With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, the playoff picture is getting pretty clear. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we will rank teams accordingly each week, and discuss the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
We started the process by seeding all eight teams in each division, but with limited analysis, which continues to evolve each week. This year features more divisions, but half as many teams getting into each bracket. We will try to note match-ups which will have the largest impacts on our projections, especially in these final weeks. Also, we do this under the assumption that every eligible team will apply for the post-season, and only change that assumption in the final couple weeks if a coach makes it clear that their program does not intend on applying.
DIVISION 1
Projected seeds:
1. De La Salle
2. Pittsburg
3. Liberty
4. Monte Vista
5. California
6. James Logan
7. San Ramon Valley
8. Amador Valley
Rationale: Pittsburg’s win over Liberty moves the Pirates into the two slot, while Liberty’s earlier win over Monte Vista should secure the Lions nothing lower than the three seed. The same goes with Monte Vista’s one-point win over California last week, and the nature of that game should keep Cal one spot below the Mustangs, especially considering their earlier win over Clayton Valley.
James Logan has a comparable common opponent win with San Ramon Valley, as they both earned one-sided wins over Heritage, but if the Colts beat Moreau Catholic this week, then they will be a league champion, and they also have a win over a San Leandro team which beat Foothill, which of course beat San Ramon Valley.
Amador Valley is unbeaten in the EBAL-Valley right now, and that league title will be decided when the Dons play Livermore next week to finish the regular season. But this week’s game with Foothill could have impact on the seeding, since San Ramon Valley lost to Foothill. Right now, however, we have SRV ahead of Amador Valley, since the Wolves beat a Heritage team which beat Amador Valley.
The only other team with an outside shot at the field would be Freedom, even though the Falcons just picked up their first win this season. If Amador Valley was to drop its final two games, and Freedom was to beat both Antioch and Deer Valley to finish the regular season and get eligible, then the Falcons and Amador Valley would both have a win over Antioch, but Freedom would have a win over Heritage, while the Dons would have a loss in that match-up.
A couple interesting notes as they would pertain to seeding in this scenario: California at Monte Vista would be a phenomenal quarterfinal rematch after the one-point thriller last week, while the possibility of a Liberty at Pittsburg semifinal game after last week’s overtime game would draw fans from all nearby areas. Also, if Logan and Liberty finish in those spots, with Logan winning the MVAL, then the Colts would host Liberty in the quarterfinals by virtue of being a league champion.
DIVISION 2
Projected seeds:
1. Clayton Valley
2. San Leandro
3. Vintage
4. Foothill
5. Campolindo
6. Livermore
7. Redwood
8. Napa
Rationale: Well, our temporary drop of Clayton Valley in last week’s projections did not age well, as the Ugly Eagles promptly went out and routed Foothill, 41-0, to jump right back on top in our projections, although the finish to the year is brutal and could impact these projections.
Clayton Valley’s win over Foothill is better than that of San Leandro’s, which went to overtime with the Falcons. The difficult part for Clayton Valley, which has losses to Liberty, San Ramon Valley and California, will be a regular season finish which includes both Monte Vista and De La Salle. A win over the Mustangs will cement the top seed, and even a close game might do the trick.
San Leandro and Vintage could both finish the season with a strong claim to the two seed, or maybe even the top seed depending on how Clayton Valley does in the final two weeks. If the Pirates run the table, however, then that would mean finishing with wins over Bishop O’Dowd, Encinal, Foothill and Freedom. Vintage’s resume is nearly as impressive, however, with wins over Acalanes, American Canyon, El Cerrito and potentially Napa. The win over Acalanes gained strength when the Dons beat Campolindo, and the win over El Cerrito is looking better as the Gauchos contend for a TCAL-Rock title.
Foothill’s win over San Ramon Valley has the Falcons in slightly better position than Campolindo right now, but if the Falcons lose to Amador Valley, then they automatically fall behind Campolindo, based on the Cougars’ win over the Dons. Livermore can strengthen its case by winning out, and a win over Amador Valley in the regular season finale could position them in the conversation for a top five seed.
After a competitive loss to Marin Catholic, Redwood appears safely locked into a top seven slot, and the only reason they are not higher could be the stinker of a loss to Berkeley in the season opener, which sits worse than Livermore’s loss to Gregori. Also, Livermore’s victory over Windsor is better than the Giants’ top win, which is currently over Tamalpais.
Napa and Dublin are going to be an interesting debate for the final spot. Dublin should finish 6-4 overall, with a win over Dougherty Valley to finish the regular season this week, while Napa could end up 7-3 overall if the Grizzlies do not upset Vintage. Napa’s win over Middletown will likely give it a win over a league champion, albeit a lower division league. The Grizzlies’ two losses, however, are each by one score to quality opponents, and their league record will be superior to Dublin’s, unless they falter this week against Petaluma. Regardless, this is not going to be an easy decision.
Looking at the possible match-ups, a Foothill versus Campolindo game in the quarterfinals would put two of the section’s most consistent programs on display against one another.
