The Central Coast Section Open Division playoff picture may have taken a few twists and turns after a wild week 9, but it is actually coming into focus heading into the final weekend of the season.
Please refer to for our latest projections. In one model, we predict the remaining games of the seasons and respective final CCS point totals; in the other, we look at where teams stand if the season ended today.
Aragon’s big win over Menlo means that the automatic bids in the PAL-Bay are now set with the Dons joining Menlo-Atherton, Sacred Heart Prep and Terra Nova. Menlo has no path to an automatic bid even with an upset win over rival Sacred Heart Prep to close out the regular season.
Automatic bids are also set in the BVAL-Mount Hamilton (Oak Grove, Live Oak, Leland, Piedmont Hills), PCAL-Gabilan (a wild four-way tie among Palma, Aptos, Salinas and San Benito) and the SCVAL-De Anza (Wilcox, Palo Alto, Milpitas, Los Gatos), leaving the WCAL matchup between Bellarmine and St. Ignatius as perhaps the biggest game of the week.
Not only will the SI-Bell game potentially determine the final at-large team in the CCS Open field, it will likely have a direct impact on the fate of Wilcox’s playoff future.
The Chargers are locks to be a No. 1 seed – the only question is whether that will be in Division 1 or the stronger Division 2.
Sacred Heart Cathedral and Archbishop Mitty will battle it out for the fourth and final automatic bid from the WCAL, but both of those teams are playoff locks no matter what happens. The Bellarmine-SI game is effectively an elimination game.
If Bellarmine wins, Wilcox would wind up in Division 2; a St. Ignatius win would bump the Chargers to Division 1. Christopher, Archbishop Mitty and Pioneer are expected to claim the other three at-large spots in some order, with Cupertino, Bellarmine (if it loses), Menlo and Seaside hoping for some slipups above them.
The loser of the SHC-Mitty game and Pioneer are locks for two of the four at-large bids. Christopher will clinch a spot with a win over Gilroy, which has yet to win a game in the PCAL-Gabilan. The winner of the Bell-SI game will have at least 17.5 points, meaning that Cupertino would need to pull off the upset of the season against Wilcox in order to get in, assuming Christopher takes care of business. After that, Menlo would need to knock off Sacred Heart Prep to force its way into the picture.
To get a better idea of what needs to happen from here on out, it is easiest to look at the overall picture in the CCS Open playoffs, starting with the automatic qualifiers.
Five “A” divisions provide four automatic qualifiers each to the Open Division playoffs. Here is a breakdown of each:
BVAL – Mount Hamilton
Locks: Oak Grove (6-3, 5-1 BVAL), Piedmont Hills (4-5, 4-2), Live Oak (7-2, 4-2), Leland (5-4, 4-2).
Contenders: none
Pioneer is in good shape for an at-large bid but the four automatic bids are all settled.
PAL – Bay
Locks: Menlo-Atherton (7-2, 5-0), Sacred Heart Prep (8-1, 3-1), Terra Nova (7-2, 2-2), Aragon (2-7, 2-3).
Contenders: none
Aragon claimed the final automatic bid with its win over Menlo last week, leaving the Knights with a very remote chance at picking up an at-large spot.
PCAL-Gabilan
Locks: Palma (8-1, 5-1), Aptos (8-1, 5-1), San Benito (6-3, 5-1), Salinas (6-3, 5-1).
Contenders: none.
The top four took quite a turn last week with Palma and San Benito handing Aptos and Salinas their first league losses, respectively, but the automatic bids are completely decided in the PCAL-Gabilan.
SCVAL-De Anza
Locks: Wilcox (9-0, 5-0), Palo Alto (8-1, 4-1), Milpitas (5-4, 3-2), Los Gatos (6-4, 3-3).
Milpitas’ win over Cupertino locked up the four automatic bids in the SCVAL-DA.
WCAL
Locks: St. Francis (8-1, 6-0), Valley Christian (7-2, 5-1), Serra (6-3, 5-1).
Contenders: Sacred Heart Cathedral (5-4, 3-3), Archbishop Mitty (4-5, 2-4).
The winner of the SHC-Mitty game should get the fourth automatic bid. There is a possibility of a three-way tie if Mitty beats SHC and SI defeats Bellarmine. In that scenario, we believe Mitty would emerge with the tiebreaker.
At-large contenders
Here are the teams in contention for an at-large bid and their point totals heading into the final game of the season:
SHC/Mitty loser (19 if Mitty, 20.75 if SHC)
Christopher (18, at Gilroy)
Pioneer (18, at Santa Teresa)
SI-Bell winner (17.5 if SI, 18.5 if Bell)
Cupertino (16.5, at Wilcox)
Menlo (16.33, at Sacred Heart Prep)
As mentioned earlier, the loser of the Sacred Heart Cathedral-Mitty game is a lock for one of the at-large bids. Even with losses, Christopher and Pioneer would get in provided Cupertino or Menlo don’t pull off massive upsets. And Christopher and Pioneer would clinch a spot with a win.
