In our fifth edition of the North Coast Section playoff predictions, we continue the weekly process of identifying our projected seeds for the post-season, in every division. Following section seeding criteria, we will rank teams accordingly each week, and discuss the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
We started the process by seeding the top eight teams in each division, expanded to 12 teams last week, and go to a full 16 where applicable last week. We also added the list of which teams have already met post-season criteria, how many games others need to win, and which teams are mathematically eliminated in each division.
One slight change is taking place in this edition of the projections. Based on the number of teams that are now eligible, and how quickly the end of the regular season is approaching, we are only including teams in the projected seeds who have either already become eligible, or are ranked above the team(s) they need to beat. The remaining teams will be listed in the above categories, but not listed as a projected seed until they meet the criteria. We are also assuming that each eligible team will apply for selection, unless we say otherwise in the comments.
DIVISION I
Projected Seeds:
1. De La Salle (8-1)
2. Foothill (9-0)
3. Pittsburg (8-1)
4. Antioch (9-0)
5. Monte Vista (6-3)
6. Freedom (5-4)
7. Amador Valley (7-2)
8. California (6-3)
9. James Logan (6-3)
10. San Leandro (5-4)
11. Dublin (7-2)
12. Dougherty Valley (6-4)
Comments: Monte Vista’s loss to California last week provides some shake-up, and basically eliminates the Mustangs’ win over Pittsburg from the head-to-head equation, since the Pirates beat Cal. The 97th annual Big Little Game between Pittsburg and Antioch this week should decide the third seed, but it is very feasible that the losing team could still get a top-four seed, especially if the game is close.
Logan’s best win is by six points over San Leandro, so the Colts are bumped down to the nine seed in order to reflect Cal’s big win last week. Freedom has the head-to-head win over Amador Valley, who has the win over California. An Amador Valley win over Foothill this week would provide additional movement for the Dons, however, as it would erase that loss to Freedom.
San Leandro can win a league title if it beats Tennyson this week, and that would put the Pirates in a position to host in the first round, regardless of their seed. Dublin is looking for a big win against Miramonte this week, while Dougherty Valley seems pretty locked into that spot. The only thing that could affect the lower part of these rankings would seemingly be a Liberty victory over Freedom this week, which would also cause the Falcons to tumble out of the top eight, or a San Ramon Valley win over Monte Vista, which could have a similar effect.
College Park is still alive, but needs to beat Clayton Valley this week. Mission San Jose is now technically eligible after receiving the forfeit win over Irvington, but we would be surprised if they apply.
Eligible: De La Salle, Foothill, Monte Vista, Pittsburg, Antioch, Logan, Amador Valley, California, San Leandro, Dublin, Dougherty Valley, Freedom, Mission San Jose
Win one: Liberty, College Park, San Ramon Valley
Mathematically eliminated: Castro Valley, Santa Rosa, Deer Valley, Heritage, Berkeley, Irvington
DIVISION II
Projected Seeds:
1. Clayton Valley Charter (8-1)
2. Miramonte (8-1)
3. Tennyson (8-1)
4. American (7-2)
5. Concord (5-4)
6. Alameda (6-3)
7. Pinole Valley (5-4)
8. Windsor (6-3)
9. Maria Carrillo (5-4)
10. Granada (3-6)
11. Hayward (5-4)
12. Casa Grande (3-6)
13. Northgate (5-4)
14. Redwood (5-4)
15. Washington (5-4)
16. Livermore (3-6)
Comments: Barring a monumental upset at the hands of College Park, Clayton Valley is a lock for the top seed. Miramonte and Tennyson are both alive for the second seed after the Matadors’ blowout loss to Campolindo. Miramonte needs to beat Dublin this week, while Tennyson could potentially grab the second seed if it can beat San Leandro for a league title.
American should finish with a win over Newark Memorial, and the wins over Moreau Catholic and Alameda make the Eagles a solid four seed. Concord’s big win over Northgate makes them likely to be a top five seed, provided they can take care of business against Ygnacio Valley this week. The only thing that can change that would be an Alameda win over Piedmont this week, which would result in a division title for the Hornets.
Pinole Valley suffered a last-second loss to El Cerrito, so the Spartans fall towards the lower part of the top eight, but they should rebound with a win over SPSV this week, and have solid wins over Hayward, Salesian, and American Canyon. Windsor’s win over Maria Carrillo propels the Jaguars back into position to host in the first round, even if they fall to Cardinal Newman this week. The argument between Windsor and Pinole Valley for the seven and eight seeds will be interesting. The difference right now could be the common opponent score against Miramonte, which favors Pinole.
