There is only a week remaining in the regular season, and that means our projections should have some clarity as teams finish jockeying for position in their league standings. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we rank teams accordingly each week, and discuss the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
We started the process five weeks ago by seeding the top eight teams in each division, rather than the full 16. These are the teams that would be in line for a home game in the first round, and we have expanded this list to a full 16, or fewer in those divisions where there do not appear to be 16 teams in line to meet qualification criteria.
OPEN
Projected four teams:
1. De La Salle
2. Liberty
3. Clayton Valley
4. Pittsburg
Rationale: Liberty’s win over Pittsburg gave us the answer we were waiting for, with the Lions ascending to the two spot with an unbeaten record. Liberty and Clayton Valley hold comparable victories over the Pirates, but Liberty not only has the edge over Clayton Valley in terms of overall record, but the Lions also beat Antioch 52-0, the same Panthers’ team which handed Clayton Valley its only loss.
What could change this in the final week? Well, obviously, if Antioch were to beat Pittsburg in the 100th annual Big Little Game, it would knock the Pirates out of the Open Division. In that scenario, that would give Antioch wins over both Clayton Valley and Pittsburg – not to mention California, which could then bump Antioch all the way up to the three seed, and push Clayton Valley down to the four seed. That is a big hypothetical, but in an emotionally-fueled rivalry game, all possibilities should be considered.
DIVISION I
Projected seeds:
1. Monte Vista
2. California
3. Freedom
4. Antioch
5. Amador Valley
6. San Ramon Valley
7. Vintage
8. San Leandro
9. James Logan
10. Dublin/Dougherty Valley
Rationale: Monte Vista has a pretty strong claim to the top spot right now, especially with wins over both California and Granada under its belt, to go with earlier wins over Granite Bay and San Leandro. The next three spots could get interesting, however.
If Freedom finishes ahead of Antioch in the BVAL standings, with a head-to-head win over the Panthers, that would place two of the criteria in favor of the Falcons, and therefore also in favor of a California team which beat Freedom, yet lost to Antioch. In that case, a Cal-Freedom-Antioch order would make sense. But, Antioch also has the highest quality win of the bunch, having beaten Clayton Valley, and did beat California. Using that argument, an Antioch-Cal-Freedom order would make sense. Finally, there also exists the potential for a Freedom-Antioch-Cal order, also considering that Freedom had a wider margin of victory over San Ramon Valley than California did. The first one seems most likely right now, but this could go in multiple directions at two through four.
Amador Valley and San Ramon Valley will be a difficult spot to seed, but we are giving the nod to the Dons right now based on a larger margin of victory over Dougherty Valley and a better overall record. This week’s Amador Valley game against Foothill will give another common opponent, and a decisive Amador Valley victory could be the deciding factor. If Foothill wins that rivalry game, or SRV defeats Monte Vista, then everything changes.
Vintage could move into the top seven as a league champion, especially if the Crushers go unbeaten in league play as it appears they are going to do, while San Leandro should get a top eight seed if the Pirates finish second in the WACC-Foothill, which also appears likely after the Pirates beat Encinal and all losses are to higher-ranked teams.
James Logan has a win over Dougherty Valley, but could end up behind Dublin if the Gaels win by a large margin over Dougherty. The Dublin-Dougherty Valley regular season finale is essentially be a playoff game for both teams, with only one of them able to become eligible.
The other remaining team with a realistic shot of getting eligible is Deer Valley, but the Wolverines need to upset Freedom this week in order to do so. If that would happen, Deer Valley could all of a sudden make an argument for a top eight seed, since San Leandro lost to Freedom.
DIVISION II
Projected seeds:
1. Bishop O’Dowd
2. Rancho Cotate
3. Granada
4. Campolindo
5. Marin Catholic
6. Ukiah
7. Benicia
8. American Canyon
9. Montgomery
10. Santa Rosa
11. Windsor
12. Alhambra
13. Livermore
14. Hayward
15. Redwood
16. Casa Grande
Rationale: O’Dowd’s win over Monte Vista looks even better now after the Mustangs beat California and Granada, and the losses to St. Mary’s-Stockton and De La Salle are both to Division I programs, while the Dragons also have four victories over Division I programs. However, this is far from an open and shut case, and Rancho Cotate could easily wind up with the top seed over the Dragons.
