and turns left.
BVAL-West Valley (1)
Locks: none.
Contenders: Andrew Hill (5-3, 5-0), Mt. Pleasant (4-4, 4-1).
Andrew Hill and Mt. Pleasant will likely meet for the division title November 2 at Andrew Hill.
PAL-Ocean (2)
Locks: Burlingame (6-2, 3-0).
Contenders: The King’s Academy (6-2, 3-1), San Mateo (3-5, 2-1), Sequoia (3-5, 2-2).
Burlingame must take care of rival San Mateo in the season finale in order to wrap up a league title. The Panthers are technically not locks for one of the automatic bids, but it would seem unlikely for them to lose their final two games, beginning this week against Sequoia. If Sequoia loses, it would have no shot at the playoffs. The King’s Academy will be heavily favored in its last two games.
PAL-Lake (1)
Locks: Carlmont (6-2, 4-0).
Contenders: none.
Carlmont has already wrapped up the league title and lone automatic bid.
PCAL-Mission (3)
Locks: Carmel (8-0, 5-0), Alisal (5-3, 3-1), Monte Vista Christian (3-5, 3-1).
Contenders: none.
Technically one of the three teams sitting at 1-3 in league – Watsonville, North Salinas and Soledad – could make a run at one of the three automatic bids, but this has been a fairly top-heavy league this year, making that seem highly unlikely. Monte Vista Christian needs only one more win against either North Salinas or Watsonville, while Alisal closes the season with Soledad likely needing a win after its date with undefeated Carmel this week.
PCAL-Cypress (1)
Locks: Monterey (7-1, 4-0).
Contenders: none.
Monterey has already wrapped up the league title and lone automatic bid.
PCAL-Santa Lucia (1)
Locks: Gonzales (8-0, 4-0).
Contenders: Soquel (6-2, 3-1), Stevenson (3-4, 3-1).
Considering Gonzales beat Soquel 54-7 and Soquel beat Stevenson, we feel it is safe to assume that the Spartans will take care of business against the Pirates this week when the two teams meet. Soquel would need a Stevenson upset and to win out to force a potential three-way tie for first.
SCVAL-El Camino (2)
Locks: none.
Contenders: Mountain View (5-4, 4-1), Santa Clara (4-4, 3-1), Saratoga (4-4, 3-1), Monta Vista (5-3, 2-2).
Mountain View threw this entire division into a loop by upsetting Santa Clara last week. Now, it is looking like a three-way tie at the top, with Saratoga – which handed Mountain View its only loss – joining the party.
Monta Vista holds the key to the race as it finishes the season at home against Santa Clara and away to Mountain View.
At-large contenders
It looks like the SCVAL-El Camino and BVAL-Santa Teresa will hold the cards to the final races for at-large bids.
If the season ended today, Mountain View and Santa Clara would own the automatic bids from the SCVAL-EC, but there is a good chance that Saratoga would join those two in a three-way tie. In that case, we believe Santa Clara and Saratoga would win the tiebreaker, leaving Mountain View to try to lock down one of the three at-large bids.
In the BVAL-Santa Teresa Division, Independence and Overfelt would own the automatic bids; however, the Royals still have to play the undefeated Sixers. A loss would drop Overfelt into a tie for second with Del Mar – and potentially Willow Glen. Overfelt would lose the tiebreaker to Del Mar, which is the scenario we have projected.
Willow Glen can make things very interesting with a win at Del Mar this Friday. The Rams will be right on the bubble with just one win in their final two games – we have them as the final team in the field.
The other spots will be contested by Mountain View and Monta Vista. The teams play November 2 with a likely playoff spot on the line. If Monta Vista were to snag a playoff spot, the Matadors would wind up in Division 4, dropping Overfelt to Division 5.