Maria Carrillo drops out of the top eight after the loss to Windsor, but still has wins over Rancho Cotate and Casa Grande, so another shot at the Jags in the first round could be in the near future. Granada’s strength of schedule makes it tough to gauge the Matadors, but the losses to Deer Valley and San Ramon Valley could be damaging if neither team qualifies for the post-season. A win over Livermore in the season finale would certainly help.
Hayward should finish with a win over Arroyo, and can move up if Granada loses. The same applies for Casa Grande, which should beat Montgomery this week. Northgate stays a spot ahead of Redwood based on its head-to-head win over the Giants, who beat Drake to become eligible. Washington has the win over American, but not much else on the resume, and finish the season with Logan.
Livermore is currently in the final spot, but could be in a precarious position. Mt. Eden is likely to beat San Lorenzo in the season finale, and its win over Encinal is better than any victory for the Cowboys. We are leaving Livermore in the final spot for now, but if they lose this week, and the Monarchs win, we have a feeling the Cowboys will be left on the outside looking in.
Eligible: Clayton Valley, Miramonte, Tennyson, American, Concord, Maria Carrillo, Pinole Valley, Granada, Alameda, Hayward, Casa Grande, Windsor, Northgate, Washington, Livermore, Redwood
Win one: Mt. Eden, Newark Memorial
Mathematically eliminated: Richmond, Ukiah, Arroyo, Montgomery
DIVISION III
Projected Seeds:
1. Campolindo (8-1)
2. Analy (9-0)
3. Rancho Cotate (6-3)
4. Alhambra (5-4)
5. Bishop O’Dowd (4-5)
6. Petaluma (7-2)
7. El Cerrito (4-5)
8. Acalanes (3-6)
9. DeAnza (6-3)
10. Kennedy-Fremont (3-6)
11. Novato (3-6)
12. Piner (5-4)
13. Eureka (3-6)
14. Terra Linda (4-6)
15. Tamalpais (3-6)
16. Albany (4-5)
Comments: Campolindo all but cemented its status as the top seed with a rout over Miramonte last week, while Analy can secure a top two seed by beating Petaluma in the SCL title game this week.
Rancho Cotate should pick up its seventh win against Santa Rosa, while Alhambra can look strong as a top four seed with a win over Las Lomas. Bishop O’Dowd’s overtime win against Encinal keeps the Dragons in line for a top five seed if they can finish with a win over Castro Valley, especially based on strength of schedule.
Petaluma won’t be penalized if it loses to Analy, but could potentially drop a spot if it doesn’t keep the game competitive. El Cerrito is on the rise after wins over Salesian and Pinole Valley, and is favored over Hercules this week.
Acalanes became eligible with its win over Las Lomas, while Kennedy picked up a big win against Division I Irvington. Acalanes’ win over Alhambra could keep it in the top eight in this division, though a competitive game this week with Campolindo this week would help.
Novato needs to beat San Rafael this week, but has a win over Terra Linda. Piner played better in its loss against Petaluma than did Terra Linda, and Eureka gets major bump this week after its win over Del Norte. The Loggers should finish with four wins after playing Arcata this week.
Tamalpais goes ahead of Albany, largely due to its win over Novato, while Albany has a head-to-head win over Ygnacio Valley, who will likely be left out of the field despite meeting eligibility requirements.
Eligible: Campolindo, Analy, Rancho Cotate, Alhambra, Bishop O’Dowd, Petaluma, DeAnza, Terra Linda, Albany, Ygnacio Valley, Acalanes, El Cerrito, Piner, Eureka, Kennedy-Fremont, Tamalpais
Win one: Novato, Sonoma Valley
Mathematically eliminated: Mt. Diablo, San Lorenzo, Las Lomas, San Rafael
DIVISION IV
Projected Seeds:
1. Marin Catholic (8-1)
2. Cardinal Newman (7-2)
3. Fortuna (9-0)
4. Moreau Catholic (8-1)
5. Piedmont (7-2)
6. Justin-Siena (7-2)
7. Saint Mary’s (6-3)
8. Fort Bragg (9-0)
9. San Marin (7-2)
10. St. Helena (8-1)
11. Encinal (4-5)
12. Hercules (6-3)
13. Del Norte (4-5)
14. Harker (7-2)
15. Lower Lake (4-5)
16. Healdsburg (3-7)
Comments: Marin Catholic and Cardinal Newman can both make strong arguments for the top seed, but we are sticking with the one-loss Wildcats, especially now that Menlo-Atherton seems highly likely to secure an undefeated run through the Peninsula-Bay division. The win over Justin-Siena also has looked stronger through the season, after the Braves beat St. Margaret’s.