Consider the two cases – O’Dowd has wins over Monte Vista, San Leandro, and will likely add another quality win over Encinal. The win over Monte Vista is the most impressive in this field. Rancho, however, has wins over Campolindo, Pleasant Valley, El Cerrito, Sacramento, Vanden and potentially Ukiah. The Cougars also have a lone loss to Cardinal Newman. Another difference is that O’Dowd will be a league champion, but losing to Newman should not damage Rancho’s argument.
Rancho’s win over Campolindo, and Campo’s win over Marin Catholic, draw some clear lines in this portion of the field, but where Granada fits is a bigger mystery. Granada has big wins over Amador Valley and Manteca, and is likely going to be an outright league champion, but Campolindo should not get penalized for losing to Clayton Valley. Campo also has big wins over Marin Catholic, El Cerrito, St. Ignatius, Acalanes and potentially Miramonte, while both of Granada’s losses are to elite Division I programs. Both programs are certainly deserving of top four seeds, and will be in those spots.
Ukiah and Benicia both played Maria Carrillo, with Ukiah putting up a more convincing victory. Of course, Ukiah would still move up with an upset win over Rancho Cotate.
American Canyon comes in next, ahead of the NBL grouping, based on its win over Petaluma, who beat Montgomery, and the fact that the Wolves are on track for a second place finish in the VVAL, assuming they beat Justin-Siena. The group of NBL teams could get tricky, since Montgomery has a loss to Windsor, but now has wins over both Santa Rosa and Maria Carrillo and the best overall record of the group, not to mention being an outright division champion. Santa Rosa does have losses to Ukiah, Montgomery, and Carrillo, but also a big win over Windsor, and the Panthers have also clinched eligibility.
Windsor has a win over Montgomery, but also the loss to Santa Rosa, and the Jaguars still need to beat Carrillo to become eligible. Alhambra clinched eligibility with a win over Northgate, and the Bulldogs beat Livermore. Livermore also clinched eligibility, and has added quality wins over Dublin and Dougherty Valley in the process, one of which will be a playoff team in Division I.
Redwood has wins over Terra Linda and Tamalpais, while Hayward has close losses to Pinole Valley and Alameda, plus a big win over Tennyson, which is slightly better than any win on Redwood’s slate. Casa Grande clinched eligibility, and its quality of wins outweighs anything Bethel can offer right now. Concord could also make an argument, as the Minutemen should clinch eligibility with a win over Mt. Diablo.
Here is the final wild card: Maria Carrillo has big wins over Santa Rosa and Redwood, but needs to beat Windsor in the regular season finale to become eligible, and would move ahead of the Jaguars if that happens. If they beat Windsor, they would go ahead of the Jaguars; lose that game, and they are on the outside looking in. Right now, we are keeping them out of the projected seeds.
DIVISION III
Projected seeds:
1. Cardinal Newman
2. Eureka
3. Las Lomas
4. El Cerrito
5. Miramonte
6. Pinole Valley
7. De Anza
8. Encinal
9. Petaluma
10. Tennyson
11. Alameda
12. Terra Linda
13. Tamalpais
14. Kennedy-Fremont
15. Newark Memorial
16. Piner
Rationale: Cardinal Newman has a virtual stranglehold on the top seed here, barring a major upset. Eureka has a slightly better strength of schedule than Las Lomas, and if the Loggers win the HDN-Big 4 outright, it would be more impressive than Las Lomas winning the DAL-Valley. Both teams are on track for unbeaten regular season records, with Las Lomas having already completed its regular season.
El Cerrito should be the outright TCAL-Rock champions, but Miramonte just put up an impressive victory over Acalanes, with a larger margin of victory over the Dons than what El Cerrito posted. However, the Gauchos will be league champs, and their win over De Anza was more convincing than Miramonte’s win over the Dons, as both common opponents must be factored. Pinole Valley should enter the playoffs undefeated, with wins over Benicia, De Anza, Hayward and Alhambra, but the Spartans’ win over De Anza was closer than either El Cerrito’s or Miramonte’s, and they cannot match the depth of quality victories which those teams possess.
De Anza’s win over Encinal, and competitive losses to both Pinole Valley and Miramonte should help the Dons get a top seven seed, while Encinal has been competitive in the WACC-Foothill, with a win over Alameda and a close loss to Division I San Leandro.
Tennyson’s loss to Hayward could really hurt the Lancers, especially because it leaves them not only in a three-way for first place in their league, but also with Alameda as their only real quality victory. Meanwhile, Petaluma can tout wins over Montgomery and Terra Linda, while all three Trojans’ losses are also to playoff-bound teams.