DIVISION 3
Projected seeds:
1. Las Lomas
2. Rancho Cotate
3. Benicia
4. Hayward
5. American Canyon
6. Windsor
7. El Cerrito
8. Bishop O’Dowd
Rationale: Surprisingly, nothing has changed in our projections here in this division, as all eight teams performed as expected last week.
Unbeaten right now, Las Lomas has the inside track to the top seed, as long as the Knights finish no lower than second in the DAL-Foothill, and a previous win over Acalanes has them in great position, considering that Acalanes just beat Campolindo.
Rancho Cotate and Benicia should be an interesting debate for the two and three seeds, but what we see in the Cougars’ favor right now are the better quality wins. Rancho has wins over Pleasant Valley-Chico and Windsor, plus the win over El Cerrito got better when the Gauchos beat Kennedy-Richmond and they have a 28-point win over a Vanden team that lost to Las Lomas by only one point. Benicia’s lone loss is by three points to an outstanding Sutter squad, and the Panthers should be the DAL-Valley champions, but playing in a lower-tier league is hurting the strength of schedule and Benicia’s best win right now is either Maria Carrillo or College Park.
American Canyon and Hayward find themselves in similar situations right now. Both could finish the year as one-loss teams, except that American Canyon’s loss to Vintage means that Hayward would be a league champion while the Wolves would not. That being the case, if one of them is the four seed and the other is the five seed, it will make no difference. Hayward would be in line for a home game regardless in that scenario, as the only league champion.
Windsor is the team looking to move up, but Eureka’s loss to Fortuna in the first game of HDN-Big 4 play did not help their cause right now. All three losses are to quality opponents, but that is the same case for everyone on this list ahead of the Jaguars. For now, assuming Windsor beats Ukiah and Maria Carrillo, the six seed looks likely as a third-place team in the NBL-Oak.
El Cerrito’s win over Kennedy-Richmond, which puts the Gauchos in the driver’s seat for the TCAL-Rock title along with Salesian, has the Gauchos slightly ahead of O’Dowd right now. If El Cerrito wins that league, it might not be enough to move any higher than the six seed, but the Gauchos might prefer the seven seed anyway, since that could mean a home game if they are matched up with a non-league champion. O’Dowd still appears on track to get in, assuming it can beat Castro Valley, but the Dragons won’t be any higher than an eight seed unless they also beat Encinal in the regular season finale.
While sorting out the eight teams listed above is pretty tricky due to lack of common opponents, there does seem to be a clear line between those eight and any other teams looking to snag a playoff spot. Bethel’s loss to Pinole Valley really damaged any case the Jaguars might have had, and they absolutely now have to beat De Anza this week to have a shot. Casa Grande will be eligible if it splits its final two games, but to really have a shot at getting in, needs to win both since that would mean a win over American Canyon.
Ukiah has a shot if it beats Windsor this week or Rancho Cotate in the regular season finale, while Northgate likely needs to upset Benicia this week to have a shot. Washington will be eligible, but with no quality victories to make the field, and the same goes for Santa Rosa. Novato could also become eligible with a win over Terra Linda this week, but the Hornets also lack a quality victory.
DIVISION 4
Projected seeds:
1. Cardinal Newman
2. Marin Catholic
3. Piner
4. Acalanes
5. Tamalpais
6. Newark Memorial
7. Kennedy-Fremont
8. Tennyson
Rationale: The top two seeds are pretty much a slam dunk at this point, though they could go in either order. Piner has blasted every opponent thus far, but lack of a true quality win will leave the Prospectors relegated to no better than the three seed. However, do not be surprised if Acalanes snags the three seed, after the Dons picked up a huge win over Campolindo.
After Tamalpais, simply filling out this field becomes a matter of who can get eligible, and the resulting first-round games will probably not be what the section had in mind when they reduced the fields to eight teams. Maria Carrillo would be a logical team for the six seed, but the Pumas will only be eligible if they beat either Cardinal Newman or Windsor in these final two weeks.
Newark Memorial has wins over Tennyson and Kennedy-Fremont, which means the Cougars have secured eligibility, though the recent loss to Washington all but guarantees that Newark will be sub-.500 overall. Kennedy’s win over American gives the Titans a common opponent edge against a Tennyson team that is eligible based on its league record.
The final spot could come down to Tennyson, Vallejo or Concord. Concord only needs to beat Mt. Diablo to be eligible, but probably has the weakest overall argument with a loss to Arroyo in there, unless the Minutemen upset Benicia or Alhambra. Vallejo is likely to finish .500 in league play, but Tennyson could likely finish 4-2 in league play and with a better record overall.
DIVISION 5
Projected seeds:
1. Encinal
2. Del Norte
3. De Anza
4. Moreau Catholic
5. San Marin
6. Miramonte
7. Fortuna
8. Alhambra
Rationale: Six of Encinal’s seven wins are by shutout, and its one loss was a competitive showing against McClymonds, so for now we have the Jets in the top spot, but that could easily change as they face the top two opponents on their schedule in the last two weeks.