Fortuna’s league may not be very strong, but the Huskies have a huge win over 8-1 Orland, which beat Sutter last week. Moreau Catholic’s loss to American is off-set by the lopsided win over Piedmont, which has its own head-to-head victory against Justin-Siena.
Saint Mary’s and Fort Bragg will be an interesting debate for the seventh seed, but we are favoring the Panthers due to the strength of their three losses (Miramonte, Moreau Catholic, Riordan) and the strength of their league. If the Panthers cannot beat Salesian this week, however, Fort Bragg will move up a spot.
San Marin and St. Helena will create an equally compelling debate for the nine seed. All three losses between the two teams are to higher-ranked opponents. This week’s game between San Marin and Drake will create a common opponent score, but the Mustangs’ wins over higher-division opponents Kennedy and Redwood might already be viewed as stronger than anything the Saints have on their resume.
Encinal’s overtime loss to Bishop O’Dowd will help the Jets if they beat Berkeley this week, while Hercules doesn’t have any real quality wins. Del Norte’s loss to Eureka hurts the Warriors, but the strength of schedule is still much greater than Harker’s. It will be interesting to see if Healdsburg actually applies after losing its last four games. The Greyhounds also have a loss to Lower Lake.
Drake will get in if they can beat San Marin this week, and could even move into the top 12. Kennedy needs a win to become eligible, but faces Swett in the season finale.
Eligible: Marin Catholic, Cardinal Newman, Fortuna, Moreau Catholic, Piedmont, Justin-Siena, St. Helena, Saint Mary’s, Fort Bragg, San Marin, Del Norte, Hercules, Encinal, Harker, Lower Lake, Healdsburg
Win one: Drake, Kennedy-Richmond
Mathematically eliminated: Arcata, Elsie Allen, Kelseyville, McKinleyville, El Molino
DIVISION V
Projected Seeds:
1. Berean Christian (8-1)
2. John Swett (8-1)
3. St. Bernard’s (8-1)
4. Cloverdale (7-2)
5. Valley Christian-Dublin (7-2)
6. Ferndale (5-4)
7. Stellar Prep (5-3)
8. Salesian (4-5)
9. Middletown (4-4)
10. Willits (5-4)
11. St. Vincent (2-7)
12. California School for the Deaf (5-4)
13. Livermore Valley Charter Prep (5-3)
Comments: With Cloverdale’s loss to Middletown, the win over Berean Christian no longer carries head-to-head win, since Berean beat the Mustangs. That means a red-hot Berean Christian, which is a heavy favorite to finish an undefeated run through the TCAL-Stone division this week, is our top choice as the top seed. The wins over Swett, Valley Christian, and Salesian all outweigh St. Bernard’s two wins over Ferndale.
Swett lost by one point to Berean, and seems like a logical choice for the two seed, also with wins over Valley Christian and Salesian. St. Bernard’s has a lone loss to Justin-Siena, and cannot drop lower than the three seed. Cloverdale still has the win over Berean Christian in the common opponent argument against Valley Christian, which stays ahead of Ferndale with its head-to-head win in that game.
Ferndale has a win over Stellar Prep, which locked up the BFL title with a win over Harker last week. Salesian would move ahead of Stellar Prep if it can beat Saint Mary’s this week, and should stay ahead of Middletown regardless after beating the Mustangs earlier this season.
Willits became eligible with its win over Lower Lake, and also has a win over St. Vincent, which has a win over CSD. CSD became eligible with its over Emery, which is who St. Vincent needs to beat this week in order to qualify. LVCP became eligible after beating Encina last week.
Eligible: Cloverdale, Berean Christian, John Swett, St. Bernard’s, Valley Christian, Ferndale, Stellar Prep, Salesian, Clear Lake, Middletown, Willits, California School for the Deaf, Livermore Valley Charter Prep
Win one: St. Vincent-Petaluma
Mathematically eliminated: St. Patrick-St. Vincent, South Fork, Hoopa Valley, Emery