Terra Linda’s win over Tamalpais has the Trojans above the Hawks.
Kennedy, Newark Memorial and Piner are all eligible, but won’t have much of a case to move any higher.
One extra item of note – based on the preseason draw, Alameda is in line to earn the champion designation from the WACC-Shoreline if the Hornets, Tennyson and Hayward all remain tied this week. However, this will not affect seeding, and will only look affect a home game in the first round if Alameda plays a non-league champion. In this scenario, matched up with Pinole Valley would still result in a home game for Pinole, since the Spartans would also be a league champion.
DIVISION IV
Projected seeds:
1. Moreau Catholic
2. Kennedy-Richmond
3. Del Norte
4. St. Bernard’s
5. Piedmont
6. San Marin
7. Fortuna
8. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
9. Saint Mary’s
10. Justin-Siena
11. Lower Lake
12. El Molino
13. Albany
14. Drake
Rationale: Moreau should finish the regular season unbeaten, with wins over both San Marin and St. Pat’s. If Kennedy finishes 9-1, with the only loss to El Cerrito and wins over St. Pat’s and Saint Mary’s, then the Eagles will have a strong case for the two seed.
Del Norte’s win over Fortuna in their second meeting likely moves the Warriors ahead of the Huskies, especially if they can finish 8-2 this season. That, however, depends on this week’s game with St. Bernard’s, who also just beat Fortuna in overtime. Right now, we list Del Norte over St. Bernard’s due to recent scores versus Fortuna, but the reality is that the three seed will be decided on the field this week.
Fortuna has a terrific strength of schedule, and wins over both Del Norte and James Logan, but the Huskies will be an underdog this week against Eureka and could fall to 5-5 with another loss. Meanwhile, Piedmont’s non-league wins over Menlo, Salesian and Justin-Siena all help the Highlanders, and competitive losses to San Leandro and Lincoln don’t hurt much, either.
San Marin helped itself big-time with a win over Redwood, and sports just a seven-point loss to Moreau. The loss to Terra Linda is really the only thing preventing the Mustangs from moving ahead of Piedmont and potentially higher, but a win this week would leave them at 7-3 and with a share of a league title, though not for NCS purposes. That could be enough to move them ahead of Fortuna, who could become a very dangerous seven seed.
St. Pat’s beat Saint Mary’s head to head, so that pecking order is settled. It is highly unlikely that Sonoma Valley will become eligible, needing to beat Vintage in the regular season finale, and that works out well for Justin-Siena, who has a loss to the Dragons. It also hurts El Molino, who had beaten Sonoma Valley but also lost to Lower Lake, and likely falls behind the Trojans without that win in the mix.
DIVISION V
Projected seeds:
1. Salesian
2. Stellar Prep
3. Kelseyville
4. Cloverdale
5. Fort Bragg
6. Middletown
7. Berean Christian
8. St. Helena
9. Arcata
10. Hoopa Valley
11. Ferndale
12. St. Vincent de Paul
13. California School for the Deaf
Rationale: It would not be surprising if the committee breathed a sigh of relief when Salesian routed St. Pat’s to become playoff eligible, as the Pride make for a logical top seed with wins over St. Pat’s, Riordan and Saint Mary’s. Overall record would place Kelseyville as the two seed, but the Knights have a head-to-head loss against Stellar Prep, which has played a solid independent schedule, including close losses to Deer Valley and Fortuna. Kelseyville, meanwhile, handed Middletown a decisive loss, and if the Knights win the NCL, they will be no lower than the three seed, which could potentially mean a post-season rematch with the Thunder.
Fort Bragg’s win over Middletown, and previous win over St. Helena, has the Timberwolves in line for a top-five seed, with the only wild card there being this week’s game between Cloverdale and Middletown. Middletown should still be a top six seed, especially with the win over Berean Christian, who clinched playoff eligibility.
St. Helena’s win over Arcata has them above the Tigers and Hoopa, and they could make an argument for the seven seed based on the win over Cloverdale.
Arcata has two wins over Hoopa, but also a loss to Ferndale. Since Hoopa swept Ferndale, the Warriors must go ahead of Ferndale, but below Arcata for now. Arcata and Ferndale also play one more time, and another Ferndale win could potentially shake all this up again. Ferndale’s win over Arcata is better than any wins on file for the two teams listed below.
St. Vincent has clinched eligibility after its win over CSD, and will be seeded ahead of the Eagles.