The top two or three seeds are going to be pretty up for grabs in this division. Del Norte could certainly go 9-1 in the regular season, but if Encinal beats either O’Dowd or San Leandro in league play, the Jets will have a strong argument for the top seed even at 8-2 overall. The biggest knock against De Anza will be the league that the Dons play in, but with Miramonte routing Alhambra a couple weeks ago to get in this field, the Dons now have a higher level of quality non-league win against a team in the field.
That being said, Del Norte in the two spot also will not be a surprise if the Warriors run the table in the HDN-Big 4, and they took a step towards that by beating St. Bernard’s last week. In fact, if Moreau beats James Logan for the MVAL title this week, and Del Norte runs the table, then the Warriors should probably be the one seed, unless Encinal also wins its final two games.
Moreau Catholic’s win over San Marin should keep the Mariners in front of the Mustangs, just like their loss to Del Norte solidifies their place below the Warriors. Moreau can still move higher if it beats Logan and Encinal falls to San Leandro this week. Eureka’s loss to Fortuna this past week is a huge blow for the Loggers, who now have to beat Del Norte in order to become eligible, and a massive boost for Fortuna, which can now become playoff eligible with a win over Del Norte or St. Bernard’s. Miramonte is also a big beneficiary of the Fortuna victory, since the Matadors own a win against Fortuna and therefore now have a common opponent edge versus Eureka.
Piedmont could become eligible with wins over Berkeley and Castro Valley in the final two weeks of the season, but Alhambra will become eligible with a win over Concord, and the Bulldogs have wins over College Park, Northgate and Pinole Valley, all of which stack up pretty nicely compared to Piedmont’s top victories.
If Fortuna does not get eligible, then Alhambra and Piedmont could both end up in the field, with an eligible San Rafael team likely on the outside looking in.
If this scenario does play out, Moreau Catholic and San Marin could meet for the fourth time in two seasons, while Fortuna and Del Norte could meet for the third time this year and fifth time in two seasons. De Anza and Miramonte also played earlier this season.
DIVISION 6
Projected seeds:
1. St. Bernard’s
2. Middletown
3. Kennedy-Richmond
4. Justin-Siena
5. Lower Lake
6. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
7. Pinole Valley
8. Arcata
Rationale: Simply put, there is a divide between the top three here right now and the rest of the field, when it comes to seeding.
For St. Bernard’s, both of its losses are to quality opponents, and its win over Ferndale will pay dividends as the Wildcats should be league champions. If the Crusaders beat Eureka and Fortuna, they are the likely top seed here. Meanwhile, Middletown has dispatched all the top teams in its league and appears headed for an outright league title, with two quality non-league losses to Napa and Moreau Catholic.
The wild card here remains Kennedy, which was hurt by its loss to an El Cerrito team that struggled early in the season. However, if the Eagles can beat Salesian and also get some help from the Pride when they face El Cerrito this week, then they still have a shot at the top seed. Either way, a top three seed is all but assured, assuming they beat St. Pat’s this week.
Justin-Siena’s win over Riordan is better than anything else offered by the rest of this field. Lower Lake boosted its stock considerably with the win over Willits, which had previously beaten St. Helena, who has a convincing win over St. Pat’s. St. Pat’s, meanwhile, will be eligible even if it loses its next two games, and has a one-sided win over Alhambra, who beat Pinole Valley. The Bruins also have a stronger schedule than the two teams listed below. Pinole Valley’s win over Bethel will be huge for the Spartans if they can run the table.
The final spot could come down to Arcata and Ygnacio Valley. Arcata’s win over Willits is the best on the board among those teams right now, especially after Willits beat St. Helena, but it lost a little bit of luster when the Wolverines lost to Lower Lake. The Tigers, however, will need to pick up a win over Hoopa Valley in the regular season finale to solidify their case, assuming they also beat McKinleyville this week.
As for Ygnacio Valley, the Warriors are likely to finish 7-3, including a forfeit win early in the year. But a win over Berean Christian this week won’t add much to the playoff resume, so getting into the field could be a challenge. YV could still have a strong shot at the eight seed, however, if Arcata slips up during the remainder of league play. Also, if Pinole drops one more game, Ygnacio and Arcata could both get in.
If this scenario does play out, Kennedy and St. Pat’s could play each other twice in a three-week span.
DIVISION 7
Projected seeds:
1. Salesian
2. Ferndale
3. Willits
4. St. Helena
5. St. Vincent de Paul
6. Clear Lake
7. El Molino
8. Hoopa Valley
Rationale: Salesian is the clear front-runner for the top seed, especially with a win over Moreau Catholic. Ferndale appears in line for the two seed, especially after Willits’ loss to Lower Lake two weeks ago, and considering that the Wildcats have a win over Fortuna. If they sweep Little 4 play, there is little to suggest they would not get the two seed, except a bad early loss to Clear Lake.
El Molino beat Healdsburg last week to secure eligibility, and could run the table with Montgomery and Harker also remaining. Clear Lake became eligible last week with its win over Cloverdale, and the Cardinals are likely in line to move ahead of El Molino based on that early win over Ferndale. Hoopa Valley beat McKinleyville last week to secure eligibility.
